Research On Evaluation Of The Effectiveness Of Emergency Plans Based On Process

As the guideline of emergency response, emergency plans gradually exposed some problems like content insufficiency, poor operability, and weak guidance after a series of emergencies occurred. How to revise and improve the published emergency plans has become the most important issue for decision-makers. Plan evaluation can fully assess the preparation quality, implementation process and results of the plan, and give feedback information to make recommendations for revising emergency plans. Therefore, evaluating emergency plans beforehand is of great significance for revising and improving emergency plans.Most of the existing researches on plan evaluation method are aiming at the comprehensive evaluation for plan, which cannot identify the specific defects of the plan. This paper set out from the point of view of process, constructed a four-layer plan model based on process; then taking emergency theme layer and emergency task layer of the plan model as the entry point, studied three evaluation methods for plans; The main contents of this paper are as follows:Firstly, this paper defined the effectiveness of emergency plan based on emergency response process; on the basis of analyzing emergency response process,constructed a four-layer plan model; and specified the research emphasis and evaluation framework of the effectiveness of emergency plan based on plan model;Second, starting from the emergency theme layer of the plan model, this paper considered the titles of the plan as emergency theme, researched the similarity between multi-plans through titles. Took42national emergency plans as the study sample, did data preprocessing, then clustering data using self-organizing neural network to acquire the similarity results between these plans; finally compared the results with experts’opinions, so as to evaluate plans.Thirdly, starting from the relationship between emergency subjects and emergency themes and tasks, assuming that all emergency themes and tasks are contained in the plan, this paper broke down the plan into sentences based on emergency tasks, and then evaluate the effectiveness of the plan using plan fault tree; took an earthquake plan as an example to verify the feasibility of this method, specified the defects of the plan and quantified the failure rate of the plan.Finally, starting from the relationship between disaster-affected bodies and emergency themes and tasks, this paper constructed the logical process of emergency response based on the disaster-affected bodies, and applied the logical process of emergency response to diagnosing which emergency themes and tasks are missed in the plan; took earthquake as an example, constructed the response process for human in an earthquake and applied it into plan evaluation.The features of this article are:this paper evaluated the effectiveness of emergency plans from the point of view of emergency process, which is in accordance with the characteristics of plan contents; the construction of emergency response process can integrate the scattered, messy emergency knowledge in the plan, which made the decision-makers get faster access to the needed emergency decision-making knowledge when facing emergencies, which improve the emergency response efficiency in further.