Research On Risk Evaluation Of Intematioanl Railway Corridors Construction Among Countries Along "the Belt And Road"

Since Chinese government puts forward “Belt and Road” initiative in 2013,including building six economic corridors such as China-Mongolia-Russia corridor,New Eurasian Land Bridge,China-Central Asia-West Asia corridor,China-Pakistan corridor,China-Indo-China Peninsula,and Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar corridor,with priority on infrastructure connectivity among countries along “Belt and Road”.International railway corridor as the important carrier of economic corridor construction,arousing great concern from the world and related countries and international organizations put forward with many plans for international corridors.China railway participates at construction of international railway corridors,which is not only the requirement of national strategy and also the inner demand of utilizing domestic and international market and promoting self-development.Meanwhile,international railway corridor construction is a complicated system engineering,involving various countries,different national conditions,distinct economic strength,and diverse political background,which indicates risk and challenge of corridor cannot be ignored.It is necessary to build a systematic theory and method,guiding China railway to select an optimal plan for corridor route,evaluate and avoid related construction risks,and better participate at international railway corridor construction.Therefore,this paper,starting from planning scheme of international railway corridor construction,takes the main line of the life circle of construction demand,risk identification,risk evaluation and risk prevention,and the main content includes international railway corridor planning,corridor construction project demand,capability to involve in international railway corridor construction,market environment and international cooperation strategy,risk identification of corridor project,risk evaluation indicators system,risk evaluation theory and method,risk quantification evaluation model,and risk prevention countermeasures.The main research findings are as following:(1)put forwards with demand for “Belt and Road” international corridor construction and overall strategyWith the target of six economic corridors along “Road and Belt” established by Chinese government,this paper analyses railway infrastructure and future plan of countries along “Road and Belt” and proposes 35 projects of newly built/rebuilt international railway projects,keep abreast of potential market scale of China railway to participate at international railway corridor construction,analyzes SWOT matrix for China railway to participate at international corridor construction,market environment and participation possibility,raises overall strategy for railway corridor construction from strategy level,government level and industry level.(2)propose the logic and procedure of progressive decision-making and bilayer risk evaluation at the top levelInternational railway corridor is on the progress of dynamic transformation,and ever-changing international situation will trigger the adjustment of corridor planning.Corridor,with distinct linear feature,indicates that the missing or unsmooth of any section will become the bottleneck restricting railway corridor capacity.Aiming at the above features,this paper puts forward with the logic and procedure of progressive decision-making and bilayer risk evaluation at the top level,that is,firstly to determine the optimal corridor path for economic corridors from macro perspective,and progressively determine the optimal corridor path when situation changes,and then clarify the missing links or old and worn-out railways based on exsiting railway infrastructure from micro perspective and analyze the current risks and put forward with countermeasures from the perspective of project construction.When situation changes,the process will iteratively enter the procedure and evaluate the optimal route plan.(3)construct macro-level and micro-level risks evaluation indicators and quantitative modelHowever,currently the research of risk for railway construction only confines to single project,and is not applicable for railway corridor including various railway projects.The analyzing method mainly focuses on qualitative analysis and expert experience,and lacks systematic theories of quantitative analysis and evaluation.This paper compares various risk identification methods,constructs corridor construction risks list based on expert investigation method,case study and work breakdown method,constructs macro-level and micro-level double level risks evaluation indicators for railway project construction,proposes double level risks evaluation and progressive decision-making procedure for international railway corridor construction,compares various risk evaluation theories and quantitative computing models,builds industry risk evaluation model from macro national perspective based on principal component analysis for variable structure and micro project risk evaluation model based on analytic hierarchy process and grey fuzzy evaluation method,and carries out verification for model accuracy.In terms of applicability for double-level risk evaluation model,it can not only apply to traditional micro-level project risk evaluation,and also provide support for route layout for corridors from macro-level.In terms of accuracy,macro model establishes the risk evaluation system based on authoritative data from world bank and other resources with the advantage of data availability,authority,and reproducibility of evaluation process,while micro model combines the edge of analytic hierarchy process and gray analysis,reduces subjectivity of experts and elevates accuracy of risk evaluation through consistency check of analytic hierarchy process and gray fuzzy evaluation.(4)case study of China Europe international railway corridorThis paper finally takes China-Europe railway corridor as the object for case study,progressively compares various corridor paths,proposes China-KazakhstanKyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan-Turkey-Iran as the optimal route,analyzes construction risks for the crucial missing links,clarifies Alma-Ata-Bishkek-Tashkent,Samarkand-Ashgabat as the high risk sections,puts forward with the recommended corridor plan and countermeasures for sections with highest risks.The research achievement will produce practical significance and application value for elevating risk prevention awareness of China railway to participate at oversea projects,improving risk prevention capability for China railway to go global,and better serving “Belt and Road” construction.