Identifying,Assessing And Coping With Non-traditional Security Threat

Nowadays,more and more non-traditional security(NTS)threats come out as great challenges of national security.In Such a global age,in some way,a country can only gain its own security by successfully dealing with kinds of NTS threats.To achieve this goal,making an effective threat assessment after identifying actual threats is quite necessary.On the base of basic NTS theories,this paper tries to construct theoretical frameworks for both NTS threat identifying and assessing.Such frameworks may help decision making in coping with those threats.The introduction part briefly introduces the background,purpose,content and significance of this research,and also emphasizes key points,difficulties and innovations of this paper.The second part is the research overview of this paper.It mainly shows that the study of NTS origins from the study of international security,and both of them share the same discourse system.The study of NTS threats must be based on the analysis of the existing theories of international security.Therefore,on the one hand,this part summarized theatrical discussions about "security" and"non-traditional security" both at home and abroad.On the other hand,it combs existing researches of NTS threat identifying and assessing.By doing this,this part can point out the contribution and shortage of existing researches.The third part is going to construct the identifying framework of NTS threat.Many public issues have been discussed as NTS threats.This may cause the generalization of NTS study.What’s more,the ambiguity of security concept,security boundary and threat reality also put the identifying of NTS threat in dispute.Thus,it is necessary to establish identifying criteria according to the traits of non-military,border/regional crossing and universal threat based on core assumptions of security analysis.In the fourth part,the assessing framework of NTS threat is put forward.Although the NTS threat assessment is a special kind of threat assessment,it still origins from ordinary threat assessment,and differs from risk assessment.Threat assessment is more operational.Information such as intent,strength provided by threat assessment will reflect the situation of threat itself,which can better help and guide the threat prevention and response.By comparing the method of trait assessing and factor assessing,this paper then point out the former one is more suitable for NTS threat assessment.Therefore,this part of paper offers a NTS assessment framework based on the ability traits and cognitive traits.The fifth part applies the identifying and assessing theory given by former two parts.This part firstly identifies six major China’s current exogenous NTS threats:international financial crisis,world energy crisis,global climate change,hacker attacks,global epidemic disease and transnational organized crime.After assessing all these six threats,it shows that except the international financial crisis and global climate change,the other "exogenous" threats are generally high capacity and low cognition threats.The world energy crisis and the hacker attack get strong transformation ability.The global climate change and the international financial crisis score highly in cognitive traits,which show the urgency to China in dealing with these threats in future.The sixth part provides the coping strategy for exogenous NTS threats.The coping of exogenous threats mainly replies on diplomatic response.For nowadays China,the diplomatic transformation has become the inevitable while dealing with exogenous threats.It is important to turn the security management concept from the "negative security" to "active security" first,in order to highlight the unity of the security and the importance of security capabilities construction in NTS diplomacy.On this basis,China’s NTS diplomacy can transit from the domain diplomacy to the field diplomacy and from the country-aim diplomacy to the human-aim diplomacy.This paper is a theoretical research.Its theoretical innovations mostly base on the refining of existing NTS theories.The proposing of identifying and assessing framework intends to overcome some shortcomings in existing researches about threats,threat identifying and threat assessment.On the other hand,it is also a kind of attempt to promote the refinement and standardization of NTS theory.At the same time,AHP has been applied in this study,which can be seen as a kind of exploration of applying relative qualitative description in NTS research.It not only helps in building a more distinctive and characteristic core theory for this paper,but also enriches the practice of NTS research in method application.It may provide good reference for scientific research of NTS study in future.