Study On Risk Analysis And Public Safety Assessment In A Complicated Urban Region

With the speeding process of global urbanization, the issue of public safety in cities hasbeen drawing more and more attentions and sets foreland of researches in public safetymanagement. Due to the extreme complexity of urban safety issues, extensive efforts havebeen put into relevant researches in recent years and efficiently enrich the knowledge in thisfield, while many relating topics are still need to be explored. Being an importanttransportation hub in the country, Xi’an Railway Station is the front door of Xi’an city withmillions of travelers coming and going each year, thus its safety management becomes acritical issue. Researches on risk analysis and public safety assessment in a complicated urbanregion (Xi’an Railway Station and its ambient region) will be helpful for people to understandthe urban safety issues as well as to expand applications and practices based on the researchachievements.A combined way in studying public safety risk control of complicated urban region withmicrocosm and macrocosm is put forward.(1) With the influential factors of public safetymanagement in the railway station region being analyzed, the method of Job Risk Analysis isadopted to semi-quantitatively calculate the relevant job risks of this region, which set thebase for designing a proper index system of risk assessment. The results show that theunderground parking and underground commercial area are the hazardous areas.(2)Investigation and statistics data of fire risk are analyzed in business world of Jiefang roadregion. The results show that the shopping area, hotel area, old community and constructionsites are the main dangerous areas, and the major fire risk factors are safety evacuation, firespread, fire fighting and fire safety management. The multi-level fuzzy comprehensiveevaluation method is adopted to estimate the fire risk and the results show that the mostdangerous area is shopping area and the most safety area is construction sites. A new way of technical support of experts in making proper judgments with quantitativeanalysis of embodied safety risks is put forward. The thoughts of performance fire protectiondesign are adopted for the urban public safety analysis. Various fire scenario of commercialarea in the railway station square is designed for fire and evacuation simulation, withquantitative results under different scenario obtained, partially based on the achievements ofquantitative analysis, significances of all assessment indexes are determined through expertinvestigation and judgment with improved precision and consistency of the conclusionremarks given by experts being achieved, and the weak links in the fire protection andevacuation system can be more easily identified.Based on the special circumstances of public safety at the region, three groups of indexesare employed, including infrastructure system, routine management of public safety andemergency management of public safety, to build the risk assessment index system of publicsafety in this area. AHP is selected as the method of decision making and comprehensiveassessment. Relative importance between the indexes is verified, and the judging matrix ofindex importance is established, then AHP method is applied to determine the weights ofthese indexes in the assessment. Taking the characteristics and pattern of historic developmentof the public safety situation in the region, the rationality of index weights is verified and thekey factors of risk management of public safety are identified.Based on the risk assessment of public safety in the railway station region, the energyflow network model of accident-damage under complex conditions is put forward inconjunction with the energy flow concepts among damaging bodies and damaged bodies,which provides a powerful way of analysis to pin-point potential weakness and control risksin public safety. In strategy analysis of urban public safety events, the combination ofqualitative and quantitative methods is proposed based on War game. The prearranged riskcontrol and risk control in process in public safety management is systematically analyzed toserve as a guide for the consistent improvement of public safety management in the railwaystation region.