| Since the opening reform,China has made great progress in economic development and people's living standard has been increased constantly.However,the growth of GDP was over-emphasized in the past,which has resulted in ecological environment worsening.Therefore,under the current situation of downward pressure on economic growth and serious issues on structural adjustment,it is urgent to achieve the green economy development.Recently,the panic of haze and the yearn for "APEC Blue" highlight people's concern about environmental problems.Theoretically,industrial agglomeration can affect the pollution emissions in two ways.The one is the direct influence of industrial agglomeration on pollution emissions.More specifically,industrial agglomeration can not only reduce the pollution in terms of economies of scale of pollution control,technology diffusion spillover effect and structural adjustment,but also increase the pollution in terms of expansionary effect caused by production capacity expansion,augmented technology,and lock-in effect.The other is that industrial agglomeration can indirectly affect pollution by the means of technology innovation and structural optimization.Because of the complicated influence mechanism of industrial agglomeration on pollution emissions,it leads to the complex relationship between industrial agglomeration and pollution become complicated,which depends on the combination of different factors.Currently,the realities China faces are that the higher the level of industrial agglomeration is,the more serious the pollution becomes,such as ecological environment deterioration,environmental degradation,high incidence of urban disease and the constant increase of environmental pollution.On the surface,a positive correlation exists between industrial agglomeration and pollution emissions.However,in theory industrial agglomeration has the reduction effect on pollution emissions.What is the relationship between industrial agglomeration and pollution emissions?What is the influence mechanism of industrial agglomeration on pollution emissions?Therefore,based on the perspective of negative externalities of industrial agglomeration,this paper explored the influence mechanism and the effect path of industrial agglomeration on industrial pollution.This paper also deeply investigated the relationship between industrial agglomeration and pollution emissions and proposed the development model of industrial agglomeration for policy makers.The main conclusions of this paper are as follows.Firstly,by using multiple econometric methods(e.g.FE,Sys-GMM),an N-shape curvilinear relationship was identified between industrial agglomeration and total emission of sulfur dioxide(SO2)on the basis of the panel data cross China's thirty provinces from 2000 to 2014.More specifically,when the level of industrial agglomeration was low,the pollution emission was increased;when the level was in a certain range,the pollution emission was decreased;but when the level was high,the pollution emission was increased again.Combining this finding with current situation in China,it can be found that,in 2014,nine eastern coastal provinces were in the range where the industrial agglomeration reduced both the SO2 emission and emission intensity,while most of Chinese provinces lay in the range where the industrial agglomeration reduced the SO2 emission intensity but increased the total emission.Only four Chinese western provinces were in the range where the amount of SO2 emission was increased by the industrial agglomeration.Secondly,based on the panel data of thirty provinces from 2000 to 2014,this paper utilized the method of SBM-GML to calculate the technology innovation index.The indirect influence of industrial agglomeration on pollution emissions through technology innovation path has been identified by constructing simultaneous equation of industrial agglomeration,technology innovation and pollution.The empirical results indicate that the indirect effect of industrial agglomeration on pollution emissions via technology innovation path is-0.035.The reason for such results can be explained as that the industrial agglomeration promotes the technology innovation in terms of sharing effect,human capital effect,knowledge spillover effect,and technology innovation,clean technology.In particular,the progress in clean technology obviously reduces the pollution emissions.In addition,based on the perspectives of different periods and regions,the indirect effect of industrial agglomeration on pollution emissions exhibits differentiation through the path of technology innovation.On the basis of different periods,the indirect effect of industrial agglomeration on pollution through technology is 0.076 during 2001-2007,and is-0.14 during 2008-2014.With regard to different region,the indirect effect of industrial agglomeration on pollution through technology is-0.931 in the eastern region,but is 0.0098 in the central and western regions.This phenomenon can be attributed to the double-edged effect of technology innovation on pollution emissions.The reduction of pollution and the expansion of output size are promoted by the technical progress,moreover the expansion effect of pollution emission is brought.The influence of technology innovation on pollution emission relies on the interaction between emission reduction effect and expansion effect of pollution.Thirdly,based on the panel data of thirty provinces from 2000 to 2014.This paper employed the method of mediation effect.The indirect influence of industrial agglomeration on pollution through structure optimization has been tested.The results show that industrial structure plays the mediating role between industrial agglomeration and pollution emissions.Industrial agglomeration enhances the rationalization and centralization of industrial structure,which leads to the important influence on the pollution emission.In practical terms,a percentage point increase in the rationalization of industrial structure can reduce the total SO2 emission and the emission strength by 0.53 and 0.72 percent respectively.Likewise,one percentage point increase in the advancement of industrial structure could reduce the total SO2 emission and the emission strength by 0.44 and 0.61 percent respectively.The indirect effect of industrial agglomeration on pollution through structure optimization among different regions is significant for different regions.In the eastern region,the industrial agglomeration improves the rationalization and optimization of industrial structure,which in turn reduces the pollution emission.On the contrary,in the central and western regions,the industrial agglomeration improves the rationalization,but inhibits the optimization of industrial structure.The rationalization and optimization increases the total SO2 emission but reduces the emission intensity.Finally,based on the further research of the direct effect and functioning path of industrial agglomeration on pollution emissions,this paper proposed some suggestions base on the perspectives of industrial agglomeration promotion,technology innovation facilitation,industrial structure upgrading,foreign direct investment(FDI)stimulation and environmental planning.More specifically,government can implement diversified industrial agglomeration strategies;improve the level of human capital and the construction of technology innovation networking;increase the investment on technology innovation;eliminate the technology barrier;support the high-tech industrial agglomeration;promote the green development of secondary industry and accelerate the shift from second industry towards tertiary industry.Chinese government can also optimize the internal structure of tertiary industry;implement diversified industry upgrading strategy;take full advantage of the technology spillover effect of FDI;focus on the quality and flow direction of FDI;implement the diversified environmental planning strategy and improve the informal environmental regulation level. |
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