Beijing Entry Gather Proliferation Of Tourist Flow To The Space-time Evolution And Power Mechanism

As one of the hot spots in tourism research, the study of tourists flow concerns researchers home and abroad for years. With the implementation of reform and opening-up policy, the inbound tourism of China has developed rapidly and is promising as well. Being the political and cultural center of china, as well as a famous ancient capital, Beijing has long been at the top of China in terms of inbound tourists and receipts. So to study the tempo-spatial variation and dynamic mechanism of the inbound aggregating and diffusing tourists flows of Beijing are essential and significant, which not only contributes to the theories of Tourism and Tourism Geography, but also provides scientific basis for the practice of tourism industry, tourism resource planning and exploitation, tourism marketing, regional tourism image building, tourist management, tourism products and routes designing.Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation [Project The Study of the East-West Progressive and Evolutional Mechanism of Inbound Tourists Flow of Representative Regions in China (NO.40771058)] and based on the statistical data of the National Tourism Administration of the PR China, this dissertation first defines the representative tourism regions of China, then with the aspects of quantity, market structure, direction and potential energy, the tempo-spatial variation of Beijing inbound aggregating and diffusing tourists flows is analyzed, including international, inter-region and inner-region tempo-spatial variation. With the use of Induction and Delphi Method, the core influential factors of inbound aggregating and diffusing tourists flows are concluded. As to the quantitative analysis of dynamic mechanism of tourists flow※(data sources:market research on 13 inbound tourism destination in China,2008) This dissertation analyzed the internal thrust, external thrust, pull, push and motive power of Beijing inbound aggregating and diffusing tourists flows with different market structures,and using the systematic dynamic model,the internal relation among those powers is also discussed. Besides, the trend of the quantity of Beijing inbound aggregating and diffusing tourists flows is simulated based on Time Series Analysis, Back-Propagation Artificial Neural Networks and Multiple Regression Analysis. From above, strategies for regulating and controlling the tourists flow are suggested.According to the characteristics of aggregating and diffusing tourists flows of Beijing, the dynamic mechanism of tourists flow and the forecasting and controlling strategy of tourists flow, this dissertation draws three conclusions as below.Firstly, on the characteristics of aggregating and diffusing tourists flows of Beijing. The aggregating flows in Beijing are mainly inbound tourists flows from source countries, including Japan and South Korea→Beijing, North America→Beijing and Europe→Beijing. As to the aggregating flows in Beijing from representative domestic tourism regions, aggregating flow from the north was significantly stronger than that from the east. Among them, Shanghai→Beijing and Guangdong→Beijing tourists flows are the largest ones. As to the developing trend of the aggregating flows of Beijing, on one hand, on the international level, the proportion of aggregating flows from Japan, South Korea and Southeast Asia shows a declining trend, while it from North America, Europe and Oceania shows an increasing trend. On the other hand, on the representative tourism regions level, aggregating flows from Shanghai, Guangzhou, Guizhou, Hebei and Liaoning show a declining trend, while those from Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Fujian, Guangxi, Shaanxi, Sichuan, Chongqing, Yunnan, Tianjin and Shandong show an increasing trend. In aspect of the tourists flow's market structure, there are some differences among different groups and different directions of aggregating flows. In general, it shows that people who don't have visiting experience in China are mainly single male, whose occupation are mainly professional and technical personnel, and whose educational level are mainly college degree and bachelor degree. As to the comparison among the aggregating flows'potential energy of Beijing, on one hand, on the international level, the aggregating flows from Japan and South Korea are still the major ones, while those from North America, Europe and Oceania have a higher growth rate. On the other hand, on the representative tourism region level, the potential energy of aggregating flows from Shanghai and Guangdong has been the strongest for a long time. As to the developing trend of aggregating flow's potential energy, Beijing's shows an increasing trend generally, while Guizhou's and Fujian's show a declining trend. As to the diffusing flows of Beijing, the largest ones are Beijing→Shanghai, Beijing→Guangdong, Beijing→Guangxi and Beijing→Shaanxi. Among them, Beijing→Shanghai tourists flow has the strongest potential energy. As to the secondary analysis of Beijing inbound diffusing flow, for most representative eastern tourism regions, the secondary diffusing flows are direct outbound, while the secondary diffusing flows of representative western tourism regions generally show the trend of flowing to the east domestically. As to the developing trend of the diffusing flows of Beijing, there is an increasing trend of the diffusing tourists flows from Beijing to other representative tourism regions, except to Shandong. In aspect of the tourists flow's market structure, there are also some differences among different groups and different directions of diffusing flows, but on the whole, it is similar to the potential energy of Beijing aggregating flow. As to the comparison among the diffusing flows' potential energy of Beijing, Beijing to Shanghai is always the strongest, which belongs to the diffusing flow with strongest potential energy. As to the developing trend of diffusing flow's potential energy, the potential energy of Beijing spreading to the Yangtze River Delta region generally shows an increasing trend in recent years, while that of Beijing spreading to the Pearl River Delta region shows a declining trend. Besides, the potential energy of Beijing spreading to Big Xi'an, Sichuan, Chongqing, Yunnan and Guizhou representative tourism regions show an increasing trend.According to the variation of the fulcrum between Beijing aggregating and diffusing tourists flows, it shows that tourists flows are approaching Beijing year by year, so the increasing trend of diffusing flow is stronger than aggregating flow. The Network Analysis of centrality, intermediary and structural holes indicates that Beijing plays an important role in Chinese inbound tourism industry. Generally, the tempo-spatial variation of the inbound aggregating and diffusing tourist flows of Beijing shows the orientation of economy, location and resource. For years, the developing trend of tourists flows of Beijing indicates that the diffusing effect is gradually strengthening, while the aggregating effect is weakening year by year.Secondly, on the dynamic mechanism of tourists flow. The inbound aggregating and diffusing tourists flow are influenced by four factors as tourists, tourism industry, tourism economy and other influential system. Based on the four influential systems, the dynamic mechanism of tourists flow can be reduced to a complex self-organizing dynamic mechanism made up of internal push, external push, pull, resistance and motive power. The internal thrust from tourists themselves is the central power for inbound tourists flows to diffuse to the west, and the pull from tourism attractions is the essential power, whereas the friction force from tourism channels is the push for inbound tourists flows to diffuse to the west. As to the case of inbound aggregating and diffusing tourists flow of Beijing, the pull is comparatively the strongest in all motive powers of tourists flow, and the push is weaker. The score of the motive power of aggregating and diffusing tourists flow of Beijing is between 5 to 10, which belongs to the major motive power. Comparing the motive power of aggregating flow with that of diffusing flow, the motive power of diffusing flow is stronger, which shows that the diffusing effect of Beijing inbound tourists flow is stronger than the aggregating effect, and it is strengthening continuously.Thirdly, on forecasting and controlling the quantity of tourists flow. From the prediction of the quantity of aggregating and diffusing flows of Beijing, the quantity will show an increasing trend, and the growth rate of diffusing flow will be higher than that of aggregating flow, and eastern region's growth rate will be higher than western region's. Finally, this dissertation suggests developing the tourists flow between Beijing and western region while maintaining the development of tourism flow between Beijing and eastern region. The regulation and control of tourists flow should be made in terms of tourism industry, tourism marketing and tourism economy.Innovations are made mainly from the three aspects below in this dissertation.As to the research methods, the Theory of Leverage in Physics has been introduced to study the tempo-spatial variation of the fulcrum between Beijing aggregating and diffusing tourists flows. Force Analysis has been used to study the motive power of aggregating and diffusing tourists flows of Beijing, Systematic Dynamics has been applied to analyze the relations among the powers of tourists flow, and Back-Propagation Artificial Neural Networks has been used to forecast the quantity of aggregating and diffusing tourists flow.As to the research aspects, this research divided the inbound tourists flows of Beijing into aggregating tourists flow and diffusing tourists flow. The characteristics of tourists flow has been analyzed from the following four aspects of quantity, direction, market structure and potential energy, and the international, inter-region and inner-region tempo-spatial variation are all included. The dynamics of tourists flow has been divided into 5 aspects as internal push, external push, pull, resistance and motive power, and Force Analysis are made on different ways of traveling, genders, ages, incomes, culture backgrounds and representative tourism regions.As to the research contents, the research defined the range and connotation of representative tourism region in China, and suggested that the inbound tourists flow of China be a multi-level declining pattern of aggregation and diffusion. The research introduced market structure and potential energy as two characteristics of tourists flow based on quantity, direction and time. The influential factors have been analyzed systematically, and classified as internal push, external push, pull, resistance and motive power. The research has forecasted the quantity of aggregating and diffusing tourists flows of Beijing, and the controlling strategy of tourists flow has been proposed.