Risk Evaluation Of Social Stability And Control Methods In Major Highway Projects

Major highway projects have the characteristics of large-scale investment,long construction period,large interest groups and complex surrounding environment.All these bring huge social stability risks to the implementation and construction of major highway projects such as land acquisition and house demolition,resettlement.protection,environmental damage,cultural conflicts and other issues.How to evaluate risk of social stability in major highway targeted objective and effective,make the evaluate process quantifying,thus control the related risks more objectively and reasonably has become an urgent problem in the process of major highway projects.Therefore,this article is based on an in-depth investigation of the influencing factors of the social stability risks in major highway projects and an analysis of their occurrence mechanisms,establish a social stability risk evaluation index system in major highway projects and determine the weight of each index;Based on the theory model of cloud inference,the risk evaluation method of social stability in major highway projects is constructed;put forward the control method of social stability risk in major highway projects,to provide scientific methods and theoretical basis for the evaluation and control of social stability risk in major highway projects.The main findings are as follows:(1)Analysis of social stability risk factors influencing in major highway projects.First,define the social stability risks in major highway projects and define the connotations;analyze the conditions for the occurrence of social stability risks in major highway projects;and elaborate the harms of social stability risks in major highway projects;based on the above two points,collection and investigation the factors affecting the social stability involved in the project from the aspects of legality,rationality,feasibility,and controllability;expounded the impact mechanism of social stability risks in major highway projects from economic,social and cultural aspects.(2)Construction of social stability risk evaluation index system in major highway projects.First,based on the analysis of risk factors,select evaluation indicators that can reflect the characteristics of each influencing factor scientifically and objectively.Secondly,analysis of various assessment indicators sensitivity,initial screening of risk indicators based on the BP(back propagation),build evaluation index system from four aspects: rationality,legality,feasibility,and controllability;finally,the weight of each index is determined based on the AHP-entropy weight method.The results show that the social stability risk evaluation index system in major highway projects includes 4 primary indicators and 25 secondary indicators.(3)Risk evaluation methods of social stability in major highway projects.First of all,the normal cloud theory is applied to predict the social stability and uncertainty of major highway projects,construct cloud language prediction rules based on conditional cloud generator;based on this,a prediction model for social stability rates of major highway projects based on cloud inference models was proposed;after calculate the possible degree of social stability risks in major highway projects,introduce the social risk stability rate of major highway projects;the social stability risk grades in major highway projects are divided into 3,4,and 5 levels,and state descriptions are made,the results shows that the more levels are divided,the more accurate the description of the social stability risk state.(4)Research on risk control strategic and control methods of social stability in major highway projects.First,proposed the specific process and content of the major highway Projects social stability risk control decision,cleared the transition from risk assessment to risk control.On this basis,four major highway projects social stability risk control strategies based on risk avoidance,loss control,risk transfer,and risk retention were proposed to provides guidelines for the development of risk control methods.Finally,according to different stages of pre-control,process control and post-control,major social stability risk control methods for highway projects were proposed from the decision phase,construction phase,and operation phase.