Study On China’s Urbanization Bubble Measure And Regional Differences

A sound urbanization development will provide a strong impetus for sustainable development of economic and social in China. As China’s urbanization strategy has been implementing since the beginning of the21st century, the population urbanization level has seen a rapid increase, and in consequence profound changes has taken place in respective of population, economy, society, production, life style, resources, environment and government management. However, during this process a series of problems was inevitably exposed, such as too rapid increase in urban population, sprawls of urban constructions and the worsening ecological and environmental conditions. Due to these problems, this dissertation holds that external environments should not be the only focus of the urbanization process. In-depth analysis of urbanization problems are of even more importance. Based on the variations in dimensions of provinces and urban scales, this dissertation systematically does a theoretical research into the problem of urbanization bubble and gives practical explanations.Firstly, based on the existent theoretical studies on urbanization bubble, this dissertation reviews concepts of cities and towns, urbanization, and clearly defines urbanization bubble, for whose connotation this dissertation provides explanations from perspectives of the urbanization and urban-rural integration. Further, as there has not yet been an authoritative and acknowledged index system to measure bubble, and the design of the urbanization bubble measure index system is still in its infancy, this dissertation explores and works out an integrated urbanization bubble measure index system, whose statistical indicators includes urbanization bubbles of population, economy, space, basic public service and environment, which are based on the quality of cities and towns development, and urbanization bubble based on regional development.Secondly, on the dimension of provinces, this dissertation measures urbanization bubble in30provinces, cities and autonomous regions in China from the year of1999to2011, with the integrated urbanization bubble measure index system. The results show that urbanization bubbles of space, environment and regional development are fairly evident, those of population and economy are moderate, while basic public service urbanization bubble are the most inconspicuous. According to principle component analysis, it is likely that urbanization bubble exists in two thirds of provinces, cities and autonomous regions in China, the degrees of which vary from the strongest in the eastern region, followed by central China, to western region where there has not yet been an overall urbanization bubble. The outcome of cluster analysis supports the conclusion above. Then the dissertation tests the spatial autocorrelation among the30provinces, cities and autonomous regions with the spatial econometric analysis method. The global autocorrelation test shows that the spatial distribution of urbanization bubble is not statistically correlated. The local autocorrelation test reveals that during the evolution of the spatial distribution of urbanization bubble from the year of2000to2011, clear spatial differentiation never appeared; neither did the significant differentiation of regional agglomerations of homogeneity and heterogeneity. Regions of moderate or inconspicuous urbanization bubble has always taken the most part of China.Thirdly, on the dimension of urban scales, this dissertation measures urbanization bubble in27cities of big, middle and small scales in China from the year of2000to2011, with the integrated urbanization bubble measure index system. The results show that urbanization bubbles of economy, space, environment and regional development in cities of different scales are fairly evident. However, divergences of degrees of these bubbles among cites of different scales are obvious. Population urbanization bubble is moderate, and there also exists divergences in degrees among cites of different scales. Basic public service urbanization bubble is the most inconspicuous, so are the variations in degrees among cites of different scales. Principle component analysis testifies that urbanization bubble exists in two thirds of cities, the degrees of which vary due to different scales. The degrees of load of factors of cities with similar urbanization bubble values are obviously different. Variance analysis indicates that urbanization bubble degrees among cities of different scales are not statistically different on the significance level of5%.Fourthly, the urbanization development problem is an important issue of regional governance. Using the perspective of regional governance and starting by the urbanization of the "North Paradox", this dissertation use theories of institutional economics to analyze formation mechanisms of urbanization bubble in China. Due to the weak governance foundation of regional governance,"good governance" is failed to achieve in regional governance in the development of urbanization progress. Failing to achieve "good governance" is the important reasons of causing urbanization bubble. These studies may play a valuable role to systematic research on urbanization bubble.Fifthly, the consequence of time series forecasting method research manifests that urbanization bubble shows an inter-provincial upward trend. The growth trend of urbanization bubble continues in the eastern region with very little sign of decrease; central China shows a decreasing trend stronger than growth trend; and the growth trend in the western region is the weakest. Cities of different scales also show increasing trend of urbanization bubble, which differentiate each other by the level of scale:the trend in big cities are the strongest, followed by small cities, and at last middle cities.Finally, guiding by the correlation theory of the urbanization bubble, and based on the development status, formation mechanisms and development trends of the urbanization bubble in China, the systematic policy recommendations are proposed to resolve the urbanization bubble. The policy recommendations can provide advice, intelligence support and reference for government sector.