| Developing modern agriculture is the only way to improve industrial structure, promote prosperity of the countryside and make famers rich. However, due to various historical reasons, the process of transition from traditional agriculture to modern agriculture is relatively slow in China, especially in the vast central and western regions, where the situation of agricultural transition is very grim. China’s backward development mode in agriculture has become one bottleneck of its sustainable, healthy economic development. Major obstacle in the process of transition from traditional agriculture to modern agriculture is lacking sufficient capital support, especially lacking efficient financial support.Agro-oriented special funds and agriculture-supporting loans are major parts of funds investing in agriculture, and there is no essential difference between them for agriculture production, so in this thesis these two funds are added and the sum serves as an independent variable (namely external invest funds for agriculture), to empirically study the influence of the external invest funds on agricultural development. Then the thesis evaluates current situation of agricultural development supported by external invest funds based on a perspective of optimal scale. The conclusion is that the influence of external invest funds on agricultural economic growth presents a significant positive correlation. But now in our country external invest funds for agriculture are obviously insufficient, and we should increase investment in agriculture. The optimal scale of external invest funds for agriculture should be1.354times as large as the actual scale of external invest funds in2009. After above empirical study, the thesis separately analyzed the characteristics of supply and demand of agriculture-supporting loan, and then calculated the gap between supply and demand based on financial interrelations ratio.Then theories including game theory methods were used to analyze the optimal total quantity of agriculture-supporting loan in equilibrium, the rate of advanced capital withdrawal, defaults rate of loan in equilibrium. The conclusions are:(1) the smaller the risk aversion coefficient is, the lower the market interest rate is, the higher the expectant input-output ratio is, the lower the defaults rate of loan is, the less the marginal damage for advanced capital withdrawal is, then the total quantity of agriculture-supporting loan in equilibrium will be more;(2) the lower the expectant input-output ratio is, the higher the defaults rate of loan is, the smaller the ratio of own fund to borrowed fund is, the less the marginal damage for advanced capital withdrawal is, then the possibility of advanced capital withdrawal will be greater;(3) the better the natural state of an investment project is, the lower the interest rate of agriculture-supporting loan is, the less the marginal damage for advanced capital withdrawal is, then defaults rate of loan in equilibrium will be lower.Finally by summarization of contrastive analysis, the thesis concluded the experience and lessons we should learn from other countries on capital support in agriculture development and puts forward policy suggestions of promoting modernized agriculture development by supplying more capital support:(1) establishing and completing diversified rural financial system to foster competition mechanism;(2) supplying support in many ways to improve confidence in agriculture-supporting loan;(3) actively directing agriculture operation industrialization to improve the systematization degree of agriculture.The main theoretical innovation of this paper is:The sum of agriculture-related special fund and agriculture-supporting loan were took as the agriculture external invest funds. Empirical study was made on the influence of external invest funds on agricultural economic development and farmer’s average per capita net income. The thesis theoretically analyzed the optimal scale of external invest funds based on the perspective of agriculture development. The thesis then analyzed the game behavior in agriculture-supporting loan and reaches the conclusion about the total optimal quantity of agriculture-supporting loan in equilibrium, the rate of advanced capital withdrawal of the agriculture-supporting loan, the defaults rate of agricultural producer under loan in equilibrium, the respectively important investing fields of agriculture-supporting loan and agro-oriented special funds, and other important issues.Its theoretical and practical significance is:The research achievement of the thesis can serve as reference in improving financial supporting system of agriculture, and solving the problems of rural financial repression and agricultural financial restraint. Then it is also conducive to providing theoretical guidance for rural finance reform, to deepening rural finance reform and to reforming agriculture-supporting system of finance. It is necessary to conform to the nature of financial loan and the operation characteristics of all kinds of financial loans supporting agricultural and rural development, and to learn from successful experience of advanced countries. |
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