Research On The Relationship Between Housing Price,Population Density And Industrial Structure

Since the 1990 s,China’s real estate market has developed rapidly,and the housing price has also been rising all the way.The real estate industry has become an important support for the development of the national economy.After the financial crisis in 2008,the real estate market system which was highly tied to GDP was exposed.The high prosperity of the real estate market gradually returned to the rational level,and presented the status quo of high regional differentiation.At the same time,the population issue has always been a highly concerned livelihood issue in China.With the reform of industrial structure and the rapid development of economy,the population flow is also increasingly intensified.The resulting population agglomeration effect causes constant changes in population density and the balance between supply and demand of real estate,leading to sharp fluctuations in housing prices.At the same time,housing is an indispensable consumption in people’s life,and the fluctuation of housing price is closely related to people’s life.If the housing price rises rapidly in a city,it will inevitably make the migrant population shrink back,so it will affect the absorption of talents in a city,and even produce the phenomenon of brain drain.Therefore,it is of certain theoretical and practical significance to explore the two-way influence relationship between the housing price and population flow,and between the housing price and the upgrading of industrial structure under the current development state,which can provide effective reference for the government to timely conduct macropolicy regulation and control on urban development.First of all,this paper sorts out relevant domestic and foreign literature.In the theoretical part,it briefly introduces the relevant concepts and theories based on the research,and also briefly expounds the knowledge content designed by the research methods used in this paper.Secondly,the panel data of the second-tier cities from 2000 to 2018 were used to study the fluctuation of housing price,the change of population density and the development trend of industrial structure in four different regions of Northeast China,East China,South China and North China,and the graph analysis was carried out to intuitively judge the changes of variable indicators.In the part of empirical analysis,this paper establishes a PVAR model to study the interactive relationship between housing price,population density and industrial structure,and on this basis,adds the variable index of income level to assist in better analysis.In this process,the data were tested for the stability,the optimal lag order selection,descriptive statistical analysis,regression estimation of the model coefficients using the GMM estimation method,analysis of the results using the impulse response function graph and variance decomposition,and testing whether there is a Granger causality between the variables.Based on the above analysis,the population density mainly has a negative impact on the housing price,with a positive impact in South China and a insignificant impact in Northeast China,while the housing price has a significant inhibiting effect on the population density.The upgrading of industrial structure will restrain the rise of housing price,and the rise of housing price will promote the upgrading of industrial structure.