Research On Rural Labor Transfer Model And External Dynamics Evaluation

Since the Reform and Opening-up,the large-scale transfer of rural labor across provinces has made great contributions to the brilliant achievements of economic construction and brought great changes to the social development.Studying the rural labor transfer is the starting point for solving various problems in the process of urbanization and industrialization,and it is also the realistic basis for promoting new urbanization strategies.The labor transfer of China shows obvious differences in spatial aggregation.To this end,this paper focuses on the differences in the rural labor inflows and outflows in 31 provinces and cities.On this basis,combined with the transfer factors affecting the rural labor,the transfer model is divided.According to the different development orientations and directions of different transfer models,this paper is discussed the multi-dynamic mechanism,evaluation system and development model of the rural labor transfer development.The result will help to deepen the cognition of the regional heterogeneity rules and the rural labor transfer process in different models.It is also beneficial to the theory of inheriting and innovating rural labor transfer.This paper uses 31 provinces and cities firstly as the basic unit to calculate the number of agricultural laborers in each province in 2009-2016 according to the actual demand of agricultural and livestock products in 2009-2016.Based on this,it is used the rural labor balance model to estimate the output of each province and city;it is used the labor balance model to estimate the number of rural laborers imported by provinces and cities.Through the decision-making experiment and evaluation test method,the transfer factors that affect the rural labor force are determined.Combined with the number of rural labors that can be exported by each province,the number of rural labor input,and the net input of rural labor in each province and city,it is used the cluster analysis to divide the model of the rural labor transfer in China.It is determined different development models and countermeasures by studying the dynamic mechanism of rural labor transfer and evaluating the transfer dynamic mechanism of different models.The main findings of this paper are as follows:(1)Estimation of the output and input of the rural labor in 31 provinces and cities.Sichuan ranks first on the absolute amount of the rural labor force output,while Henan,Anhui,Hunan,Shandong,Guangdong,Chongqing,and Jiangsu rank second to tenth,respectively.Hainan,Beijing,Shanghai,Tianjin,and Tibet rank in the bottom five.The output of the rural labor in these five regions is less than 100,000.Among the rural labor input regions,the number of input in Guangdong is the largest,and has been more than 20 million all the time.The provinces with higher input volume are Zhejiang,Jiangsu,Shandong,Beijing,and Shanghai.It can be seen that the number of the rural labor inflows in the eastern provinces has an absolute advantage.(2)Analysis of the rural labor transfer model in China.Through cluster analysis,the rural labor mobility,and regional economic and social development are related to five categories:Category I:"Ultra-large-scale cities and super-strong population agglomeration" model,including Beijing,Shanghai and Tianjin;Category ?:External Population introduction and strong economic boost model,including Jiangsu,Zhejiang,Fujian,and Guangdong provinces;Category III:relatively closed local spontaneous flow patterns,8 provinces including Shanxi,Inner Mongolia,Liaoning,Shandong,Hainan,Qinghai,Ningxia,Xinjiang;Category IV:Local population export and economic boost model,15 provinces including Hebei,Jilin,Heilongjiang,Anhui,Jiangxi,Henan,Hubei,Hunan,Guangxi,Chongqing,Sichuan,Guizhou,Yunnan,Shaanxi,Gansu;Category V:Tibet model.Except Tibet,the analysis of the contribution of the rural labor to the economic growth in various model regions is as follow,Category ? model,the contribution of the rural labor net inflow to economic growth did not pass a significant test.In the remaining ?-? models,this variable passes the significance test,which is a significant contribution to the economic growth of the regions in these three models.(3)Analysis of the dynamics of the rural labor transfer in the II-IV models.It is divided into internal and external motivations for the rural labor driving forces.The internal motivation is the improvement of the human capital of the rural labor force.The specific key factors are ideological concepts,education level,labor quality and capability,professionalism and income level.External motivations include economic development and social equity promotion.The key factors involved in social equity promotion are employment income equity,education and culture equity,health care equity and social security fairness.Because of the differences of economic development in the regions covered by the three types of models,according to empirical analysis,it is proposed different driving key factors of different economic developments.The key factors driving the economy of the second category are economic strength,economic structure,economic efficiency and economic potential;the key factors of the third category are industrial agglomeration,population agglomeration,capital agglomeration and technology agglomeration;the key factors of the forth category are the basic strength of urban and rural areas,the intensity of urban-rural linkages,the capability to cope with urban and rural areas.(4)Evaluation of three types of models,social fair promotion,economic development drive,and economic and social comprehensive dynamic,respectively.? Status evaluation of social equity promotionOn the whole,the social fairness promotion indexes of the whole country and all regions have shown a trend of growth in the vertical direction.But the regional differences in the horizontal direction are very obvious and are expanding.It is a positive correlation between the social equity promotion index ranking and economic development degree distribution in each region in general.And the degree of social equity is characterized by a gradual decline from the coast to the inland.Comparison between the national social equity index and the regional index,it can be seen that watersheds between the eight provinces and cities(Shanghai,Beijing,Tianjin,Jiangsu,Zhejiang,Guangdong,Shandong,Fujian)with other regions.The fairness indexes of the other regions after the eight provinces and cities are lower than the national average.This shows that the seven provinces and cities in these two types of models plus Shandong not only have a strong economic position,but also are correspondingly prominent in social equity.It can be seen that social equity is highly positively correlated with economic development.?Status evaluation of economic development driveIn the analysis of the Type ? model,the economic growth quality of the four provinces has been increased generally from 1992 to 2016.The economic quality development index rose from 0.1832 in 1992 to 0.3274 in 2003,an increase of 0.1442,with an average annual increase of 0.012.The growth is relatively flat.In 2004,along with the significant improvement of the two dimensions of economic strength and economic potential,the economic quality development index rose by more than 0.06,and the growth trend has been obvious since then.In the analysis of the Type ? model,the economic growth quality of the eight provinces with relatively closed local spontaneous models between 1992 and 2016 generally showed an upward trend.The factor development index was-0.5808 in 1992,and the factor aggregation index was turned negative to positive in 2007,rising to 0.03174.The increase rate is 0.61254 and the average annual increase is 0.0383.The increase in 1992-2001 is obvious,and the increase in 2002-2007 tended to be flat.In 2008,along with the two factors of industrial agglomeration and population agglomeration turning positive,and the factor agglomeration development index rose by more than 0.0124.Since then,the growth rate has accelerated,from 0.0434 in 2008 to 0.3910 in 2016,more than 8 times.In the analysis of the Type IV model,the urban-rural economic development integration index of the 15 provinces in the population-export model between 1992 and 2016 is increased in the volatility.But the development was slow,from 0.1071 in 1992 to the largest 0.2280 in 2016,only floating 0.121.?State evaluation of economic and social comprehensive dynamicIt is roughly divided into three stages in the economic and social coupling state of the second type model,that is:the first stage is in 1992-1998,in the low level coupling of economic and social development;the second stage is in 1999-2003,in the state of co-coupling;the third stage is after 2004,which the coupling degree is manifested as a transition to the system contrary state but not a stable development of the coordinated coupling state in the IV interval.The third type of model,high coordination-low development,presents a false coupling state.The degree of coupling of the Type ?model has evolved from a low level coupling to a false coupling state,high development-low coordination.