China Rural Labor Migration's Mechanism, Motivation And Obstacles

With publication of four continuous"No.1 Documents"over the period of 2004 and 2007, we find that our new government is paying more and more emphasis on issues concerning agriculture, countryside and farmers. From the way of development and the experiences in industrialized countries, it has been proved that industrialization is an important factor that affects issues concerning agriculture, countryside and farmers and even a nation's economic development. For each country, it is commonly and unavoidable that workforce will transfer from traditional sectors (such as agricultural industry) to modern sectors (such as modern industry and services). This is also an only way to realize"modern economy growth". Rural labor migration is not only a crucial issue we must face on the way to industrialization but also a basic solution to solve issues concerning agriculture, countryside and farmers in China.This thesis is theoretical and empirical analysis. It explores the theory of surplus rural labor migration. To be specific, it tries to provide a frame and methods to describe and explain the internal mechanism, basic motivation and obstacles to labor migration in China. Both macro-data and micro-data in China are used to support and prove theories and the frame in the paper. This thesis adopts some modern economic pattern such as Partial Equilibrium, General Equilibrium, static equilibrium and dynamic equilibrium to establish theoretical frame of labor migration from the approaches of neoclassicism, structuralism and behaviorism respectively. And a further empirical analysis has been undertaken to completely study both micro-factors and macro-factors affected labor migration. Especially, by using Dynamic Recursion, Game theory and Econometric analysis, it combines traditional rural economic questions with the concepts of modern economics perfectly so that it further combines internal economic growth with rural labor migration and rural economic development systematically, which improve the labor migration theory as a significant complement. This thesis includes four parts:The first part of this thesis includes three chapters which provide the theoretical and practical basis for the whole thesis. It mainly discusses the relevant background situation, the reason why we need study this issue and its theoretical and practical significance. This part firstly reviews all the fundamental theories and current studies abroad and at home. It especially reviewed the mechanism, motivations and obstacles to labor migration. Then it analyzed the history, current situation and trend of labor migration in China, and summarized its features and the main problems existed.The second part is from Chapter 4 to Chapter 5, which illustrates some theoretical models and empirical study based on neoclassicism methods. Maximize reasonable farmers'income is the hypothesis in this part. Based on this hypothesis, the writer builds micro-model of labor migration mechanism, motivations and obstacles from the views of Partial Equilibrium of modern economics and Game Theories. And then more than one Probit models have been constructed by using the methods of Econometrics. The data used in this part comes from the stable survey offices in countryside and the results of surveys undertaken in rural area by the writer. These Probit models set up by the writer support the theoretical model and the thesis's findings, especially empirically analyzed the relationship between a series of variables (absolute income, income gap, relative poverty, employment distance, employ risks, adapt in the town, technical skills obtained, agricultural tax, labor cost, census register system, employment opportunities, and social information network, etc.) and surplus rural labors migration in rural area.The third part is the Chapter 6 and Chapter 7, which has established some theoretical models. It also an empirical analysis from the view of structuralism approaches. Under the hypothesis of Dual-economy, this part builds static and dynamic Partial Equilibrium model and General Equilibrium model about labor migration mechanism, motivations and obstacles. And then it uses methods of Econometrics and the relevant data from China Statistics Yearbook to set up multi-line regressive models, which proves theoretical model and the conclusion. In particular, it empirically proved the relationship between a series of variables (economic growth, industry structures, agricultural factors input and technology improvement, industry factors input and technology development, etc.) and surplus rural labor migration.The following part is Chapter 8, which is the theoretical study and empirical analysis based on behaviorism methods. This part firstly establishes a general PROBIT model by using Econometrics methods. Data used in this part comes from the stable survey offices in rural area. It mainly analyzes how farmer household features (household type and whether the family member is an official or not) and individual features (gender, age and so on) effect labor migration. Using micro-description methods, it further analyzes how the variables like age, gender, education background, regional differences and other individual features take impact on labor migration (including motivations, obstacles, ways, income, cost and risky, etc.)This last part is Chapter 9, which is conclusion and summary. It draws the conclusions of the whole thesis, and proposes a series of suggestions on how to promote surplus rural labor migration in our country. They mainly include that enhance small-size town establishment, improve job market, reform census registration, ensure social security, develop education in rural area, invest more healthcare support, reform farming land system, enlarge agricultural investment, and improve rural financial market, etc. Finally, it tells the weak sides of the study and questions a further study was needed.Findings of thesis: (1) Surplus rural labor migration in China has experienced a tortuous development. Especially before and after reform and opening-up, its differences in different periods mainly reflected from its features, effect factors, current forms, etc. (2) The basic mechanism of surplus rural labor migration is the mechanism of marketing economic resources (elements) allocation. And the basic cause is the income gap between non-agricultural citizen and agricultural person; the basic hurdle is lack of human resources and the restraint of system. (3) Migrant worker is likened to be reasonable economic individual, which always decide their migration according to the principle of income and utility maxims. However there are many factors that will affect their migration which is including both economic and non-economic elements, both substantial and spiritual factors. For example, cost used for finding the job, income, other benefits from life itself in the town, technical skills experienced, census registrations system, employment environment, adaptation of city life, and employment risks, etc. (4) Total economy growth and economic growth in different sectors, especially the fund invested and technology progress in every industry, have obviously promoted labor migration in China. however, the basic and internal causes stimulate labor migration is a great amount of population in rural area compared with the comparative less cultivating land. (5) In terms of factors affect labor migration in rural area like motivations, obstacles, way, cost, income and employment risks, different individuals with different background features have some common characteristics as well some different points. (6) Migrant labors and those who deal with non-agricultural business in rural area are regarded as two different kinds of migration forms, whose effective factors also have some common and different features.Based on the study above, the innovations include: (1) In terms of studying system of this thesis, it combines neoclassicism, structuralism and behaviorism methods together to comprehensively build up a theoretical system about rural labor migration's mechanism, motivation and obstacles in China. It systematically sets up a theoretical frame which is from the following aspects: social structure, individual's options, individual's features, etc. (2) Regarding the method of neoclassicism, on the one hand, the former studies mainly adopted individual as their subject, while in this thesis, from the view of new household economics, it uses both individual and family as subjects. It especially studies how family features affect labor migration, which are in accord with new migration theory which holds the view that labor migration is a decision of the whole family but not individual alone. On the other hand, the former studies only take substantial factors into consideration. Instead, by using first-hand survey, this thesis creatively applies alternative variables method to study some spiritual factors that affect labor migration. For example, employment risks, adaptation in the city, adapt in the town, technical skills obtained, census register system, employment opportunities, social information network, and social status. Because these factors are difficult to measure, it is hard to collect these data, which may explain why such kinds of studies are seldom found at home and abroad. Moreover, it is a new and creative attempt to study labor migration by using continuous job searching models and partial information dynamic game theory. (3) Among methods of structuralism, this thesis uses dynamic recursive methods and analyzes Dual-economics from dynamic equilibrium instead of typical static Dual-economics model. The new findings are: there must be an equilibrium optimum rout during labor migration. Along with the economic growth, especially industrial technology progress, labor force in agricultural sector will transferred from traditional industrial department to modern industrial sectors along this optimum rout. However, agricultural employment distribution will remain relative stable when rural labor migration develops in a certain period. At this time, no mater how economic develops, agricultural employment will not decrease dramatically, which is defined firstly as"Rural Labor Migration Trap"by the writer in this thesis. Moreover, it is a new and creative attempt to study the ralitionship between economic growth in different sectors and labor migration by using ridge regression. (4) Based on theoretical and empirical analysis, the writer draws a series creative conclusion and meanwhile, proposes some suggestions. For instance, (1) the motivation leading to rural labor migration experiences an essential change, which is from passive push from country to active pull from the town; at the same time, the main obstacles switch from pull from rural area to push from the town. (2) Whether they are countryside dweller or not does not take an obvious impact on rural labor force employed in non-agricultural sectors, instead, it negatively affects rural labor migration from countryside to urban area. Therefore, if there are some difficulties to reform census registration system, our policy should firstly pay more attention to promote non-agricultural industry in rural area. (3)Since 2004, a series of policies like agricultural tax-free, crops directly subsidy which will benefit farmers appeared publicly one after another. These impacts on rural labor migration from countryside to urban area are not evitable. However, these series of policies take obvious effects on promoting farmers employed in non-agricultural industry in rural area. This finding indirectly indicates those new policies designed by our government take a positive effect on developing agricultural production.