Impcat Of Agricultural Labor Aging On Production Behaviour Of Apple Households

With the world population aging,influenced by the regional development policy adjusiting,decrease of the rural population birthrate,increase of the average life expectancy,the agricultural labor aging has become a significant problem during the process of the economic transformation in China.The agricultural labor aging affects agricultural labor supply and labor productivity,the essence of which is altering the labor endowment of households with age,and then causes direct labor supply restriction and potential capital supply restriction.The production behavior of apple households is a series of economic activities which achieve production through inputting production factors.Due to apple's perennial natural attribute and economic attribute of highvalue,there are high requirements for labor and capital inputs for apple households.Thus,apple households are in a dilemma that one side is labor and capital supply restriction caused by agricultural labor aging,and another side is high requirements for labor and capital inputs to producing apple.In this dilemma,is there labor and capital supply restriction in the production behavior of apple households,and then do they impact apple households' production behavior? These are the basic problems of the agricultural technological economy field.For the importance of “food security”,researchers have paid greatly attention to the impact of agricultural labor aging on the production behavior of grain households,however,there are less attention on the impact of agricultural labor aging on the production behavior of high value producthouseholds such as fruit,vegetable,flower,which productions have high requirements for labor and capital inputs.Therefore,using a set offirst-hand household-level survey data from 745 apple households in Shanxi and Gansu province,where are the main region of apple production in China,this dissertation deeply studies the impact of agricultural labor aging on the production behavior of apply households from individual and family dimensions,includingbuilding the thermotical framework and impact mechanism by conceptual analysis and normative analysis,unveiling the character and regular pattern of the impact of agricultural labor aging on the production behavior of apply households by statistical analysis,mathematical analysis,econometric analysis,and lastly drawing the conclusions and suggestions,which could offer the reference for guiding the apple households adjusting their production behavior.Based on the theoretical framework “Agricultural labor aging—labor and capital supply restriction—production behavior of apple households—requirements for labor and capital inputs—adjusting factors inputs structure in the short-term—adjusting planting structure in the long-term—adjusting their production behaviors — break labor and capital supply restriction—adapting agricultural labor aging ”,the dissertationconsists of three parts,and the main content of each part is as follow.Part one: Theoretical analysis about the impact of agricultural labor aging on production behavior of applehouseholds.The part consists of the first and second chapter.Based on stating the specific causes for rural population aging in China,the first chapter briefly introducing research the background at the view of agricultural labor aging impacting of agricultural laborsupply,labor productivity,agricultural producing efficiency and effectiveness and the development of modern agriculture,then presenting the research problem by the apple households' dilemma for agricultural labor aging.Meanwhile,this chapter summarizes the previous theories and research views about the impact of agricultural labor aging on farmer household.The second chapter uses conceptual analysis defining the concept and essence of agricultural labor aging,the concept and characteristics of apple household' production behavior,uses normative analysisbuilding the theoretical framework about the impact of agricultural labor aging on production behavior of applehouseholdsfrom individual and family dimensions.On these grounds,according Production factor theory,Production behavior theory,Farmer theory,Factor scarcity induced technological innovation theory exploring the impact mechanism about agricultural labor aging on factor inputs behavior,farmland using behavior,technology efficiency and choice behavior,production and future producing willingness such as farmland transferring willingness,sustainable planting willingness,which could offer theoretical basis for the other chapters.Part two: Empirical analysisabout the impact of agricultural labor aging on production behavior of applehouseholds.The part consists form the third chapter to the eighth chapter.Firstly,using census data,population sampling survey data,first-hand household-level survey data,the third chapter assesses the status and characteristics about rural population aging and apple production of Shanxi and Gansu province,assesses the status and characteristics about agricultural labor aging and apple production of 745 apple households,which could offer actual basis for the latter chapters.Secondly,based on the impact mechanism of agricultural labor aging form the view of adjusting factors inputs structure in the short-term,using the statistical analysis,mathematical analysis,econometric analysis including Seemingly unrelated regression,OLS regression,One-step of stochastic frontier production function,Robust standard errors regression and Quantile regression test the impact of agricultural labor aging on factor inputs behavior,farmland using behavior,technology efficiency and choice behavior,production.Lastly,based on the impact mechanism of agricultural labor aging adjusting planting structure in the long-term,setting the binary logit model and using MLE method test the impact of agricultural labor aging onfarmland transferring willingness,sustainable planting willingness and intergenerational transmissionwillingness.Part three: Suggestions for optimizing production behavior of applehouseholds and adapting agricultural labor agingThe part consists the ninth chapter.Based on the theoretical analysis and empirical analysisabout the impact of agricultural labor aging on production behavior of applehouseholds,in order to optimize production behavior of applehouseholds and break labor and capital supply restriction for aging,the ninth chapter puts forwards some suggestions about how to develop the human quality of the existing apple growers and increase the human quantity of future apple growers.On account of the above research,the dissertation draws the following conclusions.Firstly: There are deep degree and high speed of rural population aging,the proportion of working-age rural population has fallen and elderly dependency ratio has raised in Shanxi and Gansu province,which has caused labor cost with a dominant share in the apple total production cost,and induced apple households increasing factor inputs such as agricultural machinery,chemical fertilizer and pesticide for supplementing labor scare.The average family size is small and life burden is high in the 745 apple households.The average age of decision makers is 52.62 years old,household ageing is 0.19,the main apple growers are 45 years and older.Secondly: There are direct labor supply restriction and potential capital supply restriction in the production behavior of applehouseholds.The conclusion indicates that with the decision-makers' age adding,apple households prefer to decrease agricultural machinery input,meanwhilethere are negative relationships among family aging degree and own labor input,fertilizer and pesticide input,agricultural machinery input which confirmed labor and capital supply restriction are existed in the production behavior of apple households.The farmland input is the minimum in 60 year and older growers,which tend to decrease the capital-intensive inputs like fertilizer and pesticide input,agricultural machinery input by increasing their own labor input,which means exploiting by themselves.Thirdly: There are negative relationships between labor and capital supply restriction and farmland using behavior,technology efficiency and choice behavior,production of applehouseholds.Aspect of farmland using behavior,with the decision-makers' age adding,apple households prefer to using land by the labor-intensiveway,there are negative relationships among family aging degree and the degree of labor-intensive and capital-intensive,then have hindered the farmland productivity and net productivity.Aspect of technology efficiency and choice behavior,agricultural machinery substituting labor is handicapped by its limited role,apple household mainly adopt technology change for improving technology efficiency,however,the technology choice about simply depending on increasing inputs has caused apple production in the stage of scale reward descending.Thus,farmland has the largestelasticity of output,then is pesticide,own labor,fertilizer and agricultural machinery,which indicate that labor scare has induced apple households increasing chemical inputs and then caused environment problem.There is an inverted-U relationship between decision-makers' age and technical efficiency,in which,the maximum age is 48.70,meanwhile,family aging degree has negative effect on technical efficiency.Aspect of production,there is an U relationship between decision-makers' age and net apply production,60 year and older achieve highly net production for little chemical inputs,which highlights that excessive chemical inputs not only decrease apple households' net production for industry seizing agricultural production,but also cause agricultural pollution.Family aging degree has negative effect on middle and upper production level apple households and hinder the development of moderate scale operation.Fourthly: The agricultural labor aging offers the opportunity for farmland transferring.There is an U relationship between decision-makers' age and farmland transferring-out,family aging degree has positive effect on the willingness aboutfarmland transferring-out and sustainable planting,has negative effect on the farmland transferring-in willingness,in the context of “The separation of three rights”of rural land in China,which offer the opportunity for developing moderate scale apple households and changing the way of technology choice.Based on the above conclusions,the possible new ideas of the dissertation are that should focus on the negative impact of agricultural labor aging on highvalueproducts' production behavior from the views of capital supply restriction and family labor structure.The changes of labor quality with age and family labor structure have negative impact on current production behavior and future production willingness of apple households,therefor,the dissertation puts forwards the following suggestions.Firstly,it should pay much importance on the investment of human capital for developing the human quality of the existing apple growers and increasing the human quantity of future apple growers.Secondly,it should reform the cultivate methods,research&developsuitable agricultural machinery,popularize environmental biotechnologyforbreaking labor restriction.Lastly,it should promote farmland transferring andstrengthening finance support for breaking labor restriction.