| Agriculture is an important industry related to the national economy and people’s livelihood.It can not only provide the necessary means of livelihood for the people,but also provide the necessary means of production for industry.Therefore,all countries in the world,especially developed countries,attach great importance to agricultural development.Promoting agricultural development has always been one of China’s important national policies.In December 2015,the Rural Work Conference of Central Committee of the CPC first put forward that we should focus on strengthening the structural reform of agricultural supply side.In September 2018,the Central Committee of the CPC and the State Council issued the "Strategic Planning for Rural Revitalization(2018—2022)".It once again emphasized the need to improve the system of agricultural support and protection and to build a new pattern of agricultural opening to the outside world.General Secretary Xi Jinping emphasized that "Chinese people should put their rice bowls in their own hands and carry their own food." during his visit to Heilongjiang Province in September 2018.For this reason,it is urgent to carry out further research on agricultural issues for the government and the people.Agriculture faces many risks in production and operation,such as natural,economic and social risks.When natural risks break out,the response measures of various countries are very limited.Agricultural insurance,as an ex post risk management measure,is very important.Because of the particularity of agricultural risk and the difficulty of insurance and compensation links,the implementation of commercial agricultural insurance is particularly difficult,so the operation of agricultural insurance needs financial subsidies from the government to improve the participation rate and achieve the policy objectives of the government.This is the responsibility of policy agricultural insurance.The premium subsidy of policy agricultural insurance also conforms to the non-appealable subsidy rule within the scope permitted by the WTO’s "green box" policy for agricultural trade.Since China’s entry into the WTO,the level of agricultural openness in China has been continuously improving,but for a long time,China’s agricultural trade has been in a deficit.The impact of policy agricultural insurance on the export trade of agricultural products is worth further study.From the perspective of impact mechanism,agricultural production is the basis of agricultural export trade.Agricultural export trade is the extension of agricultural production.Policy agricultural insurance is a policy of supporting agriculture and benefiting agriculture,which can improve agricultural production and promote export trade.One is to increase the output of agricultural products by dispersing agricultural risks and increasing agricultural insurance premium subsidies.The other is to improve the output of agricultural products by changing production decision-making of farmers.The third is that the premium subsidies of policy agricultural insurance belong to the category of policy production subsidies,which can stabilize prices and thus contribute to the growth of export trade of agricultural products.Based on the panel data of 31 provinces and municipalities in China from 2006 to 2016,the impact of policy agricultural insurance on agricultural production was empirically studied by using the PSM-DID method.The added value of agriculture,forestry,animal husbandry and fishery was used as the explanatory variable,and the nearest neighbor matching method,radius matching method and nuclear matching method were used to match the research samples.In order to further eliminate the impact of some factors not included in the study or not easily observed on agricultural production,after using the Propensity Matching Score method(PSM)for data processing,the Difference in Difference method(DID)was used to analyze the net impact of the implementation of policy agricultural insurance on agricultural production.The results show that the implementation of policy agricultural insurance has a significant positive impact on the growth of added value of agriculture,forestry,animal husbandry and fishery.Based on the panel data of 31 provinces and municipalities in China from 2006 to 2015 and the dynamic panel model,this paper preliminarily validates the impact of policy agricultural insurance on the export trade of agricultural products in China.The empirical results show that before the implementation of policy agricultural insurance,the impact of agricultural insurance density on the export trade of agricultural products is not significant.After the implementation of policy agricultural insurance,the density of agricultural insurance has a significant impact on the export trade of agricultural products.It shows that the implementation of policy agricultural insurance can effectively promote the expansion of the scale of agricultural export trade.In order to further investigate the depth and breadth of the impact of policy agricultural insurance on the export trade of agricultural products,based on the panel data of 31 provinces and municipalities in China from 2006 to 2016,this paper empirically studies the impact of policy agricultural insurance on the export scale of inter-provincial agricultural products through the DID method.Through the research,it is found that policy agricultural insurance can promote the expansion of agricultural export scale in general.Parallel trend hypothesis test and counterfactual test are both valid,which shows that the implementation of policy agricultural insurance really promotes the development of agricultural export trade.The results of regional studies show that policy agricultural insurance has a significant impact on the export trade of agricultural products in the western region,but not on the export trade of agricultural products in the eastern and central regions.The effect of policy agricultural insurance on the export trade of agricultural products in major grain-producing areas is higher than that in non-grain-producing areas.The results of the research on sub-products show that the policy agricultural insurance has a significant promoting effect on the export trade of farm produce,but has no significant effect on the export trade of farm produce.Based on the panel data of 31 provinces and municipalities in China from 2006 to 2016,this paper empirically studies the impact of China’s policy agricultural insurance on the types of inter-provincial agricultural exports by using the PSM-DID method,and uses the marginal expansion of agricultural exports to measure the types of agricultural exports.The results show that the implementation of policy agricultural insurance in China can not increase the export types of agricultural products.Previous empirical analysis shows that policy agricultural insurance promotes the growth of agricultural export scale as a whole.It is necessary to continue to verify the impact of policy agricultural insurance on the competitiveness of agricultural exports.Based on the panel data of 31 provinces in China from 2006 to 2016,the impact of policy agricultural insurance on the export competitiveness of agricultural products was assessed by the he difference in difference method of propensity score matching(PSM-DID).According to the theory of industrial international competitiveness and previous research experience,average crops sowing area per capita,rural human capital,final consumption rate,agricultural mechanization,fertilizer application and highway mileage were selected as matching variables,and the nearest neighbor matching method,radius matching method and nuclear matching method were used to match the research samples.In order to further eliminate the impact of some factors not included in the study or not easily observed on the international competitiveness of agricultural products,the DID method was used to analyze the net impact of policy agricultural insurance on the export competitiveness of agricultural products after processing the data with the propensity score matching method(PSM).The results show that policy agricultural insurance has no significant impact on China’s agricultural trade competitiveness index and net export revealed comparative advantage index,so it shows that policy agricultural insurance can not improve China’s agricultural export competitiveness at this stage.Because the agricultural products trade competitiveness index and the net export revealed comparative advantage index selected in this paper not only focus on the export volume,but also include the import volume.The growth rate of China’s agricultural products import is greater than the export growth rate,so the export competitiveness of agricultural products has not played a significant role.Previous empirical analysis shows that policy agricultural insurance has promoted the expansion of agricultural exports as a whole.It is necessary to continue to verify the impact of policy agricultural insurance on the competitiveness of agricultural exports.Using panel data of 31 provinces and municipalities in China from 2006 to 2016,this paper evaluates the impact of policy agricultural insurance on the export competitiveness of agricultural products by means of PSM-DID.The results show that policy agricultural insurance not only has no significant impact on China’s agricultural trade competitiveness index,but also has no significant impact on the net export indicative comparative advantage index.Therefore,the implementation of policy agricultural insurance at this stage can not enhance the export competitiveness of agricultural products in China.In conclusion,there is a positive correlation between the implementation of policy agricultural insurance and the per capita added value of agriculture,forestry,animal husbandry and fishery,which is consistent with the goal of structural reform on the agricultural supply side.Whether using dynamic panel model or double difference model,the empirical results show that there is a positive correlation between the implementation of policy agricultural insurance and the scale of agricultural exports.However,the implementation of policy agricultural insurance can not increase the export types of agricultural products,and has no significant relationship with agricultural trade competitiveness index and net export indicative comparative advantage index.This shows that although the implementation of China’s policy agricultural insurance has a significant role in promoting agricultural production and export scale,it does not play a significant role in enhancing export competitiveness.The main reason is that although the export scale of China’s agricultural products continues to increase,due to the strong domestic market demand,the scale of agricultural imports has increased faster,while the trade competitiveness index and the net export dominant comparative advantage index take the two-way trade factors into account,so the empirical results will have insignificant conclusions.However,from the point of view that the implementation of policy agricultural insurance can enhance the per capita added value of agriculture,forestry,animal husbandry and fishery,if we continue to increase the support for policy agricultural insurance,we will surely enhance the export competitiveness of agriculture in the long run.Further research on this issue needs continuous efforts in the future.According to the above research conclusions,this paper puts forward the following policy recommendations: strengthen the legal construction of agricultural insurance,ensure the standardized operation of policy agricultural insurance.Implement differentiated agricultural insurance premium subsidy policy and cultivate large agricultural exporters.We will promote innovation in agricultural insurance products and services and enhance the competitiveness of agricultural exports.Combining the policy agricultural insurance system with the agricultural product certification system is to improve the export quality of agricultural products.Implementing characteristic agricultural products insurance system is to promote the export of characteristic agricultural products. |
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