The Motivation Decomposition Of Economic Growth And Industrial Structure Evolution

Economic growth and industrial structure evolution are classic problem in the industrial economy research,and many economists have conducted in-depth and detailed research on this issue.Earlier economists,represented by Chenery,studied the industrial structure evolution and economic growth in the industrialization process before the 1970 s.After entering the 1970 s,some developed countries began to enter the process of de-industrialization and the proportion of manufacturing industry began to decline while that of manufacturing industry began to rise.Correspondingly,in the process of de-industrialization,the drivers of economic growth and industrial structure evolution have begun to appear new changes.Therefore,this article is mainly based on Chenery 's paradigm of motivation decomposition in the research of industrialization to study the economic growth and the evolution of industrial structure in the process of deindustrialization.In the research of economic growth and structural evolution in the industrialization process,Chenery mainly used the competitive input-output tables of various countries and specifically discussed the structural transformation and economic growth of the 9sample countries in the industrialization stage before the 1970 s from the decomposition of supply and demand,found that one of the main characteristics of the structural evolution is the rapid increase in the relative importance of manufacturing industry,accompanied by the decline in the relative importance of primary products.The dynamics of economic growth vary greatly across countries and sectors.After entering the 1970 s,with the flow of labor and investment resources to the service industry,especially the acceleration of globalization,markets in various countries have become more open,trade connection between countries have become closer,resources can be allocated more freely in global markets and cross-border input and output are more and more important.Therefore,this paper uses non-competitive input-output tables,separating imported intermediate inputs from domestic intermediate inputs to specifically research the role of import intermediates substitution in economic growth and structural evolution.Based on Chenery's input-output analysis paradigm,this paper selects three representative countries: China(representative of emerging developing countries),Japan(representative of early successful catch-up countries),and the United States(representative of early developed countries),constructs a new non-competitiveinput-output motivation decomposition model,analyzing from four perspectives: economic development efficiency(value-added rate change effect),import substitution(import intermediate product substitution effect),technology level(domestic input-output structure change effect),and demand(consumption,investment and export).Under the framework of non-competitive input-output analysis,using the 1995-2015 input-output data of 28 industries of China,Japan,the United States.First of all,comparative analysis of the industrial structure among countries is made from three aspects: three industries(primary products and resource products,manufacturing industry and service industry),four types of industries(high-tech manufacturing,medium-high-tech manufacturing,medium-low-tech manufacturing,and low-tech manufacturing classified by technology intensity)and eight types of industries(divided according to the intermediate input ratio,intermediate demand ratio,and imported intermediate input ratio);at the same time,the non-competitive input-output structural decomposition model is used to conduct a horizontal and vertical comparative analysis of the industry structural changes;then break down the overall economic growth of China,Japan,and the United States And calculate the contribution of different industries to the economy.The purpose is to explain the current characteristics differences and the reasons for the differences,so as to provide theoretical and empirical suggestions for China's high-quality development,the upgrading of the industrial structure,and the reform of the supply and demand sides to enter the ranks of high-income countries.The study found that for the industrial structure of primary and resource products,manufacturing industry and service industry of China,Japan and the United States,there was a de-industrialized stage with a decline in the proportion of manufacturing and an increase in the proportion of services in 1995-2015.At this stage,the industrial structure was constantly being optimized;for the four types of manufacturing industry classified by technology intensity,the overall technology intensity of China's manufacturing industry was lower than that of Japan and the United States,but the proportion of China's high-tech manufacturing industry and medium-high-tech manufacturing industry was constantly rising;for the eight types of industries classified by intermediate input usage,the industrial structures of Japan and the United States were similar,while the industrial structure of China was different.Examining the growth driver's decomposition of various industries,it is found that China and the United States have similar pull factors in terms of demand,but Chinaprefers investment demand and the United States prefers consumption demand.At the same time,the domestic input-output structure change effect on various industries of China was mostly positive and the effect of the value-added rate change effect on the various industries was mostly negative.However,the domestic input-output structure change effect on various industries in the United States is most negative and the value-added rate change effect on the various industries was positive,indicating that China's industrial development is in the stage of technological level growth and efficiency decline,while the United States is in the stage of decreasing technological level and increasing efficiency.The contribution of each industry in economic growth was also constantly changing,generally evolving towards a more reasonable share.Finally,based on this,suggestions are put forward.From the perspective of final demand structure,a reasonable and stable domestic demand market should be cultivated.;from the perspective of the supply level,enhance the driving force of technology and efficiency.From the perspective of industrial structure,the high-import alternative final product manufacturing industry and the low-import alternative intermediate product basic industry should be regarded as the leading industries for the optimization and upgrading of China's industrial structure.At the same time,the low-import alternative intermediate product basic industry should be cultivated and developed to promote the overall optimization and upgrading of industrial structure.In the process of industrial upgrading,different industries need to be treated according to the situation,and different stimulus measures should be taken according to the characteristics of the industry.