Study On The Cooperation Network And Grow- Th Prediction Of Small And Micro Enterprises

Small and micro enterprises (SMEs) play an important role in national economy. SMEs create more job opportunity, maintain the stable of society, promote adjustment of industrial structure and guarantee the growth of economy, except those functions, it can achieve creative technology transformation and training entrepreneur. From the situation of Chinese SMEs development, the average life span is short, especially for micro enterprises is only 2.9 years. How to promote the age limit and growth of SMEs becomes a main concern. The network of cooperation creat abundant resource, enterprises may integrate external resources to solve the problem of shortage of SMEs. Therefore, enterprise resource has expands to ablity of collaboration with external. Earlier firm growth studies focus on endogenous facors, specificlally characters of entrepreneur and entrepreneurial team. However, along with the refined of market division, single enterprise could not master all the technology knowledge and cope with risks alone. Accordingly, SMEs establish cooperative partnership with suppliers, customesr, intermediaries,financial and educational institutions, government even competitors. With the interaction with the environment, SMEs constantly forming relationship network. Business enterprise may grow up throuth cooperation network expansion and structure optimizaition, which guarantee the smooth flow of information and diffusion of innovative thechnology.This research conducted investigation of knowledge map of SMEs,structure of cooperation network, relationship between cooperation netwok and growth of SMEs, growth predicton of SMEs in detail. Based on clarify the development and research fronts of SMEs and gather empirical data, grasp the characteristics of network and type of relations,provide meaningful reference for the growth of small and micro enterprises. The main research contents and conclusions including the following aspects:Firstly, this study maps and analyzes the knowledge of small and mirco enterprises research, detects the research front to identify vulnerable spots. Theoretical studies are driven by practical problems.Conversely, business practice also needs theoretical guidance. The results of investigatons can provide advice in competition, survival and development.Based on information visulaizaton and knowledge map, this research data downloaded from Chinese social science citation index, "small and mirco enterprises" as retrieval item, then, stanardzing data. The second step is analyzing trend of number of research findings and authors. The result shown that, the phenomenon of a great quantity of findings and authors has not occurred. In striking contrast to the government policy of encourage the growth of SMEs and stress the importance of mass entreprenurship. This result suggests the research contents and objects of SMEs are limited, which become a bottleneck to restrict investigations,need to combs existing related researches and find new hotspots. Lastly,by analyse keyword co-currence network, investigations of SMEs are aboutfinancing, tax policy and Internet finace, also include some research branches.The result of keyword cluster analysis which using pathfinder algorithm is that, crative network and social nework, financial institution,dynamic game. Network analysis is the major topic.Secondly, this research drawing the structure of cooperation network.Empiracal data is grain from MBA students from Beijing University of Posts and Telecommunications. Collaborators are gathered by name generator/interpreter. Using Kamada-Kawai algorithm generate and visulize network structure. Calculate network desity, cohesion index,average distance between two nodes and centrality, results indicate SMEs have a lower level of cooperation; the structure of network is sparse;cohesion is poor which will hinder the resource flow and growth of SMEs.The second step is illustrate network core to detect those node are prestigious and occupy advantage positions. The study found that core ablity of node are not balanced, there does not exits obvious core node in cooperation network. The third step is a central part of whole network analysis that is sub-groups or cliques. The result shown that there exits 6 subgroups in cooperation network, but hardly have cooperative relashipship, which means resource and information flow is not smooth and SMEs are weak in source control. Meanwhile, subgroup of high-tech firms is the biggest and has higher heterogeneity, parter of traditional manufacturing firms has higher homogeneity.Thirdly, analysis the relationship between nework and growth of SMEs from three dimensions: network structure, social ties, subject’s activity. Establish the index system of SMEs growth includes: financial development, innovation performance and growth potential. The empirical results show that except heterogeneity, desity, strength of ties,relationship desire, and centrality have significantly positive influence on financial development. About innovation performance, all other hypothises are supported. These findings offered some suggestions that mode of SMEs need to adjust with development stage and enterprise status. During the earlier period, SMEs could increase network centrality and proactively seek out and establish cooperation, develop extroverted nework management mode. With the growth of SMEs, innovation is the driving force for long-term development, enterprises should chose heterogeneity partners and occupy betweeness position of network to gain the advantage from structure hole, enhance survival rate.Fourthly, Based on the neural network method, predict the growth of SMEs. Statistics result indicate that the score of SMEs in China is generally lower (average score is 39.53). Meanwhile the situation of SMEs is different (standard deviation is 8.21), enterprises should be vigorously developed. Compare with multivariable linear regression model, BP neural network is an effective method to predit the growth of SMEs, which could help SMEs make strategic objective and construct core competence, reinforece the sustainable growth ablity from internal and external environment.