Research On The Effects Of Rural-urban Migrants On Urban Economic Growth And Wage Premium

Since the late 1980s,large-scale rural labor migrate to cities.The sizes of inter-provincial movement are 11,065 thousand,42,419 thousand and 85,876 thousand in 1990,2000 and 2010 respectively(Jixiang Yu,2013)?In order to realize 60%of the resident population urbanization rate,one hundred million people will move to urban(Wei Tang,Yuan Wang,2015).So why so massive rural labor agglomerate in the urban?And new urbanization is regarded as the only way to modernization,the largest domestic demand and the new power of economic growth(the State Council,8th 2016).So will the new urbanization promoted by rural-urban migrants be the new engineer?And will the economic growth be inclusive,and will the sharing of salary premiums be different among urban labor,local rural-urban migrants and nonlocal rural-urban migrants?In the thesis,the above three questions are closely around.Its research object is provincial cities,sub-provincial cities and prefecture-level cities.And we broke the agglomeration economies into two parts:pecuniary externalities and technical extermalities,which are complementary in explaining agglomeration effects.Firstly we use iceberg trade cost and indirect utility function(the form of Cobb-Douglas)to reshape Puga' model(1998)incorporating pecuniary externalities and technological externalities,and study the influencing factors of rural-urban migrants' mobility.Secondly we study the relationship between the rural-urban migrants and the urban economic growth.From the perspective of agglomeration externalities and Ciccone and Hall's model(1996?2002),this thesis makes the regression equation,employs regression-based decomposition based on Shapley value to empirically analyze the determinants of per-GDP among cities.Thirdly the thesis analyzes the sharing of agglomeration economies.We expand the Mincer's wage determination equation,use city's pecuniary externalities and technological externalities,and also control the individual level's variables such as age,gender,marriage,education level,experience and so on.In the end we make conclusions and suggestions.The above theoretical analysis will be discussed in fourth,fifth and sixth chapter respectively.The fourth chapter establishes empirical model based on theoretical model,using pecuniary externalities(measured by market potential)and technological externalities(measured by population size),and uses the 6th census and urban statistical yearbook,to test the influence of agglomeration economies on rural-urban migrants.And the fifth chapter also uses the 6th census and urban statistical yearbook,and chooses the land area and the percent of rural-urban migrants to the total population in 2000 as IV to find variables that affect the urban economic growth.And then uses the Shapley to find the reasons that enlarge the gap among cities.And the sixth chapter expands the Mincer's wage determination equation.We use city's pecuniary externalities and technological externalities,choose the 1953 first census as ? and also control the individual level's variables such as age,gender,marriage,education level,experiences et al,in order to find the sharing of agglomeration economies.Through the theoretical research and empirical analysis,the main conclusions are as follows:1.There is a typical nonlinear relationship between the flow of rural-urban migrants and urban agglomeration economy.In detail,there is U-shape relationship between pecuniary externalities measured by market potential and the flow of rural-urban migrants,which means that pecuniary externalities need certain market size and economic base,and only when pecuniary externalities reach a certain threshold value,the size of rural-urban migrants will grow with the increase of pecuniary externalities.And there exists "(?)" shape relationship between technological externalities measured by city population and the flow of rural-urban migrants,which means that the size of rural-urban migrants will firstly decline,then increase and descend with the increase of technical externalities.2.The rural-urban migrants do promote urban economic growth,but hukou system weakens the effects,and the gap among cities is expanded.In details,the regression coefficient of the variable of ln(1+m)("m" equals the size of rural-urban migrants divided by that of local residents)is 1.769,which is significant at 1%,and the cross term of variable of "m" and pecuniary extermalities is significantly negative,which means that hukou system does weaken the pecuniary externalities.The cross term between the rural-urban migrants and technological externalities is positive,but not significant,which needs to be studied further.And at last,we use Shapley to decompose the Gini coefficient,Theil index,and find that the flow of rural-urban migrants do increase the gap among cities.3.There exists a positive relation between the agglomeration and wage premium.But on the dual labor market,hukou system makes it different on the sharing of the urban agglomeration externalities.The wage premium from pecuniary externalities is mainly shared by non-local rural-urban migrants and local residents,and the last is local-urban migrants.But wage premium from technological externalities is mainly shared by urban labor,the second is local rural-urban migrants,and the last is noulocal rural-urban migrants.The empirical results show that every increase in the pecuniary externalities and technical externalities,the wage premium will increase by 0.418%and 0.124%respectively.But there exists differences because of hukou system.If the pecuniary externalities increase by 1%,the wage premium of urban labor,local rural-urban migrants and nonlocal rural-urban migrants will increase by 0.417%?0.332%and 0.421%respectively.And if the technological externalities increase by 1%,the wage premium of urban labor,local rural-urban migrants and nonlocal rural-urban migrants will increase by 0.144%?0.119%and 0.072%respectively.The results show that nonlocal rural-urban migrants' wage premium is mainly from pecuniary externalities,and wage premium form technological externalities is mainly shared by urban labor.And our findings have policy implications on how Chinese cities make good use of agglomeration economies and attract rural-urban migrants during the rapid urbanization process.