| Water resource is one of the basic natural resources for human life and social development.Meanwhile,it is also irreplaceable strategic economic resource.With the rapid economic development and the accelerating urbanization process of in recent years,more and more environmental and ecological problems have arisen,especially the resources water shortage and water quality-induced water shortage.The imbalance between water supply and water demand became increasingly sharp,which is now the bottleneck restricting social developments.Among all the solutions,optimal allocation of limited water resources is an important way to alleviate this problem.Since 1950 s many researches have been done regards to this issue,however only a few results were applied.It is mainly because of the uncertainty and complexity of various factors in water resources system which lead to unpractical results.In this study the complex relations among resources,environment and economy were fully considered,after which the result was applied in practical by taking Yuyang District in Yulin city as an example.Comparison between different results suggests that this method is better in terms of practical application.Finally the harmony of water resource system was evaluated based on the results.The main conclusions are:1.The basic water resources situation of Yuyang District was analyzed and determined.The major problems in the sustainable water resources development were pointed out.The advice of how to solve these problems was also suggested.2.The year 2013 was taken as the current level year.The years 2020 and 2030 were used as different planning years.Quota method,grey forecasting model,grey forecasting model group,exponential function model,linear function model and two degree polynomial model were adopted to predict the future water demands in Yuyang District.The performance of these methods was evaluated,the accuracy order of short term prediction from high to low is: grey forecasting model group,two degree polynomial model,grey forecasting model,exponential function model and line ar function model.The accuracy order of long term prediction is: grey forecasting model,exponential function model,linear function model,two degree polynomial model and grey forecasting model group.Temporal sensitivity order from high to low is: grey forecasting model group,two degree polynomial model,linear function model,exponential function model and grey forecasting model.In practice,grey forecasting model group is more valuable in short-term prediction,as for long term prediction,gray prediction model is relatively stable.3.Based on the water demand prediction results of Yuyang District,and the water balance situation and water resources bearing capacity were performed.The results showed that population size and economic development will both surpass water supply in years 2020 and 2030 according to Yuyang Economic Development Plan.Thus,o p t i m a l a l l o c a t i o n o f w a t e r r e s o u r c e i n Y u ya n g D i s t r i c t i s n e c e s s a r y.4.Take 75% planning years in 2020 and 2030 in Yuyang District as an example,based on the uncertainty and complexity of water resource analysis system,IFMOP was used to optimize the allocation of water resource in Yuyang District.The comprehensive benefits of economy,society and environment was set as the target.Some uncertain factors in water resource system were indicated by interval parameters.Program was developed by using interactive operation and LINGO software in the range of intervals.The variables in the allocation model were solved to obtain the water resources allocation plan.According to the allocation plan five aspects were analyzed which were water allocation results,water supply structure of industry,water supply structure of water source,water supply situation and water shortage in the industry.Through optimal allocation,the bearing capacity of water resource in Yuyang District was enhanced.Therefore,the model has strong practical application.5.Taking the uncertainty of evaluation process into consideration,this paper introduced interval number to analytic hierarchy process and developed interval analytic hierarchy process model for the comprehensive water resources allocation system in the social,economic,ecological and management.It then evaluated water allocation system in Yuyang District by analytic hierarchy process and interval analytic hierarchy process.The output results are analyzed focusing on its practicality and harmony.Interval analytic hierarchy process reflected uncertainty and ambiguity of evaluation in the whole process,so the evaluation results are more flexible and reasonable;compared to interval analytic hierarchy process(taking interval mid value),the results of analytic hierarchy process has slightly error,but both of them could reflect the improvement of harmony after optimal allocation of water,which further validates the rationality of allocation plan and the adaptability of IMOP model. |
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