| At the 2009 Copenhagen climate conference,our government made the commitment of carbon emissions of per unit GDP of 2020 decreased by 40%~45% compared to 2005.At the 2015 Paris climate conference,our government made the commitment that carbon emissions of 2030 will reach the peak as soon as possible.China’s carbon emission reduction pressure is increasing with the carbon reduction commitment converts from relative amount to absolute amount.The government also gradually increases emphasis on energy and environmental problems,China’s energy policy gradually transformes from ensuring energy supply to optimizing energy structure,saving energy and improving energy efficiency.In addition,the requirements for energy conservation gradually transformes from energy intensity control to “dual control” of total energy consumption and intensity.Energy consumption intensity is equal to total energy consumption divided by gross domestic product,it is a relative quantity control index and its control intensity is weak.Total energy consumption control is the "ceiling" for energy consumption in the future.It is an absolute measure of control and its control intensity is strong.With the government’s increasing emphasis on energy and environmental problems,the energy policy documents intensively put forward requirements about total energy consumption control,and the emphasis degree of total quantity control exceeds intensity control.The control policy gradually transforms into mainly based on total energy consumption control with the help of energy consumption intensity control.The 12 th five-year plan for energy development,released on January 1,2013,proposed the implementation of "double control" of total energy consumption and intensity,and set a target constraint on total energy consumption in 2015.The atmospheric pollution prevention plan,released in September 2013,put forward to control the total coal consumption for the first time,and that the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region,Yangtze River Delta,the Pearl River Delta realizes the coal consumption of negative growth.The energy development strategy action plan(2014~2020),released in November 2014,put forward that China’s total primary energy consumption should be controlled in about 4.8 billion tons of standard coal in 2020 and coal consumption should be controlled in about 4.2 billion tons.The 13 th five-year plan for energy development,released in December 2016,proposed that China’s total energy consumption should be controlled within 5 billion tons of standard coal in 2020.Based on this background,this paper studies the impact and optimization of total energy consumption control.The implementation of total energy consumption control is conducive to the formation of forcing mechanism for the total energy consumption,which plays an important role in energy conservation and emission reduction.However,energy is an important factor to ensure economic growth,therefore,what impact the total energy consumption control will have on the economy and environment? This paper uses the carbon emissions of energy consumption to represent the environmental impact.According to the double-digit industry classification of the national standand classification of economic sectors(GB/T 4754-2017)and the published data in the statistical yearbook,this paper divides the three main industries into 40 industries.The main contents of this study are:Based on the influence analysis of energy consumption on economy and environment,this paper studies the economic and environmental impact of energy consumption control in 2013,forecasts the impact of energy consumption control in 2020,optimizes energy consumption of various industries in order to achieve economic and environmental benefits and put forward the supporting policy design of total energy consumption control.Research topic of this paper is advantageous to the comprehensive understanding of the positive and negative effects of total energy consumption control,which is of great significance to formulate relevant energy,economy and environment policy and realize the goal of energy consumption control.The specific contents and conclusions of the study are as follows:Chapter 1,introduction.This chapter discusses the research background from the function and historical evolution of energy policies in China,and puts forward the five problems to be solved in this paper,including the economic and environmental impact of energy consumption,the economic and environmental impact of energy consumption control policy released in 2013,the economic and environmental impact of energy consumption control in 2020,energy consumption optimization in various industries and relative policy design of energy consumption control.It also expounds the content and significance of the research,and discusses the method and technical route.Chapter 2,literature review and theoretical basis.Based on the above five problems,this paper summarizes the existing researches in and abroad and expounds the research space of this paper.It also expounds theoretical basis of Energy Economics,Environmental Economics,3E Theory,Sustainable Development Theory,Pigou Theory and Coase Theorem.Chapter 3,economic and environmental impact analysis of energy consumption.This chapter analyzes the current situation and characteristics of energy consumption in China and studies the influence of energy consumption on economic growth in two aspects of static and dynamic states.Based on the static panel model,this chapter studies the impact of energy consumption on whole industry and industrial sector and get the conclusion that the effect of energy consumption in industrial sector’s economic growth is greater than its impact on the whole industry.A 1% increase in energy consumption in the whole industry will lead to an increase of 0.1777% in total output,and a 1% increase in energy consumption in the industrial sector will lead to an increase of 0.3187% in total output.It also established the panel VAR model(PVAR),studies the impact of energy consumption on whole industry and industrial sector in dynamic view and get the conclusion that the effect of energy consumption in industrial sector’s economic growth is greater than its impact on the whole industry in 10 periods.The fluctuation of whole industry’s total output growth rate in response to the shock of energy consumption growth is between 0.0048 and 0.0145,which of the industrial sector is between 0.0056 and 0.0158.In this paper,we use the carbon emissions of energy consumption respresents environmental impacts,calculates the energy consumption carbon emissions in China,analyzes the current situation and characteristics of carbon emissions and expounds the economic and environmental impact mechanism of total energy consumption control.Chapter 4,study on the economic and environmental impact of total energy consumption control in 2013.Based on the panel data of industrial sector from 2000 to 2015,we build the Single-Difference model and study the average economic impact and environmental impact of the total energy consumption control on the industrial sector.We build the Difference-in Differences model and study the heterogeneity economic and environmental impact.In aspect of economic impact,the implementation of energy consumption control leads to industrial sector’s average output growth rate decline by 8.10% since 2013 and decline by 10.23%,5.74% and 8.40% respectively in 2013~2015.We introduce the concept of energy intensity and get the conclusion that implementation of energy consumption control leads to significant negative effect on high energy intensive industries’ output growth rate but has a hysteresis quality,which leads to high energy intensive industries’ output growth rate decline 5.5% more.From the point of dynamic effect,it leads to decline 7.06% and 6.99% respectively in 2014 and 2015,and its impact on the year of 2013 is not significant.In aspect of environmental impact,we use the carbon emissions of energy consumption respresents its environmental impacts and get the conclusion that the imlpementation of energy consumption control impels the carbon emissions of industrial sector decline by 3.95% in average,and impels the decline of 5.37% and 8.32% respectively in 2013 and 2014.We introduce the concept of carbon intensity and get the conclusion that implementation of energy consumption control has not significantly reduce carbon emissions of high carbon intensity industries,and energy efficiency and energy structure are the two major reasons that lead to insignificant decline of carbon emissions in high carbon intensity industries.Chapter 5,study on the economic and environmental impact of total energy consumption control in 2020.In this chapter,we study the economic growth rate and carbon intensity in the 13 th five-year plan period when China’s total energy consumption is 5 billion tons of standard coal in 2020.Based on the combination prediction model of Exponential Smoothing method,ARIMA model,IDGM(1,1)model and VAR model,China’s household energy consumption is predicted from 2016 to 2020.Based on the Markov Chain model,energy consumption structure of 40 industries and household are predicted in 2016~2020.80 energy consumption coefficients are predicted based on the non-restricted VAR model,of which ranks the top 80% importance of the total 320 coefficients.We set two different scenarios: scenario 1,we assume that the proportion of energy consumption in each industry in 2020 will remain unchanged in 2015.Scenario 2,we assume that the proportion of energy consumption in each industry in 2020 will be calculated according to its historical changes.In aspect of economic impact,we conclude that the current year price GDP of 2020 will be 94,909.99 billion yuan RMB and the average annual growth rate of the 13 th five-year plan period will be 5.1481% in scenario 1.And the current year price GDP of 2020 will be 100,753 billion yuan RMB and the average annual growth rate of the 13 th five-year plan period will be 6.4121% in scenario 2.The average annual growth rates of the two scenarios are all less than 6.5%.In aspect of environmental impact,we conclude that carbon intensity of 2020 decreased by 47.38% than that of 2005 in scenario 1,which overfulfilled the commitment made in the Copenhagen climate conference of carbon emissions of per unit GDP of 2020 decreased by 40%~45% compared to 2005.And carbon intensity of 2020 is 12.64% lower than that of 2015,and the binding requirement of “carbon intensity of 2020 is 18% lower than that of 2015” in the outline of the 13 th five-year plan is not completed.In scenario 2,carbon intensity of 2020 is 50.62% lower than that of 2020,which overfulfills the commitment of the Copenhagen climate conference.Carbon intensity of 2020 is 18.03% lower than that of 2015,which only just completed the binding requirement of the 13 th five-year plan outline.Chapter 6,study on energy consumption optimization based on Multi-Objective Decision Making model.In this chapter,we study the optimal energy consumption of all industries in 2020 when the goals of largest economic aggregate,the minimum total carbon emission and the greatest equity are reached.The optimization model of goals of the largest economic aggregate,the minimum total carbon emission and the greatest equity and the multi-objective optimization model of the above three goals are respectively constructed,and the Ideal Point method is used to solve the problem.According to the multi-objective optimization model,we conclude that the energy consumption optimization results can achieve annual economic growth rate of 7.26% in the 13 th five-year plan period,which overfulfill the requirements for the annual economic growth of 6.5%.The optimization results also achieve 27.9542 billion tons of carbon emissions in 2020 and carbon emissions of per unit GDP in 2005 decreased by 52.94% compared with 2005,which overfulfill the commitment made in the Copenhagen climate conference of carbon emissions of per unit GDP in 2020 decreased by 40%~45% compared to 2005.And carbon intensity of 2020 is 21.88% lower than that of 2015,and the binding requirement of “carbon intensity of 2020 is 18% lower than that of 2015” in the outline of the 13 th five-year plan is completed.Besides,the optimization result is the fairest under the constraints,which consider fairness and efficiency at the same time.Chapter 7,supporting policy design of total energy consumption control.In this chapter,we analyze the mechanism of economic means based on Pigou Theory and Coasian Theory.We propose the construction idea of energy utilization rights trading mechanism from segments of monitoring,certification and trading.Based on the principal-agent theory,considering the participation constraint and incentive compatibility constraint conditions,we study the optimal fixed and flexible energy saving subsidies.Besides,we analyze government’s optimal supervision level considering cost and loss.Chapter 8,conclusions and prospects.This chapter summarizes the main conclusions and innovation points,and puts forward the future work prospects.The main innovations of this paper are as follows:(1)This paper builds a static panel data model based on the C-D Production Function and a dynamic panel data model based on the STIRPAT model to quantitatively estimate the influence of total energy consumption control in 2013 on economy and environment.This paper builds the difference-in-differences model of influence of total energy consumption control on economic heterogeneity and environmental heterogeneity to analyze the relationship between the total energy consumption control in 2013 and economic heterogeneity of high energy intensive industries and environmental heterogeneity of high carbon intensive industries.(2)This paper builds the combined forecasting model of household energy consumption,the Markov model of the energy consumption structure prediction and the non-restrictive VAR model of energy consumption coefficient of each industry and predicts the economic aggregate and economic growth rate,total carbon emissions and carbon intensity of China’s total energy consumption of 5 billion tons of standard coal in 2020 in two different scenarios.(3)This paper builds the multi-objective optimization model with consideration of fairness and efficiency,calculates the optimal energy consumption of each industry with the goal of maximum economy,minimum carbon emissions and the strongest fairness.This paper puts forward supporting policies to promote the implementation of total energy consumption control,designs the ideas of energy-using trading mechanism based on the Coase Theory and calculates the government’s optimal energy-saving subsidies and regulation level. |
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