Research On Talent Requirement Prediction And Development Of Northeast Old Industrial Base

The21st century is a knowledge, information and technology-driven economy era, and also is an economy era taking talent development as strategic core. Talent role in regional economic and technological development has become increasingly prominent and decisive, which receives great attention of government department. Northeast old industrial base once made significant contribution to national economic growth, but now it is facing economic restructuring and industrial higher development and other strategic tasks, and the talent is the fundamental guarantee to finish these tasks. Influenced by regional development and environmental factors, northeast old industrial base is facing the problem of lack of high-level talents and overall quality needs upgrading and other issues. Current research on talent management is more focused on the micro level, and the government macro-level of talent management research is relatively limited, which can not provide direct and effective support to solve the talent problem of northeast old industrial base.Therefore, based on considering domestic and foreign typical region talent development strategy, from the macro level researching talent requirement predicting method and accordingly design talent developing strategy has an important theory value and practical significance for northeast old industrial to improve talent management level and talent quality.Based on systematic analysis of domestic&foreign theory about talent management and talent requirement prediction as well as development strategy research context, defines talent and northeast industrial base, comprehensive analyzes talent status of northeast old industrial base, and reveals talent acting mechanism on northeast old industrial; analyzes micro and macro talent management content, objectives and implementation subject, etc., and refines the key of northeast old industrial base talent management-talent requirement predict and talent development, accordingly builds northeast old industrial base talent requirement predicting and development managing framework.Analyzes talent development strategy of the United States, Germany, Japan and other typical developed countries, and takes China Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta region for example, analyzes talent development strategy features of typical regions, further based on analyzing northeast old industrial base talent development strategy, makes comparative study and systematic induction of each region talent development strategy focus and the experience which northeast old industrial base can learn from in talent development system construction.Based on analysis and deduce of talent requirement predicting model design premise, and combined with combined with the linear regression model and dynamic three-factor model, constructs binary linear regression model; introduces gray prediction method, and based on the analysis of general GM (1,1) model and GM (1,1) predicting model with time-varying parameters builds simplified GM(1,1) model considering time-varying; using combination and contingency thinking builds a northeast old industrial base talent requirement contingency combination model combined with binary linear regression model and simplified GM (1,1) model considering time-varying to predict, and accordingly predict talent requirement of Heilongjiang province, also puts forward talent development key.From the aspects of strengthening talent training, improving talent development environment, introducing market and competition mechanisms as well as innovating talent management mechanism, the four-dimensional talent development system of northeast old industrial base is put forward, and the specific design of four developing dimensions are made, guarantee measurement of talent developing is also proposed.The study of this paper is benefit to expand the scope of human resource management and enrich content of human resource management, and also can provide effective method support and decision-making reference for northeast old industrial base to predict talent requirement and develop talent.