| China's economic aggregate ranks second in the world,because China's economy has been developing rapidly since reform and opening up.However,the rapid development of the economy is accompanied by more and more serious environmental pollution problems,such as the waste of resources,environmental pollution and greenhouse gas emissions from the rapid development of secondary industry,especially carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gas emissions.According to the International Energy Agency(IEA)report,the global economic growth rate was 3.1% in 2016,but greenhouse gas emissions were released 32.1 billion tonnes.China has become the country with the most caron emissions,since the carbon emissions in China has more than 10 billion tonns which is more than the sum of the European and global carbon emissions and accounts for about 30% of the total.So China is duty-bound to control greenhouse gas emissions and reduce environmental damage as the country with the largest carbon emissions.Therefore,China is facing tremendous pressure on both energy conservation and emissions reduction and economic development.On the one hand,we need to look at the relationship between our development and environment from a global perspective,and assume the responsibility of energy conservation and emission reduction.On the other hand,we need to compete with other countries in economic aspects,so as to solve the obvious conflict between internal economy and ecological development.Under this background,at the 2009 global climate change conference in Copenhagen,the Chinese government's commitment to reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 40%~50% in 2020 in order to show the determination to control greenhouse gas emissions and reduce the pressure brought by other countries.Then,at the 2015 global climate change conference in Paris,the reduced volume was promoted to 60%~65% on the basis of its original goal.According to the statistics of the United Nations Food Agriculture Organization(FAO),agricultural production has become the second largest source of greenhouse gas emissions in the world,and developing low carbon agriculture can offset 80% of the agricultural greenhouse gases.China is a large agricultural country with scarce natural resources in order to ensure the effective implementation of the commitment,China needs to stabilize the economic development and ensure grain production,and at the same time,control of carbon emissions to the utmost extent.Maize is one of the most widely planted crops in China.How to improve the carbon emission efficiency of maize production has become the focus that related institutions need to pay attention to.In view of this,this paper takes the carbon emission efficiency of maize production in China as the research object,first of all,systemically collate the related literature at home and abroad,review and summarize some important concepts and related theories involved in the paper,and prepare for the later research work.Secondly,the carbon emission and carbon emission intensity of China's maize production provinces are calculated in detail,which not only enhances macro cognition,but also provides data support for the calculation of carbon emission efficiency in maize production in China.Thirdly,the carbon emissions of maize production in China are analyzed in time and space,and the relationship is discussed between the carbon emission efficiency of maize production and the regional economic indexes in China is discussed,and the key factors that lead to the change of carbon emission efficiency in maize production in China are explored.Finally,based on the above analysis,on the dual basis of practice and theory,we put forward scientific and reasonable opinions on the implementation of low carbon maize production strategy and relevant policy formulation in the relevant departments of our country,in order to provide the necessary data support and policy reference for our country to practice the ecological civilization and promote the development of low carbon maize production.The main conclusions of this paper are as follows:First,the total amount of carbon emission in maize production in China is increasing in the observation period,and the carbon emission intensity of maize production is fluctuating,and the difference between regions is obvious.Using the agricultural carbon emission model to calculate the carbon emissions of China's maize production provinces and analyze the temporal and spatial characteristics of carbon emissions,the results show that:(1)In 2015,the carbon emissions of maize production in 2015 in China were 38.088 million tons,and 175.23% more than that in 1996.The elements of the top three carbon emissions in 2015 were fertilizer(37.75%),nitrogen fertilizer(21.71%)and agricultural diesel(12.67%)respectively.Further analysis showed there were an upward trend,namely rapid rise,fluctuant rise,rapid rise and steady rise.(2)From the regional perspective,the main source of carbon emissions in maize production in china is the traditional maize planting area,especially the main producing area of maize.The fastest growing region of the carbon emissions is the Northwest spring maize production area,reaching an annual average growth rate of 7.74%.The other maize planting areas are ranked by annual growth rate,from large to small order in the Northeast of spring maize production area,Southwest maize production area,North China summer mazie production area,the Northwest southwest northeast,i.e the Northwest,the Northeast,the Southwest and the North China.(3)From the provincial perspective,the provinces(cities and districts)with large annual growth rate of carbon emissions in China are mainly concentrated in provinces with large maize planting area and more corn production,and the top six provinces are in Heilongjiang,Hebei,Jilin,Henan,Inner Mongolia and Liaoning respectively.(4)From the carbon emission intensity of maize production,the carbon emission intensity of maize production in China showed a fluctuating upward trend,and the western provinces increased the fastest.The first five provinces were in Xinjiang,Gansu,Ningxia,Yunnan and Guangxi respectively.Inner Mongolia,Heilongjiang,Henan,Jilin and Liaoning were the provinces with better carbon emission intensity,and all of these five provinces belonged to the eastern maize planting and the big yield provinces.To sum up,the difference of carbon emission intensity of maize production in China is obvious.Second,the growth of carbon emission efficiency of maize production in China is generally slow,and it dependents on the progress of maize production frontiers,rather than the improvement of maize production technology efficiency.This paper uses the DEA-Malmquist model to calculate and analyze the carbon emission efficiency of maize production in China,in order to explore the provincial difference and change trend of China's carbon emission efficiency index and its decomposition index.The conclusions are as follows: First,the variation of carbon emission efficiency in China's maize production shows an inverted U patten,and the variation trend of the efficiency index is not optimistic.According to its variation characteristics,it can be roughly divided into three stages: fluctuation stage,slow step up stage and synchronous attenuation stage.From the trend of the growth rate of three efficiency indexes,such as technical efficiency,frontier technology progress efficiency and total factor productivity,the growth of total factor productivity and the slow growth of technical efficiency in improving the carbon emission efficiency of China's maize production have been kept in sync with the rapid growth of advanced technological progress.It is obvious that technical efficiency is the influence of maize students in China in recent years.The main influencing factors of carbon emission efficiency,but the progress rate of this factor needs to be improved.Third,the carbon emission efficiency of maize production in China has a more obvious spatial disequilibrium.In general,the northwest region is the highest,the North China and the Northeast are the second,and the southwest is the lowest.The results show that there are two main reasons for the fastest growth of carbon emission efficiency in the northwest region.On the one hand,the improvement of technical efficiency has a positive effect on the carbon emission efficiency of maize production in Northwest China,which leads to the fastest growth of the carbon emission efficiency in the four maize production regions in Northwest China.On the other hand,the efficiency of maize production in Northwest China is moderate,which indicates that the allocation of resources in the process of maize production is reasonable,which promotes the rapid growth of carbon emission efficiency of maize production.The carbon emission efficiency of maize production in North China and Northeast China is always in a relatively stable state.The main reason is that the technological efficiency of carbon emission efficiency in the above two regions and the efficiency of advanced technological progress are higher than that in the southwest region.The two efficiency index has played a decisive role,which jointly promoted the carbon efficiency of maize production in two regions.Promote? In the end,Southwest China is a relatively weak region in the region of maize production in China.Compared with other maize production areas,the carbon emission efficiency of maize production is relatively low and the power is insufficient.Fourth,among the factors affecting the carbon emission efficiency of maize production in China,the price index of agricultural production data,the scale of agricultural labor force and the number of regional agricultural enterprises have a significant negative impact on the carbon emission efficiency of corn production,and the price of corn has a significant positive effect.In this paper,we use dynamic panel model to analyze the influencing factors of carbon emission efficiency of maize production in China.The results show that:(1)The influence coefficient of the first order lag term of the carbon emission efficiency of maize production is positive,which is normal,and the situation of maize production in the past year usually has an effect on the future development situation.(2)The price index of agricultural production data and the input of agricultural labor force have a significant negative effect on the carbon emission efficiency of maize production.It shows that the two parties are an important part of the cost of maize production,and there is a significant demand rigidity.If the price rises,the operators do not reduce the conditions of the use of the corn,and the result is that the profit is encroached on the condition of the failure of carbon emissions to be reduced.It also leads to the results of the regression,which also shows that the corn planting industry in China still relies on the input of production data and labor force,and has not been able to go out of the model of extensive development.(3)The effect of the price of agricultural diesel oil on the carbon emission efficiency of maize production is not significant,which indicates that the mechanization or mechanization of maize production in most areas of China is not high,so that the impact of agricultural oil price on corn production is low.(4)The number of regional agricultural enterprises has a significant impact on the carbon emission efficiency of maize production,indicating that the developed area of the economy is limited and the carbon emission efficiency of maize production is reduced in the absence of economies of scale.(5)The price of corn has a significant positive effect on the efficiency of carbon emission.In the short term,the price of corn increases,which increases the profit of maize production and improves the efficiency of carbon emission.Fifth,the technical efficiency of maize production in Jilin province has been in a long-term stagnation for nearly ten years,and the lowest carbon emission efficiency in 2014.Through the data collection and arrangement of the input and output elements in the process of maize production in Jilin Province,the carbon emission efficiency was analyzed by using the time series DEA model.The results showed that:(1)The carbon emission efficiency of maize production in Jilin province showed a relatively severe upper and lower shocks,the main reason was that the technical efficiency of maize production was in a long-term stagnation state,and the scale efficiency and comprehensive efficiency showed a synchronous increase and decline trend,indicating that the main reason for the growth of maize production carbon emission efficiency was the scale of maize production in Jilin province.(2)In 2014,the profit of maize production in Jilin province fell sharply compared with other years,its comprehensive efficiency value reached the lowest value,and a large number of input factors were redundant,which was mainly influenced by the national corn policy and the external market environment.Sixth,we should increase the carbon emission efficiency of maize production from many aspects,not only to pursue its rapid economic development,but also to accelerate the development of low carbon maize production.In order to promote the development of low carbon maize production in China,we can put forward the relevant countermeasures and suggestions from three aspects.The specific contents include:(1)Optimizing the use of agricultural capital,improving the carbon emission efficiency of maize production,and facing the rapid growth of the annual use of agricultural products,so that it must be utilized rationally and efficiently to reduce the use intensity of agricultural products.(2)To gradually improve the construction of low carbon maize production policy support system,China has a vast territory.There are obvious differences in water and heat conditions,soil structure and geological and geomorphology in different regions,which leads to the obvious regional parameter differences in the carbon emission efficiency of maize production throughout the country.Therefore,when making agricultural carbon emission reduction policy,the state can not be all cut across the board.We should adopt corresponding policies and measures according to the provincial and regional characteristics of maize production.(3)To establish a low carbon economic development consciousness,strengthen the research and development of low carbon maize production technology,promote the investment in the low carbon production technology propaganda,apply the low carbon economy theory to the corn production,and change the development model of maize production. |
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