Study On Evaluation And Early Warning Of Comprehensive Carrying Capacity Of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Urban Agglomeration

With the rapid development of global industrialization and urbanization,whether the infinite development of city and city group can fit with the limited environment and resources bearing has been a new topic for the future development of the world,and so as the possibility of positive interaction between human and earth.In China's six largest city group,due to the unique location and political characteristics,the development of Beijing,Tianjin city group has been the concern.With the rapid economic growth,industrialization and urbanization,environmental system in Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei region became very weak,the overall environmental quality declined,and the overload operation condition of Jing-Jin-Ji city group raised the concern to think about city comprehensive carrying capacity.This paper argues that the city group comprehensive bearing capacity is the threshold of city population scale and intensity which can realize the harmonious development of city group sustainable development and goal,and can continue to carry various activities under certain time,space and social,economic,ecological and technological conditions,city resources;This paper consider that the comprehensive carrying capacity of city group system is composed by city group system,original driven bearing system and derivative bearing capacity.Then based on the dissipation structure theory,coordination theory and catastrophe theory,this paper set the city group comprehensive carrying capacity system coupling model Y=f(y_?,y_?,y_?,y_?);This paper formed the city group comprehensive evaluation index system and evaluation model of bearing capacity which include six index of population carrying capacity,resource carrying capacity,environmental carrying capacity and carrying capacity of economic resources,transport capacity and public service capacity.Then test on the data from city group comprehensive bearing capacity and bearing capacity system of Beijing Tianjin and Hebei region,the Yangtze River Delta,Pearl River Delta city group in2004-2013,and simulated the history of city group comprehensive carrying capacity evolution,and find the short board and shackles city group comprehensive carrying capacity system.Then guided with the relatively balanced city development concept,this paper learned from the experience of Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta city group,to make sure the improvement direction and focus of Beijing and Tianjin city group comprehensive carrying capacity system.And this paper constructs the subsystem of city group carrying capacity evaluation model of complex integration model,and based on this,this paper formed the early warning model of Beijing and Tianjin city group comprehensive capacity,and after caculation,this paper concluded that the Beijing comprehensive carrying capacity is serious overloading,and Tianjin is close to overload and serious overloading,while the Hebei comprehensive carrying capacity is low;The enhancing the comprehensive carrying capacity of Beijing Tianjin and Hebei city group is not simple economic issues,these issues need coordination force of economic policy,social policy,industrial policy,population policy,public policy and the"visible hand"and"invisible hand"synergy force,and need to be based on the Beijing Tianjin Hebei while considering from the world,to use collaborative force on the wider time and space dimensions;This paper proposed the improving the guiding ideology and basic strategy of Beijing and Tianjin city group of comprehensive carrying capacity.Taking the collaborative development of Beijing Tianjin Hebei as the premise,the stakeholders should insist on complementary advantages,dislocation development,coordination force,sharing and win-win,in order to ease Beijing non capital function as the starting point,in order to improve the bearing capacity of resources and environment as the basis,in order to optimize the regional division of labor and industrial layout is the key to the overall planning,then taking the economy,population,traffic and other factors as the main line and expand the capacity of the ecological environment,so as to promote the construction of the Beijing Tianjin Hebei public service sharing,and to achieve continuous improvement in Beijing and Tianjin city group comprehensive carrying capacity,finally to create a more flexible space for accelerating the construction of a world-class city group.This paper mainly has four innovations: first,the construction of the comprehensive carrying capacity evaluation framework of Beijing Tianjin Hebei Urban agglomeration.In order to ensure the scientific evaluation framework,based on the Beijing Tianjin Hebei region,the Yangtze River Delta,Pearl River Delta city group 2004-2013 years of data,the empirical evaluation used the evaluation framework to track temporal changes in Beijing Tianjin Hebei region,the Yangtze River Delta,Pearl River Delta city group comprehensive carrying capacity,and to simulate the development trend in the future,and further verified the scientific and operational evaluation framework.Secondly,the early warning model and early warning interval of the Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei city group comprehensive carrying ability.Based on this,this paper constructed the comprehensive carrying capacity of city group and city group model to measure the comprehensive carrying capacity of early warning model of Beijing Tianjin Hebei city comprehensive carrying capacity in the standard interval,interval and serious overload,and then identified factors which played a decisive role on early warning interval fluctuations.Thirdly,this paper innovatively research the public service capacity as an important subsystem of comprehensive carrying capacity,and built a public service evaluation index system including science,technology,education,health care,including information and public facilities,and then did the evaluation and historical simulation of Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei public service capacity system.Combining with the development of the experience of Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta city group,this paper put forward some countermeasures for accelerating the Beijing and Tianjin city group of equalization of public service construction.Fourthly,the relative equilibrium theory is introduced into the research framework of urban agglomeration comprehensive carrying capacity.