Reducing Junior High School Dropout In Rural China-Based On An Empirical Study

China's future economic development depends on current level of human capital reserves. Large discrepancies between rural and urban human capital, especially within the field of education, threaten the stability of China's future economic development. Comparative international research findings suggest that equitable development and population quality are important factors for a country transitioning from middle income to high-income status.Improving workforce education levels is among one of the best investments a middle-income country can make:by ensuring that the vast majority of the labor force receives a high school education, countries such as China can partially avoid the "middle income trap". However, existing studies show that the dropout rate among impoverished rural junior high school students in China is above 25%. High drop out rates in junior high school increase education costs, waste educational resources, damage cost effectiveness overall, and cut off the channel of improving human capital by education. More importantly, a high dropout rate reduces the stock of the country's human capital, leading to increased unemployment. In the long run, rising unemployment and a growing opportunity gap will hinder economic development and social stability. For these reasons, reducing the junior high school dropout rate is very important for China's future economic development.The overall goal of this study is to examine a large-sample randomized controlled trial for a policy simulation. This study is to better understand junior high school education and overall human capital in impoverished rural areas; to analyze the factors related to junior high school dropout rates in these areas; to understand the general drop out process of rural junior high school students; to explore methods effective in reducing junior high school dropout rates and to provide empirically based policy recommendations aimed at increasing human capital stock in China's future economic development.To achieve these goals, we collected 9250 students'panel data from 75 rural junior high schools in poor, rural northwestern areas. This information included students' personal and family characteristics, standardized math test scores, as well as a anxiety tendency test, used as an overall measure of mental health. At the school level, we also conducted interviews with corresponding 75 rural junior high school principals. Then, we randomly selected a portion of dropout students with whom to conduct semi-structured interviews. Of these 75 schools, we randomly assigned 35 as the intervention group and trained local teachers at these schools to carry out weekly interventions. Interventions consisted of a psychological skills course in which students participated in exercises teaching them to cope with stress-linking activities, how to navigate teacher-student relationships, how to handle peer relationships, We employed a mix-methods approach, with quantitative analysis and qualitative interviews, to analyze the relationship between human capital stock and junior high school dropout problem in poor rural areas.The results showed that the dropout rates from our sample junior high schools in poor, rural northwest areas are still high:the average dropout rate of our sample student group in the first two years more than 13% and rates among counties differ from 7.2% to 27.1%. More than 74% of rural students in our sample schools are at risk of mental health problems, representing a level twelve-times higher than their urban peers. In addition to behavioral and economic factors related to family circumstance, older male students and students with low academic performance are statistically more likely to drop out of school. Moreover, this study found that students' learning anxiety and other mental health factors are also significantly related to dropout behavior. Key factors directly affect the a student's decision to drop out of school, namely:academic achievement, teacher-student relationship, peer relationship, and parental attitudes toward the student. A student's academic structure and social structure together determine the willingness of said student to remain in school. Based on Tinto's drop out theoretical model, we found that the general process of rural junior high school dropping out can be roughly divided into three stages:(1) the idea generation phase, (2) the dropout intervention phase, and (3) the implementing dropout decision phase.The result from our randomized controlled trial showed that, compared to the control group, the intervention group's average dropout rate and learning anxiety level has decreased significantly in the first follow-up evaluation, but these effects diminished in the second follow-up evaluation survey. However, this study found that the intervention reduces dropout among students at high-risk of dropping out (older students and students with friends who have already dropped out) in both midline and endline situations. Compared to some other interventions to reduce the dropout rate (for example, conditional cash transfers) this program has a higher cost efficiency. Interventions from the supply side such as this one not only reduces the dropout rate, but also improves the quality of education in schools, therefore elevating overall level of human capital.This study recommends that the problem of high junior high school dropout rates needs to be solved in the process of human capital building in poor rural areas. In order to reduce the dropout rate and solve the dropout problem, we must first analyze which factors related to junior high school dropout behavior are most significant. Health and education policy-makers need to prioritize lower rural junior high school dropout rates and improving rural students' mental health in order to enhance the level of human capital in rural areas. Eventually, doing so will help narrow the gap between urban and rural areas and mitigates some challenges of China's future economy.The innovation in this research in part derives from its use of data directly collected from a large, randomly selected sample. By using first hand data in this way the current study overcomes the need to rely solely on national level statistics. This is also the first time randomized methodology has been used to evaluate the impact of a psychological skills course intervention on poor rural areas of the northwest. The study illuminates the causal relationship between a psychological skills course intervention and the reduction of junior high drop out, and by extension sheds light on the larger matter of human capital development in rural areas. By linking theory and applied economic analysis, the current study also explores the accumulation of human capital in rural areas, in particular the degree to which a life counseling intervention can lower drop outs and expand the pool of rural human capital. In this way the study serves as an important foundation upon which to base future policies to address dropouts and boost human capital development in rural areas.