| In the coming 20 years, it is the important period to realize modernization and build a moderately prosperous society in all respects in Liaoning province, and it also is the period that economic restructuring and social adjustment, pressing rural urbanization, and the constant improvement of the level of living in our country, critical opportunity period to revitalize North-east economy as well. Revolution change will take place in many fields such as social life, culture, and economy, ect, at the same time, all kinds of challenges in energy source would come one after another, an adaptive energy supply and demand should be adjusted. In the next 20 years, whether assure the sustainable supply of energy source in Liaoning province, economic and social development with it, and maintaining sustainable energy development in accordance with Liaoning province strategy, it is possible to draw up next-20-year reasonable and feasible development strategy in Liaoning province, this is the premise on which scientific and accurate prediction on the supply and demand of Liaoning province is based.Based on the endogenous economy growth model and restriction between energy and environment, the text researches on sustainable development under it; Besides, old pattern of system dynamics model is amended, modified system dynamics model, gray system forecast model, vector auto regression model and the change weigh combine forecast model are applied in forecasting total and partly amount indicator of supply and demand of Liaoning province; It analyses the relationship between the energy consume and the industry development applying the co-integration and the error-correction model; Theory and evidence indicated that balance between supply and demand in economics is suitable to study the problem of energy, and the unbalance between supply and demand produces a serious effect on economic development; Based on the fully analysis on energy supply and demand of Liaoning province, the text puts forward the actual energy development strategy.The First, this text discusses in detail analyses in depth the relationship between the energy and economic growth such as the demand for energy due to economic growth, the role of energy and dependence, ect,; Based on assumption of the endogenous economy growth model, economic growth is beneficial to improving the environment and energy source can ensure it grow, for that reason energy source and environmental factor can be neglected, this text views energy and environmental pollution as endogenous factor of economy growth model's analytic framework, comprehensively analyzed the endogenous economy growth model through the analysis of mutual influence between the three of economy sustainable growth, energy and environmental pollution.The second, from the angle of coal, crude oil and natural gas reserves of Liaoning province, structure and scale of energy sources products, the text analyses the supply present condition of energy of Liaoning province; From the angle of energy consume structure and characteristic of energy industry, energy consume, it analyses the demand present condition of energy of Liaoning province; Through General balance analysis based on the supply and demand present condition , there are some following problems in energy of Liaoning province: such as the high average energy consumption level, energy source structure dominated by coal, the low utilization rate of energy source of Liaoning province, the considerable proportion of energy consumption, unreasonable structure of energy varieties, the shortage of energy supply, improving technical level of the energy industry and energy environment problems, ect.The third, on the basis of the energy forecasting model of Liaoning province, targeted using system dynamics model, gray system model, vector auto regression model , the change weigh combine forecast model and equivalent weigh combine forecast model, it forecasts respectively medium and long term supply and demand of coal, crude oil and natural gas in Liaoning province, and a thorough analysis of a situation is carried out on that basis.The fourth, based on the analysis of the forward chapter, the main factors have the economic growth, the industry structure and the technology for affecting the energy consume. Applying the system dynamics model, the text analyses the affection of energy consume for the change of the economic growth, industry structure and technology. It discusses the relationship between the energy consume and the industry development applying the co-integration and the error-correction model. The main factors are the resources existence, technology and the production scales with affecting the energy production.At last, combining with the forward analysis of the theory and demonstration, the text puts forward the actual energy development stratagem: improving the energy efficiency; adjusting the energy structure; enlarging the investment of energy Indus-try; fasting the reforming pace of energy industry; strengthening macroscopically control for supplying the safeguard of the energy sustainable development.
|
PDF Full Text Request