| Since 1949,the development of mechanization in Chinese agriculture experienced a tortuous process;the promotion of agricultural mechanization dominated by nation is not successful before the reform and openness.After the establishment of family-contract responsibility system,farmers have become the main body of investment and use of agricultural machinery whose process also gradually follow the objective laws.In the 21st century,labor wage began to rise in grain production and balloon since 2004.Meanwhile,the farm size presented small overall but differentiated in part and this performance accounts for the symbiosis of small farmers in majority and large-scale farmers in minority.Although agricultural mechanization in our country has made great progress,the disparities including the imbalance of region,crops and production operations do exist.At this stage,the perfection of agricultural mechanization is a herculean task and there still has quite a distance away from the goal of fully mechanized.Agriculture modernization cannot eliminate mechanization,in the background of labor wage irreversible accelerating trend and the significance of farm size promotion,agricultural mechanization become more essential.Thus,it is critical for government to figure out the way to support the long-run development.The formulation of agricultural mechanization supporting policy is based on the best knowledge of farmer's demands and choices on mechanization.Unlike the pioneering countries,our country is unique due to the form of agricultural machinery service market.Therefore,studies of China's agricultural mechanization should regard the market as an important premise.So,in the presence of the service market,how do labor wages and farm size affect farmer's agricultural machinery service demand and whether the emergence of the service market will change the mechanism of agricultural machinery investment?If the mechanism of agricultural machinery in China is exceptional,what are the impacts of the labor wage and farm size on agricultural investment?What are the characteristics of agricultural mechanization options when enlarging farm size and what is the relationship between them?In this paper,theoretical analysis and empirical test of the three topics of agricultural machinery service demand,agricultural machinery demand and mechanization options are carried out around the questions above.The answer to these questions will be conducive to fully understand the objective law of farmer's demands and choices on mechanization.This paper will use a case of grain production by means of macro and micro levels of data on the above issues to analyze,the main studies and related conclusions are as follows:Content 1:The impacts of the labor wage and farm size on demand of farmer's agricultural machinery service.The purpose of this section is to determine the impacts of labor wage and farm size on the demand of farmer's agricultural machinery service in the existence of market mentioned above,which is helpful to analyze the demand,in the future,of grain production on agricultural machinery service in China.To begin with,this study analyzes the influence of agricultural labor wage on the demand of the service by using of induced innovation theory.Then,based on the development of agricultural machinery service market in China,this study analyzes the effect of farm size and constructs the theoretical model.Employing the panel data of 25 provinces from 2004 to 2012 in China,the results indicate that the increase of labor wage can significantly promote the demand of agricultural machinery service,which is manifested in the increasing mechanical expenditure in grain production.Farm size does not illustrate significantly positive relation,but the agricultural machinery service market has significantly increased the mechanical expenditure.It can be interpreted that the development of the market has undermined the influence of farm size.In addition,the improvement of the agricultural products price and the educational level of farmers can effectively stimulate the demand for agricultural machinery.Content 2:The impacts of the labor wage and farm size on agricultural machinery demand.The purpose of this section is to determine,with the existence of service market,the impact of labor wage and farm size on agricultural machinery demand in order to be assistant to analyze the fluctuation of agricultural machinery equipment in the future market.On the basis of the analysis and empirical results of content 1,this section explains the mechanism of the agricultural machinery demand in China.The emergence of the service market in China differentiated the main body of the agricultural machinery demand,leading to the inappropriateness to apply the previous models to analyze the influencing factors of demand.After constructing the theoretical model of agricultural machinery demand according to the status quo of China,the results of empirical analysis using macro-level data and simultaneous equations demonstrate that agricultural labor wage does not directly affect the demand,but rather through influencing agricultural machinery service demand to effect indirectly;farm size has a significant direct effect on agricultural demand,especially in favor of large-scale investment,but the indirect effect on agricultural demand is not significant;agricultural machineries' prices and cost of agricultural machinerises' operation has a significant inhibiting effect;agricultural machinery subsidies conspicuously promote the demand in large-scale agricultural machinery;agricultural planting structure is a key factor as well.Content 3:The impacts of farm size on agricultural mechanization options.The purpose of this section is to determine,with the existence of service market,how the change of farm size will affect the choice of agricultural mechanization.The answer to the question will be critical to make supportive policy after the promotion of large-scale farming.This study compares the pros and cons between service purchase and the private use of agricultural machinery with the prerequisite that farm size is the core of choice.The results manifest that there is an inverted U-shaped relationship between farm size and the farmer's private machinery.With the expansion of the scale of operation,the household is likely to choose private machinery.However,if the scale of operation exceeds a certain threshold,household favors another.And,with the increasing number of family agricultural labor force,farmers are more inclined to private machinery;land fragmentation is adverse to farmers for private machinery,so that farmers is prone to service purchase;increasing prices of service and grain products will leading private machinery use.Based on the above three studies,the conclusions can be drawn as follows:from the macro perspective,the increasing labor wage has the tendency to stimulate the demand for agricultural machinery services,while indirectly motivate the needs of agricultural operations service organization to machinery demand;farm size expresses neither significant effect on farmers' demand of agricultural machinery service or indirect effect on operation organizations' agricultural machinery demand but direct effect on demand of agricultural machinery.From the micro perspective,the enlargement of farm size will change the household choice of agricultural machinery,presenting an inverted U-shaped relationship.Based on the above conclusions,this study believes that improving the agricultural service market should be the orientation of China's future agricultural mechanization development and is going to put forward some constructive policy recommendations.Moreover,the study also believes that the promotion of appropriate farm size should be synchronous with the development of agricultural mechanization. |
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