Study On The Impact Of Hunan Population Aging On Consumption,Labor Supply And Savings

As the world"seniors waves"emerges in the world, China will face a aging population structure, Hunan province is one of the provinces that gets old earlier. Population aging fast and larger aging population are its main characteristics. The aging of population has become the inevitable trend. It will bring great impacts on Hunan's economy and social life. The paper analyzes the actuality of Hunan's population aging , studys mostly the impacts on consumption, labor supply and the savings. Main conclusions are as follows:(1) The actuality, characteristics and trend of Hunan province population aging are: high speed; large amount; serious empty nest rate;lopsided distribution of senior citizens; high dependency ratio; the population of Hunan province will age more quickly from now to 2025;the number of children declines fast;to the year 2025, the share of 65-year old people and older will reach 17.87%. Hunan province becomes one of higher degree of population aging provinces , but in this period , the total dependency falls gradually, Hunan province should grasp opportunity to develop its economy.(2) The aging of population in Hunan province will greatly increase the scale of consumption, and change the consumption structure. The thesis finds that the high degree of population aging brought about by the change of population age structure will reduce the speed of the increase of consumption, though per capita incomes rises. Population aging will reduce the future consumption scale and consumption ratio.(3) In the coming 10 years, the number of labor force will not decline, and Hunan province will have a sufficient labor supply, but the age structure of the internal labor force tends to aging.(4) The flexibility of the change of Hunan province working-age population's proportion on savings rate is higher than that of elderly population. The population aging caused by the change of population age structure will cut down the number of working-age population, then affects the savings rates. Before the serious stage of population aging comes, Hunan province should turn the savings to investment to speed up the economy development.