| Real estate: also known as the immovable property is defined as lands, buildings and inseparable part or rights and interests which attached land and building.Economic development is often accompanied by the emergence of a large number of buildings; real estate development is the inevitable result of economic development, and also can play a very important role in promoting economic development. As an important sector of the real estate industry will not only create a higher added value, moreover, can create tremendous employment opportunities, The real estate industry needs huge investments in the development process is an important component of aggregate demand. It has a direct impact on more than 50 industries. Therefore, the real estate is often decisive in the course of economic development, playing the role of pillar industries.Property constitutes an important part of social wealth, providing an important and fundamental element for the economy and social activities as a whole. It is an important force for promoting industrialization and urbanization. Real estate has a stable and long-term effect to the national economy and social development.Currently, the real estate becomes a pillar industry in many countries and regions, as a proportion of GDP by over 10%. According to statistics, real estate value accounts for about three-quarters of the total national wealth, among which the land accounted for 23.2%, buildings accounted for 50%. British real estate value is approximately 73.2% of the national total wealth. For example, property values increased as a proportion of GDP has remained at 11%-12% from 1987 to 2000. In several developed states, the real estate increased value to GDP is as high as 14%-15%. In 2000, California real estate values increased as much as 209 billion U.S. dollars, accounting for 15.5% of local GDP; New York real estate increased value reached 111 billion U.S. dollars in 2000, accounted for 13.9% of local GDP. The mid-to-late 1990s, the data is 10% for Japan, 11% for Chinese Taiwan, 19% for Chinese Hong Kong, and 8% South Korea.In China, the real estate industry has become an important component of the national economy. In many cities and districts, the property has become an important engine of economic development. In Shanghai, from the start of the real estate industry since 2000, the added value of the property as a proportion of GDP has increased progressively 8.4% in 2004; despite the impact of macro-control of real estate, the proportion has declined, but remained above the 8% level in 2005. Total building area has more than 600 million square meters, if counted as 5,000 yuan per square meter, the total value reaches more than three trillion yuan. This shows that the real estate industry occupies an extremely important position of the national economic development scale.However, due to the domestic and external impact, the real estate industry will form the cycle fluctuations, some of the problems caused should not be ignored. Currently the Shanghai real estate is facing the following problems: the conflict between property development and lack of resources; the conflict of imbalance between housing supply structure and consumption demand structure; the conflict of housing prices fluctuation seriously impacting on housing consumption widening; the housing resources unfair intensified conflict; and the conflict of social security system for housing building lagged behind.Therefore, a correct grasp of the cyclical fluctuations of Shanghai's real estate, giving full play to the status and role of the real estate industry in the national economy, and reducing the negative impact of cyclical fluctuations in real estate, which are the purpose of this paper. Periodic fluctuation in macroeconomic theory is the theoretical basis of this paper. This paper proposes paths to reduce the fluctuations of the real estate cycle through mutual relations of economic cycle and the real estate cycle, comparison of real estate cycle fluctuations between China and foreign areas, as well as system analysis of Shanghai's real estate cycle fluctuations. This paper is divided into six chapters, the main contents include the following: the first and second chapter are part of the basic theory. Provide a theoretical basis for analysis of the real estate cycle fluctuations, through issue and the review and analysis of to the economic cycle and the real estate cycle theory.The third, fourth and fifth chapter are the focus of this paper. The third chapter, through a comparative study reveals the role of market played in the property cycle in foreign real estate, while the role of policy played in China real estate. Thus reaches the judgment that Chinese regional real estate is affected by the dual role of market and policy.Chapter IV using empirical analysis to analyze data, an objective reflection of the cyclical fluctuations of the real estate in Shanghai. The cyclical fluctuations of the real estate under the completely scheme system is very weak, under the mainly schemed and supplemented by market environment, the cyclical fluctuations of the real estate market reflected to a certain extent. The latter has an obviously fluctuations, while in economic conditions, cyclical fluctuations have shown to be very sensitive.Chapter V uses mathematical model to analyze the cyclical fluctuations of the real estate in Shanghai, while forecast cycle fluctuations for the future.Chapter VI proposes the path to ease the cyclical fluctuations of the real estate in Shanghai. According to performance analysis of the macro-control of real estate and foreign experience, to improve the performance of macroeconomic control is to solve the housing problems of low-income families as soon as possible; positive adjustments in the housing structure and stable real estate investment can further improve the management of the real estate market, so as to achieve a harmonious development of the real estate industry and social economic development.
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