Research On The Model And Effectiveness Evaluation Of Emergency Plan System

The emergencies always are uncertain and unpredictable which are difficult to respond quickly and efficiently. But if the complete emergency plans can be published and the emergency response mechanism can be established and improved beforehand, the disaster consequences will be effectively reduced. After the emergencies occurred, according to China’s early warning level and emergency response system, it is necessary to start a series of emergency plans formed a complete system which is the emergency plan system. Emergency plan system is the guideline of the emergency respond at the first time. The effect of emergency respond depends on the operation Effect of emergency plan system. Therefore it is necessary to evaluate the effectiveness of the emergency plan system. In addition, the disasters may occur at any time and place which makes the consequences of disaster with the characteristics of diversity and uncertainty.Only having a good suitability can the emergency plan system respond to any consequences of disaster effectively. So, the effectiveness of the emergency plan system is face to the specific disaster consequences. Therefore, using the fitness of emergency plan system to the disaster consequences as the effectiveness evaluation result make the evaluation results more pertinence and practical. The main contents of this paper are as follows:(1) The basic research of the emergency plan system is carried out. By combing the concepts of emergency plan system, the study scope is defined. the structure and content features of emergency plan system are studied from the macro and micro perspectives. Firstly, The start-up mode of emergency plan system oriented disaster consequences is studied. The start-up mechanism and the evolution mode of emergency plan system were studied based on the systematic analysis of disaster consequences. The point, chain and network three different start-up modes of emergency plan system were proposed from the evolution time perspective and the structural features of each mode was analyzed. The conclusions provide theoretical guidance for decision of starting of emergency plan system. And then the evolving model of emergency planning system is studied. On the one hand at the macro level, according to the establishment of emergency plans, the evolving network models of emergency planning system in broad sense are proposed based on the two modes that drive the establishment of the emergency plan. On the other hand at the micro level, based on the content characteristics analysis, The evolution mechanism is extracted through the the empirical analysis, the evolving model of emergency plan system in narrow sense is proposed. (2) The emergency plan system modeling method oriented integration is studied. Combining with the emergency plan content features, the modeling method and modeling process of the hierarchical network model of emergency plan system are studied from the elements and its relationship based on the analysis of the emergency response process. A framework of multi-system integration is built based on the hierarchical network model of emergency plan system. In this framework, an integration model is analyzed and the pattern recognition method is proposed based on the specific characteristics of emergency plan. Moreover, the matching method of the different levels node between different systems are designed based on the model characteristics. The realization of integration process with different modes is studied from three aspects, the inter-layer nodes match, layer-relational mapping and integration efficiency which make different plans into one hierarchical network model and achieve the integration modeling of emergency plan system.(3) The effectiveness evaluation of the emergency plan system based on model similarity measure is studied. According to the systematic combing of emergency response, the universal template of emergency response is constructed. Based on the universal template, according to the acquisition of the disaster consequences under different emergency scenarios, the extraction and modeling method of emergency plan system template is studied under the drive of specific disaster consequences. Take the hyperedges as the measurement object, a hyperedge matching algorithm is proposed. Then measure the similarity between the model and template by calculating the fitness of hyperedge to realize the effectiveness evaluation of emergency plan system.In this paper, in order to optimize the emergency response ability of emergency plan system, the hierarchical network model of emergency plan system is proposed which can be integrated, optimized and managed. Basis on this model, consider the disasters consequences systematically, the method of the effectiveness evolution of emergency plan system is studies which can revise the missing in the emergency plan system processes at the micro level and optimized the architecture of the emergency plan system at the macro level. The research provides a theoretical basis to enhance the operability, flexibility and effectiveness of the emergency plan system in china.