Study On The Impact Of Demand On The Growth Of The Three Strata Of Industry Of China

Based on input output tables of china, this dissertation compiles china's non-competitive input output tables of the year 1981,1987,1992,1997,2002 and 2007. The non-competitive input output model is used to analyze the contribution of the demand factors to the growth of the three strata of industry. The dissertation utilizes the allocation coefficient to analyze the demand structure of the three strata of industry. The demand structure includes the intermediate demand structure and the final demand structure. The dissertation also uses the pull coefficient to analyze final demand structure. The final demand structure calculated with allocation coefficients does not consider industrial linkage, but the final demand structure calculated with pull coefficients considers industrial linkage. The dissertation also puts forward demand fluctuation elasticity to calculate the influence of final demand fluctuation on industry. Montgomery decomposition method, which is a newly developed input output decomposition method, is used in this dissertation to analyze the contribution of factors influencing the growth of the three strata of industry. The main conclusions of this dissertation are as follows:(1) From 1981 to 2007, the demand structure of china's three strata of industry has a lot of change. The intermediate demand rates of primary industry and secondary industry increase dramatically, while the final demand rates of primary industry and secondary industry decrease dramatically. In 2007, the direct pull effect of intermediate demand at the primary industry surpasses the direct pull effect of final demand at the primary industry; the direct pull effect of intermediate demand at the secondary industry surpasses the direct pull effect of final demand at the secondary industry. Compared with the primary industry and the secondary industry, the intermediate demand rate of the tertiary industry changes more slowly, so does the final demand rate of the tertiary industry. From 1981 to 2007, the structure of intermediate demand of the three strata of industry has a lot of change, so does the structure of final demand of the three strata of industry. More specifically, the subdivision of the three strata of industry has different intermediate demand structure and final demand structure. Compared with the demand structure of the United States, Japan, and Germany, the intermediate demand rate of the primary industry of China is in the middle, the final demand rate of the primary industry of China is also in the middle. Compared with the demand structure of the United States, Japan, Germany, the intermediate demand rate of the secondary industry of China is the highest, and the final demand rate of the secondary industry of China is the lowest. So the intermediate demand rate of the secondary industry of China is likely to decrease, while the final demand rate of the secondary industry of China is likely to increase. Compared with the demand structure of the United States, Japan, Germany, the intermediate demand rate of the tertiary industry of China is the highest, and the final demand rate of the tertiary of China is the lowest. So the intermediate demand rate of the tertiary industry of China is likely to fall, while the final demand rate of the tertiary industry is likely to rise.(2) The pull coefficient of consumption demand at the primary industry is much higher than the pull coefficient of capital formation demand at the primary industry; the latter is much higher than the pull coefficient of export demand at the primary industry. From 1981 to 2007, the pull coefficient of consumption demand at the primary industry had been decreasing, while the pull coefficients of capital formation demand and export demand at the primary industry had been increasing. Compared with the pull coefficient of final demand at the primary industry of the United States, Japan and Germany, the pull coefficients of consumption demand, capital formation demand and export demand at the primary industry of China are all in the middle.(3) In 1981, the pull coefficient of consumption demand at the secondary industry of China is much higher than the pull coefficient of capital formation demand at the secondary industry of China; the latter is much higher than the pull coefficient of export demand at the secondary industry. In 2007, the pull coefficient of capital formation demand at the secondary industry of China is much higher than the pull coefficient of export demand at the secondary industry of China; the latter is much higher than the pull coefficient of consumption demand at the secondary industry. Compared with the pull coefficient of final demand at the secondary industry of the United States, Japan and Germany, the pull coefficient of consumption demand at the secondary industry of China is the lowest, the pull coefficient of the capital formation demand at the secondary industry of China is the highest, while the pull coefficient of the export demand at the secondary industry of China is in the middle.(4) In 1981, the pull coefficient of consumption demand at the tertiary industry of China is much higher than the pull coefficient of capital formation demand at the tertiary industry of China; the latter is much higher than the pull coefficient of export demand at the tertiary industry of China. From 1981 to 2007, the pull coefficient of consumption demand at the tertiary industry had been decreasing, while the pull coefficient of export demand at the tertiary industry had been increasing. In 2007, the pull coefficient of consumption demand at the tertiary industry of China is also much higher than the pull coefficient of export demand at the tertiary industry of China; the latter is also much higher than the pull coefficient of capital formation demand at the tertiary industry of China. Compared with the pull coefficient of final demand at the tertiary industry of the United States, Japan and Germany, the pull coefficient of consumption demand at the tertiary industry of China is the lowest, while the pull coefficient of capital formation demand and export demand at the tertiary industry is the highest. Generally speaking, the pull coefficient of consumption demand at the tertiary industry of China is likely to rise, while the pull coefficient of capital formation demand and export demand at the tertiary industry is likely to fall.(5) Demand, price as well as the rate of value added to total input of industry are factors influencing the growth of industry. Of the three kinds of factors, demand is the most important factor that dominates industrial growth. Growth of the primary industry in China mainly benefited from the enlargement of intermediate demand, especially the intermediate demand from the secondary industry. Compared with the intermediate demand, the contribution from the final demand at the growth of the primary industry of China is relatively small. Fast growth of the secondary industry benefited both from the substantial enlargement of intermediate demand and the final demand, especially from the intermediate demand expansion from the secondary industry and from the capital formation demand enlargement and the export demand enlargement. Fast growth of the tertiary industry also benefited both from the intermediate demand enlargement and the final demand enlargement, especially from the intermediate demand enlargement from the secondary industry and the tertiary industry, and from the consumption demand enlargement. Generally speaking, the intermediate demands from the secondary industry are vital forces that pull the three strata of industry, the capital formation demand and export demand are vital forces that pull the secondary industry, and the consumption demand is the vital force that pulls the tertiary industry.The dissertation puts forward some suggestions about demand enlargement to give impetus to the balanced growth of the three strata of industry. The dissertation emphasizes that industrial linkage as well as the demand structure of different industries should be paid much attention when making policies of demand enlargement.The main innovation points in this dissertation are as follows:(1) This dissertation quantitatively analyzes the influence of different demand factors to the growth of the three strata of industry. Demand factors include the intermediate demand from the three strata of industry as well as the final demand, which contains the consumption demand, the capital formation demand and the export demand.(2) This dissertation proves that implicit hypothesis exists when choosing the competitive input output table to make total backward industrial linkage analysis. It does not have to satisfy the conditions when choosing the non-competitive input output table to make total backward industrial linkage analysis.(3) This dissertation does not use the constant prices input output tables to analyze the factors influencing actual growth of the three strata of industry, as the compiling of constant prices input output table is rather a hard work. With the price indexes of the three strata of industry, this dissertation chooses the current prices input output tables to analyze the factors influencing actual growth of the three strata of industry.