Study Of Risk Analysis And Accident Rescue For The Power System In Chemical Industry Park

Power supply and distribution engineering in a chemical industry park is an important part among communal engineering facilities, which undertakes the important task of power transmission to enterprises in the park. This thesis intends to study the layout from the perspective of risks, power supply and distribution engineering evaluation, and accident rescue.Economical layout of the power supply and distribution system, which also meets risk requirements, can be obtained based on the proposal of the power supply system arrangement with consideration of risks. Firstly, statistics of cable failure rate are recorded. Then, the ARIMA model and exponential smoothing model are used to predict and analyze the data of seasonal failure rate. Thereafter, the power outage probability model is established. The power outage probability model and power outage loss model are used to build the ‘pan de-energized risk model’. Based on costs of power supply and distribution engineering, the power supply layout model is built, and the Genetic Algorithms are used to calculate the model. Finally, C# is applied to develop the power supply and distribution global layout system. As for local layout, the software AUTODYN and FDS are used to simulate influence range of explosion and fire, on the purpose of obtaining safe distances among the power distribution facilities. After that, the ArcGIS geometric network is applied to confirm the fragile components in the power supply and distribution system and effects of power outage.Safety evaluation of power supply and distribution system in the chemical industry park mainly focuses on power distribution, power cables and the park enterprises, which are studied by the power distribution layout. It includes establishment of index system and design of evaluation method. For the index system, three evaluation index systems, cable laying, arrangement of substation and distribution facilities, and park enterprises electrical safety evaluation, are established according to related GB and industry standards. As for design of evaluation methods, fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model based on Monte Carlo simulation, and catastrophe progression evaluation model based on rough set and Monte Carlo simulation are established from a perspective of objective evaluation. Meanwhile, a dynamic evaluation model based on membership degree weight is established. And a model based on improving cost, a model based on index importance, and a model based on index importance and of cost effectiveness are established from a perspective of subsequent decision.For the frequent electrical fire and explosion accidents, emergency rescue in chemical park is analyzed from perspectives of general and domino accident emergency rescue analysis. Firstly, the ArcGIS is used to select initial rescue sites and the precise rescue sites, considering the three factors, such as enterprises electrical safety, nearby roads, and the fire and explosion hazard areas. Then the ArcGIS network database is used for jurisdiction region classification and rescue routes selection, which could determine the participation rescue sites and rescue routes. The rescue material requirement model is established based on Fuzzy C-Means Clustering, Case Based Reason, and Grey Relational Analysis. Under the constraint conditions, earliest rescue timing, least rescue sites, continued rescue, and transportation capacity constraints, the rescue material allocation model for domino accident are established based on the regular accident rescue model. In the end, The K-Means Clustering and Fuzzy Rough Sets are used to confirm the best opportunity for domino accident rescue, complementary, estimated time and affected areas of the power outages are used to confirm the best opportunity for domino accident rescue of power outages.This paper mainly studies the chemical park power supply system, but some of the research methods could be applied to other systems. For instance, the power distribution layout method could be applied to public pipeline corridor, heat transmitting system layout in the chemical park. In addition, some of the evaluation and rescue methods are also applicable to general systems.