| Abstract: With the development of economic and integration process of transportation,the priority development of transportation was transformed from line or road connectedbetween the cities and regions to multi-modes connected in the node. Some planning anddesign focus, technology and the use of funds had been shifted to the building of nodesand terminals. Comprehensive passenger transport terminals were the important carriersof modern integrated transport system to achieve co-operation, were the key parts topromote the development of integrated transport. The coordinating of varioustransportation modes and the full play of overall function were relevant to how well thecomprehensive passenger transport terminals function. With the increasing volume ofpassengers, more and more questions had arisen in comprehensive passenger transportterminals, especially passengers were overcrowded during peak hours, and if there weresome accidents, the overall transfer system would be seized up and even disasters wouldbe brought out. Transfer service was the most important function of comprehensivepassenger transport terminals, any failure might lead to high social concern, causeenormous social pressure, and even bring adverse effects. Nothing could fundamentallyensure transfer service function of comprehensive passenger transport terminals, but tomaster operational status of comprehensive passenger transport terminals timely,accurately, and then regulate it to improve the operational reliability of transfer system,avoid the occurrence of abnormal status. Thus, transfer system reliability measurementand real-time monitoring of comprehensive passenger transport terminals were necessary.The property researches about the reliability of comprehensive passenger transportterminals almost focused on single equipment or facility, which lacked of focusing on theoverall reliability. These researches were only from qualitative analysis and staticstructure views, didn’t consider the impact of pedestrian behavior. But in fact, pedestrianswere the main activities in comprehensive passenger transport terminals, and pedestrianbehavior, an important factor which caused reliability changes, played a decisive role onsystem performance. In addition, though some pedestrian organization practices usedpedestrian flows control measures, there was no quantitative research of when to startcontrol measurements and how to grasp the degree of control, the availability of thesemeasurements also difficult to quantify assessment. The property researches, aboutpedestrian organization, including organizations of large pedestrian flows and emergencyevacuation, of comprehensive passenger transport terminals, ignored considerations oftransfer system reliability of comprehensive passenger transport terminals. Due to lack oftheoretical research support, managers could neither measure transfer system reliability, nor identify operation status of comprehensive passenger transport terminals.Therefore, the actual demand of passenger terminals operation and management wasanalyzed, and the advantages and limitations of existing researches at home and abroadwere summed up. On that basis, a complete framework was trying to be established byusing Systems Science, System Dynamics, Cognitive Psychology, EnvironmentalPsychology, Traffic Engineering, and many other theories and methods, and the transfersystem reliability of the comprehensive passenger transport terminals was associated withcharacteristics of elements, which formed the transfer system, to explore the relationshipand interaction mechanism between elements and system reliability. The reliabilitymeasurement models of single facility were established by research pedestrian trafficcharacteristics, facilities categories and characteristics, and vehicle characteristics. On thatbasis, the Petri-net model of transfer system reliability was finally established. The resultsabove were applied to reliability redistribution, automatic early warning mechanism andpedestrian traffic organizations strategy design. The study work contents were showed asfollow.(1) Analyzing and summarizing related researches at home and abroad, major studiesand technology was given. Choosing System Science and System Dynamics as theoreticalsupport, comprehensive passenger transport terminal was studied as a system based on itscharacteristics. The component of transfer system of comprehensive passenger transportterminal was given, and elements were determined. Furthermore, connotation definitionof transfer system reliability was pointed out based on system behavior and structureanalysis.(2) The effects of facilities, vehicles and pedestrian traffic characteristics on thetransfer system reliability were deeply studied. The effects mechanism of facilities,vehicles were analyzed through qualitative analysis and simulation, and the effectsmechanism of pedestrian traffic characteristics were analyzed based on studies ofparameters relationship of pedestrian flow and microcosmic behavior characteristics ofpedestrian.(3) Considering the connotation of transfer system reliability and the characteristicsof the system elements, the reliability measurement models of single facility wereestablished based on the results of effects mechanism analysis of facilities, vehicles andpedestrian traffic characteristics. Combined with the survey results, the calculate methodand recommended values of parameters in those models were given. Proposing modelingidea and judgment method of transfer system reliability, the Petri-net model of transfersystem reliability was finally established, and the applications and proof of models wereexpounded through case study.(4) The applications of models were studied from two sides, the reliabilityredistribution and early warning mechanism design. According to the characteristics of reliability allocation methods and the structure characteristics of comprehensive passengertransport terminals, the reliability redistribution method of transfer sysytem was proposed.Reliability models were dualized. The judgment method of abnormal status and statisticalmethod of monitoring data were proposed according to data analysis. Early warningmechanism was established and management and control strategy were presented.The main innovations of the research work were showed as follow.(1) The reliability theory was used to describe and evaluate the status of transfersystem, and Comprehensive passenger transport terminals were researched as a system,transfer system reliability was defined with a clear and quantifiable connotation.(2) Considering inherent reliability and mission reliability of facilities, choosingdensity and queue lengh as main parameters of mission reliability, the reliabilitymeasurement models of different facilities were established by study on the effects of theelements of transfer system on reliability and the effects mechanism.(3) Based on analysis of the flow lines and layout of facilities, the Petri-net model oftransfer system reliability was established.(4) The early warning mechanism was designed based on reliability measurementmodels and Petri-net method.These conclusions can provide theoretical support for operation status monitoringand evaluation, the abnormal state automatic warning and traffic organization ofcomprehensive transport terminals. |
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