Research On Aging Efecting On Residual Consumption And Its Regional Difference

Since new century,the most prominent feature of China's population structure change is population aging.Although population ageing in a certain extent is the manifestation of social progress,under the underdeveloped condition of our social economy,this change is now an important issue in China's social and economic development.In fact,as the deepening of in our country,insufficiency of Chinese consumption demand has become a prominent feature of economic development in recent years,and it's one of the most important factors restricting China's economic growth.Also it's an important economic problem the government concerns and solves.In addition,under the influence of the urban and rural dual system,China's rural aging degree is significantly higher than the city and the phenomenon will continue in the short term.So,facing the fact that the economic growth is troubled by insufficiency of residents consumption demand in our country,what is the direction and intensity of the impact of the increasingly serious aging on the consumption level of rural residents and consumption expenditure structure?with China's vast territory,difference and imbalance exist in population distribution among different areas,which causes aging degree differences between regions,Are there regional differences in these effects?These problems is very worthy of attention.Discussion on these problems has important practical significance in searching for possible path to expand domestic demand and lasting power,grasping the direction of industrial restructuring and making policy of regional population and economic.Around the above research questions,this paper takes age which is an important factor affecting residents consumption as the logical starting point of the research,tries to analyze the impact of population aging on rural residents' consumption from two aspects of theory and empirical.Theoretical analysis is to explain the impact of population aging on the rural residents' consumption mechanism and the influence path,forms analysis framework of this article;Empirical study tests direction and intensity of aging effecting on the rural residents' consumption from the aspects of macroscopic and microscopic which based on a theoretical analysis framework and whether or not there exists regional differences in these effects.This paper,on the basis of related literature and theory,constructs the theoretical framework for the aging influence the rural residents' consumption,and aging in rural areas and the present situation of the residents' consumption are analyzed,and then uses household cross section data and provincial panel data to empirically.The research is divided into eight chapters,the main research contents and conclusions of this paper are as follows:content 1:consumption characteristics in aged period and its regional differences.in the rural residents' life-cycleThe aim of this part is to analyze the relation between rural residents'consumption and age change and its regional differences from the perspective of life-cycle.According to the empirical results,from the perspect of the consumption level,the evolution characteristics of rural residents lifecylce consumption increases first and then decreases.Consumption peak appears at the age of 50,so theconsumption level of old age declines with age.From kinds of consumption expenditure,life-cycle consumption characteristics of rural residents in food,clothing,residence,household faclities,transportand communation,education,culture and recreation increases first and then decreases,although the age of consumption is different,before the age of 60,the kinds of consumption level of old age declines with age.From the proportion of kinds of consumption expenditure,rural residents enter into the old stage,the proportion of clothing expenditure continued to decline,the proportion of food and household facilities expenditure continued to maintain an upward trend,while for trasport and communication,education,culture and recreation,health care and medical services,in the 65s there is a turning point,of which the proportion of cultural and educational entertainment expenditure,the proportion of education,culture and recreation,health care and medical services expenditure decline in the trend began to change in an upward trend,while the proportion of trasport and communication expenditure changing from the rising trend to a downward trend.These characteristics are basically consistent in eastern,central and western areas in China,The difference is mainly reflected in the consumption level of rural residents in the level of consumption expenditure and the proportion of aged people.content 2:the impact of family pension on farmers family living consumption level and categories and its regional differences.The aim of this part is to analyze whether there is an effect of the elderly family endowment of farm households on household consumption level and spending as well as its regional differences.According to the regression results of the elderly family support model,the per capita consumption expenditure of pure elderly household is 18.5%lower than nuclear household,Per capita consumption expenditure of including elderly households is 13.3%lower than nuclear household.The regional difference of this effect is per capita consumption expenditure of pure elderly household,In the East it is 35%lower than that of nuclear household,central low 25%,western low 4.84%.consumption per capita of including olderly household In the East is 19.4%lower than that of nuclear household,Central low 10.3%,western low 7.38%.From household consumption expenditure category,In rural areas,the per capita consumption expenditure of pure elderly household in clothing,residence,household facilities,education culture and recreation,transport and communication is 111.4%,21.7%,27.4%,and 101.6%lower than those of the nuclear household,And food,health care and medical serviecs expenditures is higher than 3.12%,15.7%.The per capita consumption expenditure of including elderly household in clothing,residence,household facilities,transport and communication is 9.03%,24.9%,14.7%,12.4%lower than the nuclear households,and household facilities,health care and Medical serviecs,education,education cultural and recreation expenditures are higher than 2.1%,37.4%,60.4%.The regional difference of this effect:In the east,the per capita consumption expenditures of pure olderly household in clothing,education cultural and recreation,transport and communication is 111.4%,21.7%,27.4%,and 101.6%lower than those of the nuclear household,There is no statistical significant difference in all kinds of consumption expenditure including elderly household.For the central region,the per capita consumption expenditures of pure elderly household of rural in clothing,residence,household facilities,education cultural and recreation,transport and communication is 177.2%,47%,34.6%,90.2%,99%lower than those of the nuclear household.food,health care and medical services expenditures are higher than 38.9%,18.1%;the per capita consumption expenditures of including elderly household of rural in clothing,transport and communication are 38.9%,18.1%lower than those of the nuclear household,education cultural and recreation expenditure is high than 74.4%,residence expenditure is lower than 8.36%,household facilities and health care and medical services are high than 7.5%,69.6%,but there are no statistically significant difference.In the western region,the per capita consumption expenditure of pure elderly household of rural in education cultural and recreation,transport and communication are 140.9%,66.8%lower than those of the nuclear household,the per capita consumption expenditure of including elderly household of rural in household facilities is 17.1%lower than those of the nuclear household,health care and medical services,education cultural and recreation expenditures are higher than 4.43%,56.8%.From the perspective of population economic relations estimation model of farm households,the variable of proportion of elderly population has a significant negative impact on the per capita consumption expenditure of rural households and this effect shows the regional difference in the largest in the middle,followed by middle region the smallest in the West.From household consumption expenditure category,the variable of proportion of elderly population has a significant negative impact on expenditure of clothing,residence,household facilities,education cultural and recreation,But the positive effects on expenditure of food,health care and medical services expenditures are not statistically significant.The regional difference of impact on consumer spending category performance:in the eastern region,the variable of proportion of elderly population has a significant negative impact on expenditure of clothing,education cultural and recreation,transport and communication expenditure,but the positive impact on expenditure of food,health care and medical services and the negative impact on expenditure of household facilities and residence are not statistically significant;In the central region,the variable of proportion of elderly population has a significant negative impact on expenditure of clothing,residence,education cultural and recreation,transport and communication,but the positive impact on expenditure of food,health care and medical services and the negative impact on expenditure of household facilities is not statistically significant;In the western region,the variable of proportion of elderly population has a significant negative impact on expenditure of clothing,education cultural and recreation,transport and communication,but the positive impact on expenditure of food,health care and medical services and the negative impact on expenditure of household facilities and residence are not statistically significant.content 3:the impact of the age structure of population aging on the rural residents consumption rate and its regional differences.The aim of this part is under the guidance of analysis framework,by using provincial panel data from 1997 to 2014 in our country,to construct an empirical model and to estimate the effect of population age structure aging on rural residents consumption rate in the country and east-central-west regions.The empirical results of the national sample data shows that the variable of proportion of elderly population reflects that the degree of aging has a significant negative effect on the rural residents consumption rate.The variable of old age population ratio has a significant negative effect on the rural residents consumption rate in east-central-west regions,but the differences in intensity of each area have the greatest impact on the central region,then on the mid-region and have the least impact on the west.Based on the above research results,we can conclude that,regardless of the national point of view,or from the eastern middle and western regions,aging reduces the level of per capita consumption of household households,at the same time also it inhibits the rural residents consumption rate,So aging is detrimental to expanding domestic demand.However,from the consumption structure,aging on expenditure of clothing,residence,transport and communication,education and cultural recreation have significantly inhibitory effect,and aging expenditure of food,health care and medical services has a positive role.Based on the conclusion from the above parts,this paper puts forward policy suggestions on four aspects:first,use more relaxed population birth policy to promote the rural residents' consumption;Second,actively develop silver industry fostering consumption demand growth point;third perfect the relevant social security system of rural residents stable consumer expectations;Fourth,According to local conditions regional harmonious development as a whole.