The Research On Population Flow And Economy Development In Shandong Province

Since the Reform and Opening up, Population flow has become a social phenomenon, in the past decades, it became a social norm from the institutional inhibition to obtain policy recognition. From the nationwide perspective, the main direction of China’s Population flow is from rural to urban and from the west to the east. But the eastern China has developed to the postindustrial stage and in those areas the Population flow has three characters: flow frequently, no obvious destinations and diversified purposes.Shandong is an eastern China province with a large population and strong economy also has the regional economic development gap just like elsewhere in China, its economic development eastern coastal area and economic backwardness western inland area. So the economic development imbalance caused the population and labor migrations. According to the sixth census data, there were 140 million Population flow flows in Shandong province in 2010. This thesis will research population and economic region status, the characters of Population flow in Shandong province, the economic factor impacts, the effect of Population flow and the urban economic development influences on Population flows to analysis the interaction between Population flow and economic development. And then, provide the recommendations for the reasonable layout of the economy and promote the reasonable Population flow, also provide effective reference for solving the similar problems in the whole country.Research on Population flow and economic development are the categories of demography, management, statistics, sociology and economics. This thesis will combine the knowledge of these disciplines to analysis the relationship of Population flow and economic development in Shandong province.This thesis briefly describes the overall status of population distribution and economic development. The population distribution is the result of many factors impact, such as natural, social, economic and political factors, and the economic factor is the main factor to promote the migration of the population. Based on the data of two census and Population flow survey, this thesis also analysis the size, the regional distribution and the characteristics of migrating population in Shandong province. The thesis researches on the relationship between Population flow and social economic development in two aspects: establish the multiple linear regression model to analysis the indexes which influence the size of migrating population and the development of regional economy and then analysis the relationships between them; analysis the impacts of Population flow on regional economic development, establish a production function model which includes migrating population factor. The model selects the variables of economic output, capital and human capital stock and uses logarithmic GDP as the regional economic output variable to find out the effect of the migrating population on the economic development. The methods of research include literature review, grey correlation analysis, multiple linear regression model, etc. The main data from China’s the fifth and the sixth census and the dynamic monitoring survey of migrating population in 2011.This thesis includes eight chapters, and each chapter is shown in below:Chapter 1 is the introduction which briefly introduces the background, theoretical and practical significance, research methods and the structure of this thesis.Chapter 2 is the theoretical basis and literature review. It provides the related concepts, theories and the domestic and foreign related research about Population flow and economic development for the research ideas.Chapter 3 is the analysis of the current situation of the population migrating in Shandong province. Analyzed general trend of population distribution and economic activities in Shandong province. The province has 17 cities and the density of population in each city is quite different. The density of population in developed regions is higher and the density of population in central and western regions is lower. In different regions, the gap of per capita income is relatively large, and the average income per capita of urban residents in the eastern region is higher than that in the western region. From the perspective of industrial structure, the proportion of the first industry in the western region is still relatively high, the proportion of the third industry output is low.According to the data of the fifth and the sixth population census and the dynamic monitoring survey of migrating population in 2011. It also comprehensively analysis the size, the regional distribution and the characteristics of the migrating population in Shandong province. The migrating population in Shandong province has two main destination groups: the coastal cities such as Qingdao, Yantai and Weihai and the provincial capital city group which includes Ji’nan, Zibo and Dongying. The range of age of migrating population is 15 to 40 years old, and the sex ratio of them is higher than the local residents. Up to the industrial structure of Shandong province, the most proportion of migrating population is in the second industry.Chapter 4 is the regional economic influence factors of Population flow in Shandong province. Ten economic development indicators which influence the Population flow are analyzed by factor analysis and clustering analysis. The economic development and income level are the main factors which affect the Population flow. The main destinations of migrating population are eastern coastal cities and central industrial cities.Chapter 5 is about the influence of Population flow on regional economic development. The population inflow has stability and lag positive effect on regional economic development. The higher labor population has a positive effect on the growth of GDP. Education has a positive effect on economic development, and the GDP growth level of destination is up to the education background of the inflow population.Chapter 6 is the urban Population flow and regional economic growth case study, taking Ji’nan city and Qingdao city as the example. The relationship between the characteristics of the migrating population and the economic development, employment growth, industrial structure and employment structure in Ji’nan city and Qingdao city are analyzed and compared.Chapter 7 is the conclusion, discussion and recommendations. This chapter discusses and concludes the relationship between Population flow and economic development, and then provides recommendations in four aspects.