Research On Urban Transport Demand Management And Congestion Pricing Policy

Traffic congestion is the inevitable results of the urban and society development. Recently, the economy of China has kept steady booming, while the urbanization, motorization as well as modernization process has undertaken rapidly. At the same time, urban transport demand grows tremendously and exceeds the supply of roadway infracture facility. The imbalance between transport demand and supply leads to the traffic congestion, which is becoming more and more severe. How to control and relieve traffic congestion is necessary and urgent. The conflict between transport demand and supply cannot be resolved only by relying on the increased supply, sinces the increased supply will, thereafter, induce the new transport demand. The imbalance should be solved from both increasing the supply and regulating the demand. Congestion pricing is one of the Transport Demand Management(TDM) measures, which can adjust travel behavior and regulate traffic demand through economic measurement. Recently, congestion pricing has been implemented in some cities with different patterns. The results have shown that congestion pricing can relieve congestion to some degree. Larger cities in China such as Beijing are currently considering implementing congestion pricing in the near future. However, many questions still remain such as to whether the city could provide necessary prerequisite and basis for the implementation of this policy. How to determine the reasonable charging fee? As the user of transport system, how will travelers be affected, will they adjust their travel decision and how much they are willing to pay for congestion pricing. Therefore, it is necessary to conduct further research related with TDM and congestion pricing.This study mainly focuses on urban TDM strategies as well as key issues related to congestion pricing. First, analyze the basic theory of urban TDM strategy. Summarizing the previous related studies, the principium that how TDM measures regulate transport demand and its application effects are analyzed. Focusing on congestion pricing among all the TDM measures, the economic theory of congestion pricing alleviating traffic congestion is elaborated. The successful experience and suitable application of London congestion pricing pattern are analyzed from several aspects, including urban planning, congestion pricing implementation and adjustment, the development level of transport system, people’s attitude and support, and measure performance. The so-called "Three circle theory" is used to analyze the feasibility of congestion pricing from three points, value, capacity and support. The necessity of congestion pricing mainly concerns how severe the congestion is and whether the public transit system can provide effective travelling alternatives for travelers with congestion pricing. The results could provide reference for government to develop urban TDM strategies as well as analyze the feasibility and necessity of congestion pricing measure.Second, conduct study on commuters’ willingness to pay(WTP) for congestion pricing. It is commuter who are the main contributors for traffic congestion, while also they would be influenced directly by congestion pricing. Commuters’ behavior response and attitude towards congestion pricing will determine the measure performance. On the basis of commute behavior and preference survey, factors that have significant effects on commuters’ WTP for congestion prcing are analyzed. Contingent valuation method and support vector machine regression theory are used to estimate and forecast commuters’ WTP for congestion pricing. It is found that commuters’ age, income, education level, work time flexibility, commute distance, commute mode, knowledge for policy effectiveness as well as congestion charging rate have significant effect on their WTP. Congestion pricing WTP could reflect commuters’ psychological and monetary affordability for congestion pricing. It is good for improving people’s acceptability and support rate for congestion pricing measure, if WTP is considered for determining charging fee, which further could enhance the measure performance. Therefore, estimating commuters’ WTP is useful for the practical implementation of congestion pricing measure.Third, congestion pricing method is the key issue of congestion pricing theory and it is explored from two aspects in the study, marginal external cost theory and game theory. The external costs caused by traffic congestion mainly consider the extra time cost induced by travel delay, the increased air pollution cost and traffic accident cost due to traffic congestion. The quantitative mode of traffic congestion external cost as well as congestion pricing model based on marginal external cost theory are proposed. In addition, it is considered to use congestion pricing measure and travel guidance information cooperatively to guide travel behavior and regulate transport demand. The congestion pricing information is regarded as part of the guidance information, and the dynamic charging strategy is adopted. Governor’s decision for congestion pricing and traveler’s decision for traveling are described as the game between governor and traveler. The game is the dynamic game with unbalanced information, and thus the dynamic congestion pricing model is proposed on the basis of Principal-Agent game theory.Fourth, analyze the regulating effect of congestion pricing on commute travel. The regulating effect of congestion pricing on traveling behavior is the base for evaluating the performance of congestion pricing measure. The influences on traffic distribution as well as traffic operation condition caused by congestion pricing are the basis and considerations that governors concerned to develop traffic policy. Therefore, the study investigates commuters’ combined choice behavior of departure time, travel route and travel mode when faced with congestion pricing. Commuters’ trade off among travel time cost, monetary cost and schedule delay are analyzed. Further, the change in departure time distribution and commute mode share resulted from congestion pricing are forecasted by random parameter logit model. Commuter decision’s sensitivity for congestion pricing are also analyzed.In summary, the study focuses on key issues related to congestion pricing strategy: feasibility and necessity analysis, congestion pricing willingness to pay estimating and forecasting, congestion pricing model, the regulating effect on commute decision, road network traffic distribution and commute mode share. The results are good for developing congestion pricing theory and promoting the practical application of congestion pricing measures. It could provide theoreticaly support and basis for government to develop reasonable congestion pricing program.