Study On The Risk Evaluation Of The Mineral Resources Supply In China

Guaranteeing the national resource safety and security,and supporting the national resource management are the major purposes and tasks of risk evaluation onmineral resources supply.Iron ore is one of the 12 bulk mineral resources in China,featuring the large storage volume,large exploration volume and large demand volume.It takes an significant role in the national economy,being listed in the strategic mineral catalogue and serving as one of the fundamental mineral resources of “2025 Made in China”.Although the iron ore supply is sufficient and the iron ore scope stays at the low level from the global perspective,the domestic iron ore supply in China is insufficient and a large portion of it is imported from concentrated countries.The risk evaluation on the iron ore is typical and representative,playing certain reference values on the exploration,development and production of iron ore resource,downstream industries including the steel manufacturing industry,real estate industry,transportation tools manufacturing of vehicle and shipping,manufacturing industry and home appliance industry.This study used the the polymeric value evaluation method to evaluate the supply risk of iron ore in China.This study selected 8 indicators including demand and supply,reserve-production ratio,foreign-trade dependence,concentration ratio of imported nations,economic contribution degree,global consumption ratio,price fluctuation and recovery rate.these 8 indicators is divided into two types,vulnerability index and risk index.It took the historic data of the iron ore in the world and in China over 15 years from 2000 to 2014 as the basis,analyzed its8 indicators,and defined the baseline of risk for each indicator.the vulnerability index and risk index were taken as the vertical axis and horizontal axis of the matrix,respectively,to analyze the historic risk status of the iron ore in China in the matrix.Besides,on the basis of the historic data of 8 indicators,we defined the warning value for the current indicators,which has guiding significance on the following-up risk monitoring.It calculated 8 indicators based on the iron ore resource data in 2015 and 2016,defined the risk rating of each indicators and then made the general rate.By doing so,Welearn that the supply risk of iron ore in China is mainly resulted from the high dependency on foreign countries and the large global consumption rate.In accordance with the demand-supply trend of Chinese and global iron ore,the Chinese supply risk of iron ore in 2025 and in 2030 still stays at the medium upper level.But in general,the risk shows the declining trend.In terms of the supply risk confronted by the iron ore supply in China,this thesisproposed specific risk treatment countermeasures from the global level,regional level and national level.