| The expansion of city land space has become one of the main characteristics of land use in China, its expanding speed and range is not only related to the level and quality of the development of urbanization, but also have an important influence on the regional supply of land market and real estate market. From2001to2010, the built-up area increased from24026.63km2to178691.70km’, which expanded by nearly7.5times during the10years. The resident population urbanization rate rose from37.66%in2001to49.95%in2010, which went up32.63%. It is clear that the expansion of land in China is far greater than the population urbanization rate, which reflects the tendency of low density and decentralization of population urbanization in China. This sign is caused by the local governments’"achievements" of the development and the "big and complete" city planning and the most directly perceived reflection is the increasing number of yearly land supply. Therefore,"The Outline of the Twelfth Five-Year Plan for the National Economic and Social Development of the People’s Republic of China" clearly pointed out that we should rationally determine the boundary city development, to develop the land supply plan of scientific research, land supply and long-term planning, to prevent excessive outspread of megalopolis. With the rapid expansion of the city, China’s real estate prices continue rising and uncertain, and become the focus of attention of the society, especially after "tender auction listing transferring state-owned land use rights provision" promulgated in2002, the debate about factors affecting the price of real estate and market regulation policy become more intense. Among them, the judgment that the supply of land has an important impact on the real estate market prices is recognized by the public. From the domestic scholar’s research results, due to the larger number of researches on land supply’s impact on housing prices or the relationship between the two sides, the research contents are mainly from the land supply, not considering enough and systematically of the supply policy, supply structure, style and location, and the research methods are mainly qualitative analysis, few quantitative research method, and mainly concentrated in the research field of mutual relationship between housing price and land price, and because of the inconsistency of data, research area and time, the research conclusion is still inconsistent. In addition, the land supply and housing prices are mainly based on the macro data. Although to some extent it reflects the basic aspect, the real estate market has strict regional characteristics, and research data in macro level conceals location factors of the real estate market, resulting in a lack of decision-making of government and the enterprise. In view of this, this study bases on the background of the rapid expansion of city and on the research foundation of the land supply and real estate price. Taking takes the urban area of Chongqing city as an example, it analyzes relationship among city expansion, land supply, supply structure, the supply of location, supply price or level and then systematically analyzes influence mechanism and price characteristics on real estate prices from the land supply policy, supply number, supply structure and supply methods. In order to reflect the housing space difference of the influence of land supply, this paper starts from the middle view measure and spatial strategy regionalization in Chongqing "one circle and two wings" as the research object, systematically compare heterogeneity of affects on housing prices from number of land supply, supply structure and the supply methods in "one circle and two wings" area to control real estate market supply of land use policy, providing reference for the government, enterprises (developers) to provide and consumers. In the aspect of theory research, three aspects of influence mechanism of synergy mechanism, the supply of land from the city expansion and land supply mechanism and the supply of land prices on the prices of analyzing the mechanism of effect of land supply mechanism and the effect on prices under the background of city expansion. Among them, the first two parts of the study mainly in the normative analysis, by the analysis of channel function and operation mechanism framework; in effect mechanism on the prices of land supply, the supply and demand model, the four quadrant model, tax incidence theory, marginal utility theory and the market division theory and other economics methods and theory, the expected conclusion is derived:1) in the context of high prices, the government to increase land supply," effective " theory can alleviate the contradiction between supply and demand of market.2) Changes and land supply elasticity, cycle length, prices of regional land resource supply potential can be inseparable, rising long-term land supply shortage will lead to price.3) In real estate demand situation, to increase the volume of rising house prices will raise, the high prices will drive the corresponding price rise, causing investment in land market is expected to rise, eventually lead to further improve the land supply, the volume rate will produce a series of the opposite effect.4) the demand curve corresponding to the supply of land in the inelastic region, land prices in the premium most were transferred to developers, it will raise prices to maintain profit expectations, leading to price increases; the demand curve corresponding to the supply of land in the elastic region, land prices in the most were transferred to the consumer, but the expected profit security will guide developers to reduce prices." Dr. shoot up " the supply of land is not the cause of rising prices, the local government or developers will push up prices in the high price period, sell or reserve act.5) Change the way of land supply will increase land prices, the formation of a future prices to rise is expected in the market, the rise is expected to make existing premium, the premium increases will lead to signal future price increases, resulting in a new round of price increases, eventually forming a complex, bidirectional, long-acting mechanism of action.6)" two shoot up" the impact of real estate and land supply market:one is the land prices caused prices to rise and the return to rational prices——the average price level of social——two is to reduce the impact on the land price.7) Increase the affordable housing supply will not be the supply of land and real estate market clear division, its impact on the commercial housing price has three effects:inhibition effect, uplift effect and the uncertainty effect. Clear the land supply and housing demand in the market, strict division of the two types of market was performed to quantify the indexes, can achieve the purpose of "increase the low-income housing, stabilize the high prices"In the empirical analysis, the basic logic of this article is:city expansion and land supply relationship, land supply policy impact on housing prices and volatility, land supply, structure, mode and location on the price and its fluctuation, the supply of land prices and housing prices causality. Specifically,1) the relationship between city expansion and land supply, mainly from the city expansion trend and characteristics of city expansion, the supply of land for the historical influence, Chongqing city " second time" city expansion of supply and city expansion trend of land grade and standard land price system in four aspects elaborates influence the city of Chongqing city the rapid expansion and land supply relationship.2) analysis of the impact of land supply policy on house price and its volatility, on the foundation of combing the regulation and control of land supply policy on house prices, by building the analysis model and VAR model1quarter to the4quarter of2011the level of house prices in1998from the wavelet, the evolution trend of prices, price fluctuation cycle and the delay of external force three aspects elaborated systematically the impact of land supply policy on housing prices.3) The number of land supply, structure, mode and location of the impact on prices of. In this paper, taking the year2003-2010Chongqing nine districts of various types of construction land supply and real estate market prices for basic data, through the construction of the real estate market and the stock and flow model, the marginal utility model, dummy variable model analysis of the parties the supply of land in Chongqing city house prices impact characteristics, in addition, based on the multiple linear regression model, analysis of the influences of different regional land supply for housing space.4) Causality analysis of the supply of land prices and housing prices. The theoretical analysis of relationship from the perspective of demand and supply and market comprehensive perspective on housing price and land price, then the application of the first quarter of2001to the fourth quarter of2010in the urban area of Chongqing city land price index and housing sales price index, the causal relationship with Granger causality test model analysis of housing price and land price.Through the above analysis, this paper draws the following conclusions:1) the process of rapid expansion of city, there were differences due to expansion way, speed and trend, land supply, structure, location and level also exists spatial difference, this provides the regional environment as the supply of land to the real estate market.2) the supply of land supply in the short run without elasticity and long-term supply shortage is an important cause of the high prices, but the current domestic macroeconomic situation, land and real estate market demand remains relatively strong, trying to increase the supply of land to reduce the prices are not the reality, so it is necessary to control prices change from supply and market structure readjustment angle.3) the supply of land policy on the whole have a significant impact on prices, and then change the trend, the price fluctuations cycle and time delay.4) the supply of land on the impact of house prices is relatively complex, the quantity, the structure of land supply, the way will produce different effects on prices and volatility.5) The supply of land from the total amount, structure and methods and other aspects affect the price, and the influence mechanism and characteristics because of the level of economic development, market development and perfection in different regions and different.6) the volume rate is positive "barometer" of the price changes, and the two in the lower level of the strong correlation.7) The relationship between house price and land price dynamic features.Through the theoretical exploration and empirical study, the innovation of this paper are as follows:1) based on the background of the rapid expansion of the city, this paper has systematically studied the effect on prices and their fluctuation from land supply, which is a meaningful attempt to this field.2) This paper has analyzed the process, characteristics and trends of city expansion then concluded the impact on housing prices from scale, layout, structure of land supply and level and price of land in the process of land expansion. This is the macro control of supply characteristics of land area in the process of the city expansion, which provides a good base for the clearer study on the impact on housing prices from land supply enriches the above research and also provides a direction for deeper research.3) This paper systematically does a research methods of the system explained the relationship between city expansion and land supply, land supply quantity, structure, style, location of land price and its volatility and the relationship between housing price and land price. Use evolution (landscape) model of land supply in speed, strength and trend of land space to analyze the relationship between city expansion and land supply; use the Stock-Flow model to analyze the effects of land supply for housing and its volatility; spatial difference analysis based on panel data of district land supply for housing and its fluctuation.4) The real estate market has strong regional characteristics. As the empirical research to the urban area of Chongqing City, the paper does researches on the impact on prices from land supply in rapid expansion of city, reveals the influence of city expansion of land supply on one hand and reveals the impact on housing prices from the number, structure, volume, location, mode, price of land supply, on the other hand, it has a clear understanding of the real estate market area, and provides the control measures of land supply for its healthy and orderly operation and house prices.Due to the time limit for human resources and TM images, this paper only has the manual interpretation for the lands for construction in the main urban areas in1995,2000and2008,.and the conclusion that construction land divide into residential land, public services and industrial storage sites relies mainly on experience and manual reading, therefore, there possibly are some analytic data deviations. In addition, based mainly on the empirical analysis, this paper focuses on the practical significance, so the analysis of the theory and the experience is still weak. It would better deepen the study in abundant research data, reasonable econometric model and theory research on the impact on housing prices from land supply. |
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