| With the rapid development of aviation industry in our country, many random factors have gradually drawn people’s attention, such as adverse weather, navigation equipment failure and military activities. These random uncontrollable factors which affect the sector flow management have become one of the most significant factors constraining the sector flow. How to break through the sector’s fixed limits of single operation, and accurately and reasonably assess sector capacity under different operating scenarios is a new challenge and difficult problem in air traffic management. Multi-scenario sector capacity assessment can effectively balance the airspace resources, and provide more flexible theoretical basis for capacity and flow management strategy under various operation circumstances. In actual operation, sector is often affected by random factors and its status frequently changes. Thus, multi-scenario sector capacity evaluation will be the trend for future research.With sector capacity evaluation as the main research purpose, multi-scenario demarcation as the entry point, controller workload-based capacity assessment outcome as the benchmark, based on weather impact traffic index and grey network algorithm, the paper proposes a multi-scenario sector capacity assessment method. First, it introduces the significance of multi-scenario sector capacity research, summarizes the current research situation both at home and abroad, and generalizes the main contents and organizational structure; then the paper analyzes several common methods for controller workload assessment, puts forward a controller workload assessment model by considering the conflict between aircraft, analyzes the impact of adverse weather on controllers, and proposes sector capacity method based on controller workload model under adverse weather; next, it defines the multi-scenario in this paper, compares and analyzes a variety of common capacity assessment methods under adverse weather, improves the WAF regional generation algorithm and WITI algorithm specific to the actual ATC operation of our country, and by using SIMMOD for modeling and simulation, establishes a grey neural network model for multi-scenario sector capacity assessment with WITI value, sector flow, simulation capacity, weather coverage area as the input, and controller workload-based capacity value as the output. Taking No.3 sector of Hangzhou Approach as an example, it verifies the result of the multi-scenario assessment method. Finally the paper summarizes the main research results and points out the inadequacies of this research and the future researcf focus. |
