Reaserch On The Relationship Between China’land Pirce And Housing Price

The past20years, the development of China’s real estate market and China’srapid economic growth have the same step, China’s real estate become an importantengine of economic growth in China. However, the soaring of land prices, thesudden rise of housing prices formed a great hinder force to he real estate market andoverall macroeconomic. Analyze the underlying causes of high real estate prices,seek the path of healthy growth of the real estate market is an important issue needsto be urgently addressed in the theory and practice.At present, the analysis of real estate prices, land prices and the relationshipbetween housing prices is very rich, but Analyze the land transfer system as animportant factor in the real estate market prices of underlying causes was still a rare.In this paper, the effect the current town land transfer system on the land prices andhousing prices as the main study. Study the deep relationship between land prices,housing prices,"land finance", reveal the internal mechanism of land prices and highrising housing prices.Around this central theme, the paper tried to complete the following researchobjectives: frist, clarify the causal relationship between land prices and housingprices; second, from the view of new housing supply elasticity, clearly the extent ofthe land price on housing price; thrid, explore the tender, auction, listing on theimpetus of the land transfer system on house prices; fourth, from the perspective of"land finance" mining the deep-seated reasons why land and housing prices are toohigh? by learning form the experience of the development of the real estate market indeveloped countries, provide a valuable reference for the development of China’sreal estate market; at last, through policy intervention model to analyze the policy ofthe purchase prices, and forecast the trend of China’s housing prices.In order to achieve these objectives, the paper follows “the combine of thetheoretical model and empirical analysis”,“specification analysis and empiricalanalysis”,"micro analysis and macro analysis”. Learn on theories of domestic and international land and housing.build the "Q theoretical model of the real estatemarket investment," land-signal model, the multiple objectives of the threedepartments real estate market equilibrium model. Use the Granger causality test, thetime series model, the error correction model, the dynamic panel data model,intervention models and econometric empirical test methods, the use of micro dataand macro data, empirical analysis of land prices and housing prices in relationsbetween the two variables.This papar have the following conclusions:Frist, I believe under that our special land supply system, the increasing anddecreasing of land prices caused housing prices changing up and down, a causalrelationship between land prices and housing prices are not symmetrical, the price ofland whether in the short term or long-term, are caused by housing prices, buthousing prices are only in the short term impact on land prices. Error correctionmodel shows that in the process of rising house prices and land prices have a certaindegree of self-stabilization, but the premiumof land prices back to the larger long-runequilibrium level of tension, faster return to the equilibrium level, housing pricesrevert to the equilibrium level of speed relatively slow, and there are regionaldifferences.Second, I believe that the behavior of new housing development is theinvestment behavior. Weather increased investment can learn from the Tobin’s Qtheory, to analyze the dynamic relationship changes between the new housing supplyelasticity, the price of land and housing prices. Found that land price fluctuationsreinforce the volatility of the housing price, the supply of new house response todemand shocks more quickly, housing prices can more stabilize. Through simulation,the comparison under the given the impact of housing demand, housing supplyelasticity of land price changes impact on house prices: housing demand suddenlyincreased by one percent, if land prices remain unchanged, causing house prices rose1.9%, if land price changes, causing housing prices rose2.12%.so the changing ofland prices has exacerbated housing prices fluctuations, housing prices fluctuationsincreasing at0.22%.Third, I believe that the land tender, auction, listing as the basis of China’s land system in such transactions, information on land transactions is perfect, informationdisclosure is an important window for the government to pass the policy intentionsand the real estate trend, land transactions information can easily form a land pricesignals, as a source of information on housing prices cause housing prices. Pricediscovery theory for bidding, auction, listing land impact on house prices provides anew method.Fourth, the author believes that the local government’s fiscal gap and promotionincentives to local government caused the local government dependent on the landtransfer income.it is the driving force behind local government.land financialdependence is the root cause for land and housing prices rising.it is because of thegood development of China’s real estate market, the developer of the pursuit of profit,the result of the role of local government behavior. The most fundamental reasonwhy China’s land prices and housing prices continue to rise is the selecteddevelopers and local governments in achieving their own objectives.This article may have the following innovation:(1) This paper attempts to price discovery theory in financial markets isintroduced to the study on the impact of land prices and housing prices, the landtrading by auction, etc., as a signal, delivered information to the Real Estate Market.Found a new perspective to explain the land price impact on house prices.(2) The land saled on bidding, auction, listing as an institutional factor, Studyits impact on land prices and housing prices. Made a useful exploration on examinethe underlying causes of high real estate prices from the Institutional factors.Inparticular,In previous reaserch on the land transfer system, both on the role of real estate pricesin the relevant auction in the use of qualitative analysis, quantitative analysis is less.In this paper, the "land-signal model”,“the real estate market of the threedepartments under the Government’s multiple objectives equilibriummodel”.Quantitative study of300micro real estate data, study the effect on housingprices.(3) Using policy intervention model in research the “restriction on the purchaseof housing,” attempting to quantitative analysis on the purchase of the policy impact on housing prices, and applied to the future housing price movements projections.The constraints on Data, time and the research capacity, there are still manydeficiencies and leakages, mainly as follows:(1) I try to study the impact on house prices using the price signal thoery, butnot deep enough and the system. For example, I found in the study, the rise in landprices impact on house prices and land prices fell with asymmetric impact on houseprices, but due to the data and time constraints, the negative signal to the land pricedata can not be collected. Future research will be more in-depth theory of pricediscovery, the asymmetry and the impact of regional impact for further research.(2) The subject of this study is the role of the land transfer system, and therelationship between land prices and housing prices. It will inevitably be related tothe financial property of the real estate market. Constraints because of the length andmethods of analysis on this issue, but there is no analysis in depth, I will continue thestudy in future.