Research On Productivity Of Manufacturing Industry In China

World economic development shows, industrialization is the starting point to economic modernization and the insurmountable stage in development for any one country, and the manufacturing sector has always been the backbone of economy for the developed countries, the level of manufacturing has directly determined the international competition ability of a country, the position in international division of labour and the economic status of the country in the world. It is very important for China to pay more attention to manufacturing to speed up the process of industrialization and build a well-off society. With China entering into WTO and the depth development of market internationalization level, plenty of transnational corporations directly transfer production link to Chinese market, when they is sharing the resource advantage of low cost of labor force in Chinese enterprise, we are highly impossible to study their advantage of production, technology and management efficiency in short order, on the contrary, our advantage in manufacturing field are disappearing slowly. Under this background, constructing the manufacturing productivity theory, the measure target and model system have important theoretical value and actual meaning.Looks over the western productivity theory development, it approximately experienced three steps,the early time productivity concept to produce with the productivity theory seed stage, the modern productivity theory development and the boundary productivity discuss the multiplication stage, the contemporary productivity theory development and the entire essential factor productivity theory establishment stage. In 1766 Kuina canonically proposed the productivity concept earliest, and pointed out it's function in the production. Adam.Smith expanded the productivity concept to the entire realm of production, at that time the productivity was the labor productivity. In the 19th century 30's, the western microeconomics has obtained the development, the work, the capital and the land were regarded as the all production essential essential factors. In 1954, Davies has published "Productivity Calculation", in this book, he pointed out the totle factor productivity should calculate all invests not the partial essential factors. This book has been clearly ascertained the meaning of the totle factor productivity for the first time. American famous economist Solow, was engaged in the economical growth theory research in 1950's, expanded the general production function concept, made it to contain the technology advancement function, then established the model of the growth rate of total factor productivity. Along with the 1980s non-parameters Malmquist productivity exponential method and so on , the many kinds of parameters or the non-parameter were stochastic or the non- stochastic method rapid development, the people discovered gradually that, the overwhelming majority enterprise is not the full effectiveness, in this kind of situation, the entire essential factor productivity improvement not only is decided by the technical level enhancement which uses, but also is decided by to the existing technical use, the display condition (namely resources disposition efficiency) improved, to the enterprise all are extremely important. The domestic and foreign experts use different method to calculate the total factor productivity.This article uses the invariable elastic production function method to survey the TFP, introducing complete market competition and producer's balanced supposition, uses the capital price, the labor force price, the work, the capital invests and output to estimate distribution coefficientδ, the substitution parameterρand the production elasticityμ, thus determines the equation. Using Jilin 1993-2003 years manufacturing the correlation data, surveys the Jilin manufacturing productivity.There are seven chapters in the thesis:Chapter One: Introduction. We identified the theoretical value and practical significance of the thesis on the basis of summarizing domestic and international related research accomplishment, mainly from the key social status of Chinese manufacturing and the urgent actuality of development, and had a total arrangement on the contents, logical framework structure and methods.Chapter Two: Theories on manufacturing. We started the study from the definition of manufacturing, analyzed the form and class of Chinese manufacturing, which can offer macroscopic theory support for the paper.Chapter Three: Theory and model of productivity. Total factor productivity is affected by both technology advancement and technology efficiency. We have done the research on the measurement of total factor productivity rate from the aspects of parameter and non-parameter methods on the basis of the introduction of total factor productivity.Chapter four: The research on the model of Chinese manufacturing measure. According to chapter three, the related theory of total factor productivity was applied to the analysis of Chinese manufacturing, variable choosing and data handling are the important prerequisite at demonstration analysis, the change of total factor productivity was come down to the result of technology advancement, accordingly, they were neglected, such as policy system, organization management, and other factor influences which can affect the development level of production potential.Chapter Five: The forecast of Chinese manufacturing. The forecast model of Chinese manufacturing productivity was established with BP artificial neural network. The training program, testing program and foreseeable program was compiled respectively by Neural Network Toolbox in Matlab applications. The forecast precision of the last neural network was elaborated through model comparison.Chapter Six: The countermeasure of Chinese manufacturing productivity promoting. The countermeasures promoting Chinese manufacturing productivity were analyzed, from several aspects such as promoting technical innovation ability, raising manpower resource quality, enlarging opening fields and accelerating the adjustment of ownership structure mainly according to the qualitative and quantitative research in the chapters overhead.Chapter Sever: Conclusion and prospects. The main conclusion was summarized and the later research direction was made clear aimed at the existent shortcoming in this paper.