| Strategic emerging industries are the key force for a country’s long-term and healthy development in the future.The development and growth of strategic emerging industries can make my country more competitive.my country has achieved a new historical starting point of building a moderately prosperous society in an all-round way and entering the socialist modernization drive.In the "14th Five-Year Plan",my country has put forward a new development goal for the development of strategic emerging industries,that is,by around 2030,The development level and overall innovation and R&D capabilities of strategic emerging industries must reach the world’s advanced level,providing inexhaustible driving force for the long-term and healthy development of my country’s economy and society in the future.The final demand plays an important guiding role in the production and development of a certain industry.The final demand not only plays an important role in the development of strategic emerging industries,but also the rationality of the final demand structure for the development of strategic emerging industries.Also crucial.Therefore,in the "14th Five-Year Plan" period,it is very meaningful to study the impact of final demand on strategic emerging industries.Before carrying out specific research,this paper firstly combs the literature,defines the connotation of strategic emerging industries,sorts out the empirical research on strategic emerging industries and related research on final demand and industrial structure from different angles,and makes a comprehensive review.Then,it expounds the aggregate demand theory and industrial structure theory based on this article,and introduces the influence mechanism of each final demand on strategic emerging industries.Secondly,based on the industry classification standards published by the National Bureau of Statistics of China,this paper reclassifies the departments of strategic emerging industries,and divides China’s input-output basic flow tables in 2007,2012 and 2017 into competitive inputs for strategic emerging industries.Output table,on this basis,use the ratio split method to compile the non-competitive input-output table of strategic emerging industries.Third,use the input-output analysis method to build a model of the effect of final demand on the total output,added value,employment and labor compensation of strategic emerging industries,and analyze the strategic emerging industries by calculating the industrial correlation coefficient of strategic emerging industries.The industrial influence of the industry and the degree of dependence on demand.Finally,the structural decomposition model is used to measure the impact of the final demand structure,final utilization rate and technological progress on the structure of strategic emerging industries and the sub-sectors of strategic emerging industries.The research results show that:(1)The final product structure of strategic emerging industries is unreasonable,the proportion of consumption in strategic emerging industries is still low,the output caused by consumption and capital formation are higher than exports,and the capital formation caused by The output of strategic emerging industries is higher than that of traditional industries.(2)From 2007 to 2017,the added value of strategic emerging industries and traditional industries caused by final demand increased,and the pulling effect of final demand on strategic emerging industries gradually increased.(3)From 2007 to 2017,the compensation of laborers driven by various final demands increased year by year.Among them,the compensation of laborers in strategic emerging industries driven by capital formation increased the fastest,but the compensation of laborers driven by various final demands in strategic emerging industries increased the most.And employment numbers are lower than traditional industries.(4)Through the calculation of the industry correlation coefficient,it is found that the influence of strategic emerging industries is generally higher than that of traditional industries.Among them,the industrial influence of new materials,new energy and new energy automobile industries is above the industry average;the new energy industry has the largest inductivity coefficient among strategic emerging industries,and the demand and dependence of strategic emerging products are higher than those of traditional industries.;By calculating the production induction coefficient,it is concluded that the production induction coefficient of final demand in strategic emerging industries is higher than that of traditional industries,and the capital formation induction coefficient of strategic emerging industries is generally higher than the induction coefficient of consumption and export.The degree of induction of sex emerging industries is still low.(5)From 2007 to 2012 and from 2012 to 2017,the changes of various variables in the former period had a positive effect on the structural upgrading of strategic emerging industries,and the latter period may be due to the crisis of foaming and overcapacity.As a result,the proportion of output of strategic emerging industries has declined.From the perspective of these two stages,technological progress,the structure of the consumption sector and the structure of the export sector play a role in promoting the structural upgrading of strategic emerging industries.Each variable has different effects on the output of each sub-sector of strategic emerging industries.Generally speaking,technological progress has a positive effect on each sub-sector of strategic emerging industries,especially the new generation of information technology and digital creative industries,high-end industries.Equipment manufacturing,new energy vehicle industry,related service industries,etc.have made great contributions;the structure of the consumption sector makes the greatest contribution to the bio-industry,and the structure of the capital-forming sector and the export structure make the greatest contribution to the new generation of information technology and digital creative industries;other variables are in these two sectors.Each period has different effects on the output of each sub-sector of strategic emerging industries. |
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