The Application Of Emergy Theory In Land Use Planning

In the nowadays, land issues have become the important social and economicproblems which attract lots of attention. In order to research and solve the problems,every country in the world pays lots of effort on land use planning. The land useplanning is considered as a necessary technical tool. For a long time, land useplanning is done based on GDR Thus, people often pay much interest on economicbenefits while neglect the environmental benefit. Under this condition, a series ofenvironment problems are brought on.In view of this, emergy theory, which belongs to the area of ecologicaleconomics, is adopted in this dissertation. Choosing Hangzhou city as the case study,several results are founded in this dissertation:(1) Start from the relationship between the land use planning and theeco-economic system, this dissertation pointed out that the eco-economic system ofland should be the subject of the land use planning. Further more, the eco-economicsystem of land is a process of resource allocation. So, the emergy theory is the basisof the land use planning.(2) In the analysis on the input-output of the emergy during 1999-2004 inHangzhou, this dissertation adds the emergy which was brought by the lost of the soilwhen agricultural land transforms to construction land. Several indexes, such asemergy density, emergy per person, environmental burdens and emergymonetarization level are selected in constructing a land eco-economic evaluatingsystem. After that, this dissertation evaluates the sustainability of the eco-economicsystem in Hangzhou and points out the existing problems in the current land usesystem.(3) After analyzing the emergy in the eco-economic system of land, this researchuses BP neural network, grey model, deducing theory and ration method to get fourscenarios. Based on these results, the dissertation analyzes the emergy input-output of the four scenarios and evaluates the emergy indexes. The best scenario is the oneforecasted by using BP neural network.(4) Compared with the previous appraisal methods, the result shows that, ifusing the infrastructure to sustain the feasibility analysis, the selected scenario islikely to be the one with the biggest construction land area, for example, the possibleselected scenario will be the theoretical deductive method and land ration method in2010, moreover, the grey model method will be selected in 2020. Whereas theselected scenario using the emergy analysis has no direct relation with the area ofconstruction land, it is the optimum scenario of compositive benefit.(5) Introducing the concept of land use capability, and making more appraisalwith the selected scenario. We use the GIS to calculate the residual space ofconstruction land of Hangzhou, and factor evaluation of topography and geologicaldisaster were carried out, the result shows that construction land capability ofHangzhou is 1553 km~2, it is much bigger than the selected scenario, and it is feasibleto protect cultivated land,ecological sensitive area and main water area.(6) Due to the ecological economic risk existing in the character of land useplanning, we make an elementary explore to establish an ecological economicearly-warning system on land use planning based on emergy analysis. First of all, wediscuss the concept of ecological economic early-warning of land use planning, basedon this, choosing eight indexes to establish the ecological economic early-warningindex system, such as the index of total emergy input/output,emergy usingintensivism degree and carrying capacity of environments. Finally the alert Intervalsare confirmed, based on this, we establish an ecological economic early-warningsystem on land use planning using emergy analysis.