Energy-Conservation Route Of Power Generation Industry Based On Low-Carbon Economy

Under the International background of global warming, energy shortages and worsening pollution, the development of low-carbon economy with low power consumption and lower emissions to achieve sustainable development is becoming a common choice for the world economic development. Low-carbon economy is a new choices, new opportunities and new challenges for China to improve the ecological environment and to shift the economic development mode. As a department with the largest energy consumption and CO2emissions, the benign development of power generation industry directly impact on the effectiveness of low-carbon economy. On the basis of previous studies, this paper conducted a more systematic study on the path of energy conservation and emission reduction in power generation industry based on low-carbon economy:(1) Historical data is the fundation of planning the path on energy conservation and emission reduction in power generation industries, this paper took a comprehensive review of the achievements and existing problems of energy conservation and emission reduction in China's power industry during the past ten years, and developed an analysis of the potential of energy conservation and emission reduction in power generation industry, lastly determined a realistic starting point of planning the path on energy conservation and emission reduction in power generation industries based on low-carbon economy.(2) Power demand forecast is the prerequisite for designing the path on energy conversation and energy reduction in power generation industies under the context of low-carbon economy. After analyzed the characteristics and influencing factors of electricity demand forecast, this paper built a optimal combination forecasting model based on regression analysis, support vector machine improved by leapfrog, improved gray predictionand, then, adopted this model to predict the demand for electricity from2012to2020. The forecasting results were the most important data for planning the development of the power generation industry under the context of low-carbon economy, so as to realize energy conservation and emission reduction.(3) The thesis designed two paths on energy conservation and emission reduction in power generation industry based on low-carbon economy, which are the path of low-carbon power structure optimization and the path of low-carbon technology innovation of fossil energy power generation. The first path was mainly analyzed because it is the fundation to solve the problem of the lower carbon, energy conservation and emission reduction development of the power generation industry. Based on the analysis of planning principle for low-carbon power generation, this essay established an optimization model for low-carbon power generation structure by adopting the multi-objective decision-making method. Then an empirical analysis was carried out to quantitatively analyze the data, after the optimization from2012to2020, of power structure, input costs, contribution of CO2emissions and other pollutants emission reduction. The second path solved the problem of low-carbon technology and energy conservation methods of fossil energy power generation, discussed the function of low-carbon innovation, obstacles to development and development planning, and lastly analyzed the progress of the implementation of various innovative technologies from2012to2020.(4) From the perspective of the industry regulator, this parer reaserched the evaluation system of energy conservation and emission reduction in the power generation industry based on low-carbon economy, for the purpose of guaranteeing the work of energy conservation and emission reduction is effectively implemented in power generation industry. This chapter built an evaluation system based on low-carbon economy, and established a comprehensive evaluation model by improved osculating method. With this model, this paper conducted an empirical research analyzed the existing conditions of low-carbon, energy conservation and emission reduction development of power generation industry in eastern China region from the year2006to2010.(5) A series of policy recommendations were put forward to achieve a low-carbon and energy conversation development of power industry.On the basis of low-carbon economy theory, energy conservation and emission reduction theory, and industrial development theory, this paper carried out a comprehensive and systematic survey on the energy conservation and emission reduction through the integrated application of electricity demand forecasting methods, multi-objective decision-making technology, and comprehensive benefits evaluation method. Specific research methods included:literature review research methods, the combining of quantitative and qualitative method, inductive and deductive method, key research and systematic study, theoretical research and empirical analysis from2006to2010.The principle innovation points are show as follows:(1) Built the optimization combination forecasting model for power demand forecast based on the leapfrog algorithm and the context of low-carbon economy. As influencing factors, the power consumption per unit of GDP was introduced into the model. Also the regression analysis, support vector machines improved by leapfrog algorithm and improved gray prediction were combined to be the predict method, and use the leapfrog algorithm to optimize the weigh of the combination method. With a higher prediction accuracy, the model is more in line with the targets of low-carbon development, and lay a good basis for further study on energy saving and emission reduction in the power generation industry.(2) Designed two paths on energy conservation and emission reduction based on low-carbon economy, respectively the low-carbon power structure optimization path and the fossil energy low-carbon technology innovation path. On the view of the first path, multi-objective decision-making method was used to analyze the optimization of power structure based on low-carbon emission, among which, the minimum CO2emissions and the minimun total cost as the objective function, the electricity demand, spare capacity, pollutant emissions, the largest installed capacity of renewable energy as the constraints for power structure optimization. The optimization results considered the effect of CO2emission reduction as well as the cost-effectiveness.(3) Established an evaluation system of energy conservation and emission reduction in power generation industry. The evaluation system creatively introduced a series of relevant indexess on low carbon and energy conservation, and adopted the modified osculating value method to build a comprehensive evaluation model.(4) Put forward policy recommendations of path realization of energy conservation and emission reduction in power industry under the background of low-carbon economy, which mainly includes four aspects:perfecting legal laws and regulations, improving the economic policies, building the market mechanisms and strengthening the supervision work.Based on the empirical analysis, this article verified the the feasibility and effectiveness of the path on energy conservation and emission reduction in power generation industry under the background of low-carbon economy. It is of great practical significance and provides reference for planning the development of power generation industry.