Research On Key Problems Of The Simulation Evaluation For Weapon Effectiveness

Effectiveness is an important index for weapon, and it is also a fundamental basis for the development, acquisition and use of weapon. With the increasing complexity of modern war, the weapon effectiveness is affected by more and more factors. In order to obtain the accurate and objective evaluation result of weapon effectiveness, the operational state of weapon in many combat situations should be analyzed. Since simulation is economical and safe, and it can simulate many kinds of complex war situation, simulation evaluation becomes an important method to research weapon effectiveness. How to ensure the credibility of the simulation model and improve the evaluation ability and efficiency are two key problems for the simulation evaluation of weapon effectiveness. This paper focuses on the two key problems, and carries out related research.The credibility of simulation model is the basis of simulation evaluation of weapon effectiveness. To validate the alternative models and select the most credible one when the reference output is complete, the validation and selection method of simulation model based on the data feature differences is proposed. The simulation output and reference output are divided into three kinds of static data, gradual data and fast data according to the data feature, and the measure models of feature differences for each kind data are given, which lays a foundation for the validation and selection of simulation model. The correlation among the feature differences is eliminated via principal component analysis and several independent principal components containing the most information are gained from the correlative feature differences to construct the data feature difference vector. Furthermore, the outputs of simulation models are divided into K kinds of clusters based on K-means clustering according to the data feature difference vector. Which cluster the reference output belongs to is judged based on Fisher discriminant analysis. So the validation and selection of the alternative models are realized. Compared to the classical methods, the method proposed in this paper can reduce the subjectivity of the results.To validate the simulation model and evaluate the model parameters when the reference output is incomplete, the method based on expert data is proposed. The uncertainty of expert data and the realizability of the method are adequately concerned. So all expert data are depicted by triangular fuzzy number that can be given easily in application, and the validation method of simulation model based on triangular fuzzy number is proposed. Furthermore, the evaluation method of simulation model parameters based on metamodel optimization is proposed, and the values of parameters are obtained which make the credibility of simulation model optimal. In the method, the participations of experts in the optimization process is avoided, and the optimization efficiency is improved for the reason that the dynamic simulation optimization is transformed to the static function optimization.The supporting technology for simulation evaluation of weapon effectiveness provides guarantee for the successful operation of evaluation. In order to improve the efficiency, versatility and extensibility of assistive technology, the integrative and flexible simulation evaluation method of weapon effectiveness is proposed, which realizes the integrative evaluation and flexible establishments of evaluation process and evaluation index extracting model. Firstly, the process model of simulation evaluation of weapon effectiveness based on IDEF0is built, and the E-R model for the process data management of integrative simulation evaluation of weapon effectiveness is presented. Then, in order to manage and share the two kinds of resources containing algorithm models and simulation experiment data in the evaluation process, the metadata for the two kinds of resources is proposed, and their storage methods are given based on XML. Furthermore, for ensuring the safety for the utilization of evaluation resources, an improved RBAC model is proposed according to the characteristics of simulation evaluation of weapon effectiveness, the E-R model for managing the permission of evaluation is given, and all kinds of roles and permissions in the evaluation process are presented. Finally, to realize the flexible establishment of evaluation index extracting model, the evaluation index extracting model based on frame theory, graphical modeling mechanism, storage mechanism based on XML and the operation mechanism are proposed.In order to realize the integrative and flexible simulation evaluation method of weapon effectiveness and provide evaluation environment for multi-user collaborative work, a simulation evaluation platform of weapon effectiveness is designed and implemented. Firstly, the detailed functions of the platform are designed after analyzing the use case diagrams, and the general framework and operation mode of the platform are given. Then, the compositions of evaluation database, experimental result database and algorithm database are designed. Next, the frameworks, class diagrams and sequence diagrams for the simulation evaluation subsystem, simulation experiment design subsystem, experiment result management subsystem and algorithm management subsystem are proposed. Furthermore, the simulation evaluation platform is implemented. Finally, the platform was applied to research an air defense system’s effectiveness from both single weapon level and multi-weapon level, and it assists researchers to complete the evaluation tasks effectively whose evaluation targets and objects are different.The resecrch of this paper brings strong suport for the credibility of simulation model in simulation evaluation of weapon effectiveness, and improves the capacity and efficiency for simulation evaluation of weapon effectiveness. This consequently supports simulation evaluation of weapon effectiveness in modern war with methods and technologies.