Research On Quality Safety Risk Management Of Agri-food Cold Chain

As a country of vast territory,different geographical location of produce,difference of regional resources endowment in China has important influence on the formation of agricultural products logistics.Perishable produce as meat,poultry,aquatic products,vegetables,fruits,eggs from the origin of harvest or slaughter,fishing,would go through product processing,packaging,storage,transportation,distribution,retail,and other links and then reach the hands of consumers.For a long time,because of the lack of efficient cold chain logistics process,China agricultural postpartum loss are serious,and frequent food safety accidents occur.The formation of Agri-food Cold-chain Quality-safety Risks(ACQR thereafter)is influenced by multiple factors,and how to identify and analyze becomes a hot topic of increasing concern among the industries and academics.Hence it is essential to analyze the formation mechanism and establish a set of ACQR management system composed of risk identification,assessment,risk forewarning,so as to improve produce circulation quality and decrease the loss.On the basis of related research,the study defines the concept of ACQR as the effect on the quality goal realization due to uncertainty of agricultural products cold chain,and then proposes ACQR connotation and extension.The high complexity of the cold chain structure and the uncertainty of the external environment in the cold chain determine the existence of ACQR.ACQR is characterized by dynamism,complexity,conductivity,and social magnification.Based on TPB theory and from the perspective of microscopic viewpoint,the study identifies internal formation mechanism,discusses risk behavioral attitude,subjective norm,the relationship between cognitive behavior control and risk behavior intention and behavior intention in the impact of risk behavior in the process of mediation..It design related scale,collect data,building risk behavioral intention completely intermediary and partial mediation structural equation model,on the basis of confirmatory factor analysis on various dimensions such as risk behavior attitude.It confirms the partial mediation effects exist in the transmission path from behavioral intention to risk behavior.From the viewpoint on the theory of quality and the basis of literature review,the study puts forward 4M1E(Man,Machine,Material,Method,Environment)research framework,design related scale and collect data.Through exploratory factor analysis five dimensions are identified.The study applies first-order and second-order confirmatory analysis to compare four competitive models like first-order single factor mode(model1),first-order five factor model without correlation of all concepts(model2),first-order five factor model without correlation of all concepts(model3),second order five factor model(model4).By checking the model fit indexes,model1 and 2 have unsatisfactory fit indexes,and Model3 and 4 are not really different.The judging standard of objective coefficient method supports rationality and explanatory power of ACQR five dimensions of risk structure with man-machine-material-method-enviornment(4M1E)framework.Based on the 4M1 E five-dimensional risk structure,the safety risk assessment of agricultural products was carried out.To establish ACQR risk assessment system,determine five first-level indicators such as Man R,Mac R,Mat R,Met R and Env R,corresponding 19 secondary indexes.Using the analytic hierarchy process and entropy value method to process quantitative index,it builds ACQR evaluation model by grey system evaluation method,in order to help enterprises in selecting specific cold chain cooperation to provide decisionmaking basis.ACQR early warning is the process of early warning and active prevention for possible security risk of produce in cold chain circulation,which including monitoring,diagnosis,action,auxiliary decision-making and sound,and other functions.Inductive refined the basic structure of ACQR early warning system,based on monitoring,tracking and analysis on security risks through 4M1 E framework,establish five-grade early warning system including "no alarm,slight alarm,medium alarm,serious alarm and extreme alarm " based on the discrete choice model.This paper puts forward the risk warning system operation process,the implementation of the warning system and the countermeasures.Finally,with the research object of fruit and vegetable cold chain,the study evaluates fruit and vegetable ACQR risk to select the suitable suppliers.Also it institutes risk early warning analysis of the fruit and vegetables cold chain operation with the models through Rstudio1.0.153.Result shows double variable model has the same sensitive effect with triple variable model but better forecasting performance.According to the selected former model,the warning condition is judged as slight alarm,and the risk control system of fruit and vegetable cold chain is established based on HACCP,so as to improve standardization,institutionalization and scientization of agri-food products cold chain risk early warning work.