Theory And Application Of Risk Decision Making Based On Entropy And Fuzzy In The Excavated Engineering Slope

With the rapid development of China’s economy and a mass of construction of infrastructure, which is especially widely known for the implementation of Western Development Strategy, the relationship of human engineering activities and soil is increasingly close. By the objective conditions of the restrictions, with a large number of the development and utilization of land, plus part of unsustainable development, a lot of slope stability problem is caused. To carry out risk analysis of this type of project, risk assessment on individual slope, the effective risk management, in order to reduce the accident caused loss of life or property, which is a very practical significance research topic.In this paper, based on the engineering slope in the water conservancy engineering, according to some specific characteristics of slope, the key technical problems is carried out on comprehensive study, discussion, and solution to maintain the stability in water conservancy engineering slope. Classification, risk decision making theory, methods of slope stability analysis and other aspects of the study is showed as follows:(1) The water conservancy engineering slope is related to the classification.The concept, the basic theory and calculation method of risk analysis is elaborated. On the basis of this, a slope engineering risk analysis methodology is established.(2) The decision analysis, certain and uncertain decision-making, risk decision-making analysis, multi-objective decision analysis theory, the decision analysis based on the entropy theory and other related concepts are described. The basic elements of decision-making system is discussed, risk analysis of decision indexes based on the Bayes is listed. The method of determining the index weight of multiple objective decision making problem is analyzed, concluded and summarized. and three kinds of methods of the decision-making problem,such as weight method, TOPSIS method and the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) were introduced. At last, the risk analysis process of multi-objective decision making based on the entropy theory is presented.(3) Under the careful analysis of the engineering geological conditions of the ditch material yard slope of Sanliping hydropower station, by elasto plastic finite element analysis, block local stability analysis and calculation of the excavation amount, without considering the unloading of excavation process simulation, comprehensive comparison of four schemes of displacement, stress, plastic zone, safety factor and the excavation amount, as well as the surrounding terrain and the difficulty of mining, excavation scheme two is more appropriate.(4) By the reliability and fuzzy risk analysis of the slope in the nature and under the excavated condition, we can draw that the failure probability of the landslide is very small and is not to be treated. According to the specific situation, the comprehensive control measures for the slope prevention is put forward, non engineering measures for slope risk management is also showed at last.