Energy Demand And Supply In The Process Of China's Urbanization

Energy is the important material base for urbanization development. But in the long run, China's urbanization faces energy supply challenges. Especially since 2004, contradiction between energy supply and demand is more obvious. Now China's urbanization is at its middle stage currently, it will keep faster speed continually for twenty to thirty years in the future. So whether energy supply base for sustaining urbanization development can be established or not will be an incapable to avoid problem in the China's urbanization process.This dissertation uses theory of energy economics and urban economics, analyses the mechanism of urbanization influence to energy demand, analyses energy demand increase reason during urbanization process by input-output method, and forecasts energy demand in the future, puts forward some policies for saving energy demand and strengthening energy supply. The main contents and conclusions are listed in the following texts:First, this dissertation analyses theoretic base of energy demand, points out energy is an indispensable productive element of production process, at the same time energy also is an indispensable commodity of living. So energy demand can be divided of element demand and commodity demand, or direct demand and in direct demand.Second, on the base of above theoretic knowledge, this dissertation probes into the mechanism of urbanization influence to energy demand, indicates that during urbanization process, production and living mode's transformation can directly or in directly influence energy element demand and commodity demand.Third, energy demand increase with urbanization level rise, and can be divided into two phases. China's urbanization is at its fast develop stage currently, production and living need more energy, energy demand has new character, energy supply pressure increase continuously.Fourth, this dissertation uses input-output method, made SDA model, chooses 1987～2002 as sample period, analyses change trend and reason of production and household energy demand from time series angle. Structural decomposition analysis results indicate that production energy demand increases with urbanization level rises because of enlargement of economy scope, increasing of high energy-consuming industry's proportion in industry structure, and rising of ratio of input to total Output; there are four factors result in indirect household energy demand increase that is consumption gross and structure, consumption portion between urban and rural, and intermediate input-output coefficient change; but there is only one factor- energy saving technology advancement to decrease production and indirect household energy demand.Fifth, further analysis indicate China's urbanization will keep fast speed in the future, and production and household energy demand will increase accordingly, and energy demand structure will optimize. But China energy supply foreground is not optimistic. So when we make energy supply polices for urbanization development, we must insist on principle of "paying great attention both to development and saving and giving priority to energy saving".Finally, combining above theory and positive analysis, this dissertation puts forward some policies for saving energy demand, such as advancing energy use efficiency in order to develop energy saving potential by technology, transforming economy increase mode in order to exert energy saving effect by structure, and proposing economical Consumption way, in order to promote household energy save; and some policies for strengthening energy supply, such as developing clean coal technology in order to advance coal supply quality; making the best use of international resource in order to ease pressure of oil and gas shortage, actively developing renewable energy in order to realize energy multi-supply step by step, and strengthening infrastructure construction in order to improve energy transportation ability.