Measurement And Analysis Of China's Pension Gap And The Empirical Study On Resolution Policy

Although the implementation of family planning policy has effectively restrained the rapid growth of population,it has played a role in promoting the acceleration of the aging process.Faced with the rapid onset of population aging,coupled with the frequent occurrence of information about pension "deficit" in the public field of vision,people are increasingly worried about "no support for the elderly,no support for the elderly",this concern is essentially a concern about the sustainability of the social endowment insurance system.From the existing system operation data,if we exclude various financial subsidies,the social endowment insurance fund in some regions has been unable to meet the expenditure,and the gap between revenue and expenditure has increased year by year.Therefore,the reason why the existing social endowment insurance system seems to be able to operate smoothly is that the financial responsibility is undertaking.With the advancement of aging,the financial burden is bound to increase.In view of this,this paper draws lessons from previous scholars' research results,uses actuarial simulation method and generational overlapping model method,calculates pension gap through mathematical programming,and incorporates new policy factors such as the second child policy,urbanization policy into the model,in order to make the analysis closer to reality,more accurate,more scientific and more reasonable.Empirical research,analysis and comparison are made on measures to alleviate the pension gap,such as fully liberalizing the fertility policy,prolonging retirement age,merging pensions,increasing the proportion of financial expenditure used for pensions,incorporating a certain proportion of profits of state-owned enterprises into pension pools,and putting a certain proportion of pensions into capital market,so as to quantify the effectiveness of various measures,not limited to the study of a single measure.It also pays attention to the collocation and use of various policies,and explores how the collocation effect is better,which is more conducive to improving the sustainability of pension plans.On the one hand,the policy aims at alleviating the pressure of pension gap;on the other hand,it pays attention to reducing other negative effects.For example,properly extending retirement age will not reduce the sense of happiness in life,controlling the proportion ofincreasing financial expenditure for pension not to exceed the appropriate level of finance,controlling the investment of appropriate proportion of pension in capital market will not expand fund risk,and the appropriate proportion of state-owned enterprises' profits,incorporating profit into pension fund pool will not reduce the innovation investment needed for enterprise development.The main research results and conclusions of this paper can be summarized into the following four aspects:First,according to the existing policies,it is found that the proportion of the elderly population and the moderate level of social pension expenditure increase year by year.Both the simulated actuarial method and the overlapping generation model method predict that there will be a pension gap in China,and the gap will gradually increase.Second,compared with the original system,measures such as prolonging retirement age,fully liberalizing fertility policy,increasing the proportion of fiscal expenditure used for pension,pension "merging",incorporating a certain proportion of state-owned enterprises' profits into pension pool,and putting a certain proportion of pension into capital market can indeed reduce the scale of pension gap and relieve financial payment pressure.Third,different measures to alleviate the pension gap are different.Compared with the original system,measures such as extending retirement age and increasing the proportion of financial expenditure used for pension have a higher degree of alleviation.Measures such as putting a certain proportion of pension into capital market can also reduce the size of pension gap,while fertility policy have a low degree of alleviation.Fourth,any single measure can not solve the pension gap once and for all or better.To solve this problem,we need to use innovative thinking to develop a combination of punches.The policy proposals put forward in this paper include five points:Firstly,at the national level,we should pay enough attention to the aging crisis and take effective measures to avoid debt crisis.Reassess the negative impact of population aging on our society and economy.At present,China has fully liberalized the two-child policy,but it is far from enough.First,government departments at all levels should formulate supporting policies to encourage fertility as soon as possible,so as to enhance the fertility willingness of the population of the right age.Second,the government takes the lead in increasing investment in medical facilities to effectively improve reproductive security for women of appropriate age.Third,the government should substantiallyincrease financial investment,increase investment in improving the quality of population and fertility level,and constantly improve the social security system for the elderly,so that the elderly can be supported.Secondly,speed up the top-level scheme design of the pension system,establish a multi-pillar pension security system,increase the sources of pension income,appropriately reduce the pension expenditure of people with high replacement rate of pension,ensure the long-term balanced development of pension,and avoid the risk of debt crisis.Establish a multi-level old-age security system based on home-based pension,community service and institutional pension,increase the source of pension,reduce pension expenditure properly on a fair basis,and prevent the occurrence of financial crisis.On this basis,we should increase the proportion of enterprise annuity and personal account,and improve the structure of pension collection and payment.Thirdly,establish and improve the pension supervision mechanism to ensure that the value of pensions is maintained and increased.Draw lessons from the experience of developed countries and combine with the actual situation of our country,establish a scientific and reasonable pension index evaluation system,carry out all-round supervision on all aspects of pension operation,and effectively ensure the safety of pension in all aspects.At the same time,there is certain inflation in China,which makes pension facing the risk of depreciation.Through diversified investment in the capital market,reasonable returns can be achieved under the premise of controllable risks,inflation can be beat,and value preservation and appreciation can be realizedFourthly,introduce automatic regulation mechanism.The automatic adjustment mechanism links the interests of the elderly and young people with economic growth.When funds are abundant,they are both more,and when funds are scarce,they are both less.Thus,a long-term stable distribution mechanism and a stable payment rate are established.Make enterprises have a stable business environment;the government has also greatly eased the pressure.Fifthly,through the necessary parametric reform,ensure the balance of income and expenditure and sustainable development of pensions.First,under the premise of voluntary gradually rise the retirement age,through certain incentive measures,to improve the willingness of workers to delay retirement.Second,adjusting thereplacement rate of pension appropriately can reduce the replacement rate of overall pension appropriately,improve the replacement rate of individual account,and keep the overall level unchanged.Third,adjusting the contribution ratio appropriately,at present the pension contribution ratio is 28%.The higher contribution ratio increases the labor cost of enterprises,is not conducive to the development of enterprises,and is not conducive to the long-term sustainable development of pension system.It can reduce the contribution ratio appropriately and promote the long-term economic development by reducing the labor cost of enterprises.Fourth,we can reform the pension calculation method and the way of issuing.We can ensure the balance of income and expenditure of pension by increasing the minimum life of participating in insurance and controlling early retirement.