Study On Risk Assessment Of Social Stability

Social stability risk assessment is the basic work to meet our current and future needs of social security, carrying the experiences learned from each stage of historical development of our society, demonstrating the unity of social governance of historic and practical conception. In the current trends to deepen our reform, we need to conclude the reseache from all aspects and disciplines, to conduct theoretical and empirical integration. China’s social stability conception is turning from rigid to flexible, from absolutely to relatively, from periodically to persisitently, which requires the successful experience of the Western risk researches from psychology, behavior, to decision-making,with risk as the basis theory for research. We need to strengthen the introduction and accumulation of risk theory, continue to grasp the social risk characteristics of social stability, and enhance the theoretical and scientific fetures of social stability risk assessment, which is the starting point of this study.Only when we promote social stability research to social stability risk research, can we improve it to scientific and standard, and meet the requierement of risk thery and needs of stable reality. The pursuit of social stability through risk assessment should be a scientific pursuit of value. The stability should be after the adoption of the scientific assessment, to obtain the relatively reasonable practical understanding the direction of theory. At the institutional level, social stability risk assessment is a scientific system of practice, which tries to achieve realistic goals in the social policy field. The core is to constantly approach the risk nature of instablility by scientific assessment, to maintain the grasp of stability of risk status. In this study, we introduce the risk of theories, perspectives and methods, from current practice problems, to draw that the normalization, standardization and systematization of scientific principles is the direction of this system, at the same time the fundamental requirements of future assessment system.In order to meet these scientific principles, we must analysis deeply of realism and constructivism, expert assessment and public demand, the importance of index system and modeling for social stability risk assessment studies, in order to deeply recognize the process of improvement of this system. We has implemented the system of social stability risk assessment,which is the specialized assessment according to a certain program, a policy, or a technique, not a substitute for social stability risk assessment in a broad sense. Therefore, we can’t consider it the social stability risk assessment system according to the specialized assessment. In fact, the reason why current assessment lack of theretical design and coordination of index system, lies in we don’t have the direction of top-level system design, which must rely on the technical path under the scientific principle. These are the specific issues to be solved in the procees of implementation. The technological path of social stability risk assessment is based on the realization of risk evolution, and scientifically checking the time and space of risk outbreak, namely by strengthening systematic link between risk assessment, risk prediction, risk monitoring, and risk warning. Thus we can solve the unscientific, nonstandard problem in practice, and ensure the cognition of the different stages of quality and quantity of risk evolution, which means to grasp the dynamic evaluation of the nature of stablility. The innovation is to break the wrong tendency of dynamic assessment of the stable nature, drawn from the static indicators for a certain phase, so that we can truly improve the static analysis to dynamic assessment in the actual operation.Social stability risk assessment has become an important tool for promoting scientization and democratization of national decision-making, and key measure to reduce social conflicts. Under the new situation, for the matuere and improvement of social stability risk assessment system, we need to integrate the risk consciousness and stable capacity. It must be a continuous and systematic process social management system innovation is bound to be a continuous process of social management. Thus, social governance is the stance of social stability risk assessment system. The results will be decisive to establish a service-oriented government, improve the public service system, rebuilding social trust, and resisting the modern social crisis.