Research On The Future Trend Of China’s Land Finance Under The Background Of New Urbanization

Land finance is not a unique economic phenomenon in China.However,many countries’land ownership system differs from us,after under going a long process of privatization of land sale,we have completed the transition from fiscal land sale to taxation finance.Under the background of the fiscal decentralization system,local government competition and the development of new urbanization,it is the preferred behavior of general local governments that the local governments rely on land ownership or management rights to obtain fiscal revenue,it has characteristics of significant periodicity and institutional nature.This type of land-based land finance modelplays a unique role and has phased contribution to China’s economic and social development.However,it has risks in the course of operation,which raises concerns about the sustainability of the existing model.Therefore,it is necessary and practical to carry out ananalysis on the cause and trend of the current land finance model from the theoretical and practical persectives.Based on the review and review of the literature review of land finance,new urbanization,and optimal city size,the paper sorts out the development stage,development model,and dominant form of new urbanization and analyzes the evolution trend of urbanization rate,trend forecast of maturity stage and fund request under new urbanization.Based on the deconstruction of land finance,theoretical basis,historical evolution,and core influential factors,using the basic principle of the Malmquist Index,make a horizontal and vertical analysis on the regional differences of land finance.And then measure the vertical development of the region over the years and the horizontal differences between regions.According to the theory of optimal city scale,construct an optimal city scale model,and according to the availability of data,select the data of 104 prefecture-level cities,obtaining the average optimal scale of China,then the optimal total city can be calculated.And by using the intrinsic link between land transfer data and the scale of the city,calculate the future of China’s optimal land finance space.In forecasting the future trend of land finance,construct the relationship between land finance and economic growth,and with the analysis on the supply side and demand side,make a judgment of the foreseeable scale and future development trend of land finance.It led to a set of basic ideas for governance that will contribute to the sustainability of land finance development,and put forward corresponding policy recommendations.The specific work and research conclusions of this paper are as followed:First,the influencing factors or development sources of land finance can be summarized into the following aspects:fiscal decentralization refonn,local government competition,industrialization development,and urbanization development.Unlike the views of a large number of media and academe on the severe criticism of land finance and even completely negating it,we have found that land finance is far more profound and complicated than most people understand in the sense of economics.We should not completely refute the government’s actions.but instead should be scientifically analyzed and viewed in a comprehensive manner.We must have a full understanding of its historical rationality and future sustainability.Second,the level of urban economic development has a close relationship with the size of the city.The study of the optimal urban scale is very necessary.The size of a town is not necessarily the bigger the better.If it exceeds a certain scale,it will lead to uneconomical city scale and agglomeration,resulting in a series of economic,social and political issues.Based on the construction of the optimal city scale model,this paper concludes that the average size of the optimal cities in China is 2,482,100 people in 2017,so that the total population of the optimal city-scale employed population is 375 million,from which we can calculate the optimal land finance in the future.The scale is 9.375 trillion in size.It takes at least 7 years to reach the optimal land finance scale,that is,2025.Third,in a certain time frame,although the limited land available for expansion of the city scale is limited,and even the space for land finance is limited,China’s land finance is still sustainable before 2030.In the central and western regions,as the level of urbanization is accelerating,the land available for urban planning is also relatively sufficient.Accordingly,the scale of land finance is sprinting toward the potential scale,and there is still more space for the financial expansion of land finance.Land finance is still developing.Stage of growth.In urban areas of the eastern region,the scale of land finance has already entered a decline stage due to the limitation of land use scale.The timely introduction of new real estate taxes to raise fiscal revenues has practical necessity for implementation.Fourth,the solution to the land finance problem depends on the improvement of other related systems:focus on deepening the financial system reform;reluctantly matching the local government’s financial power and authority;reforming the la nd system,strengthening the supervision of the land market transactions;standardizing the rural collective land,improving the land income distribution mechanism;establishing a virtuous incentive competition mechanism,the UGB,Rural Revitalization Plan and so on.