| Population aging is an inevitable result of economic and social development, all countries of the world have entered the aging society, our country has entered the aging society in 2000.With the accelerating pace of Chinese aging population, the agricultural labor began to have aging trend, and the degree of aging agricultural labor and speed to be far more than the aging of the developed countries, this is because more and more young adults from the rural countryside transferred to the town, from the traditional to the non-farm grain farming sector.This kind of phenomenon is farmers assessment based on its endowment, reconfiguration in time and space.the human resources with high quality adjust the market economy,in practice, however, accelerated the pace of agricultural labor aging in our country, break the age and quality structure of agricultural labor.Aging agricultural labor is essentially an agricultural production factors impairment, manifested by a lower level of education, physical decline, lack of innovation, etc., compared to non-agricultural labor aging, arable land is relatively small, compared with labor input less. So aging agricultural labor will inevitably lead to reducing in the level of agricultural producing, but contrary to expectations, it is this aging agricultural workforce has created China’s grain production, "Eleventh even by" great achievements, to protect the safety of our food supply.This indeed reflects the aging of the agricultural labor did not drag the hind legs of food production, but also does not expect a negative impact on the agricultural labor aging on food production is unfounded.The main reasons are as follows:First, we see food production "Eleventh even increase" is exactly staple food production, "even by eleven", one is wheat, corn overcapacity, oversupply. On the one hand is diminishing soybean yield in short supply.China’s imports of soybeans is up to the annual imports reached 71.4 million tons in 2014, breaking the 70 million tons mark, an increase of 12.7%, which is about six times that of domestic soybeans, it is 64 times times early in 1996 when imported, so food production and food production can not represent.Second, although the aging agricultural labor in the short term to protect the output of grain, but in the long run, will inevitably cause problems for food production.Arable agricultural labor is aging hand crushing, the applicability of large agricultural machinery is not strong, making agricultural machinery technology useless.On the other hand the aging agricultural labor by limiting physical energy, the output value in the long term to maintain the same level, to a certain extent, the positive effect of reducing the grain subsidies, will not be able to attract more young people into the agricultural industry interested.In order to clarify whether the agricultural labor aging will affect the country’s food production? How much impact? How to protect our country’s food production in the agricultural labor aging background? Based on the agricultural labor aging Status and food production level data to describe, analyze whether the aging agricultural labor to food production had a negative impact, with a view of the lower agricultural labor aging background to China’s grain production to make some reasonable and effective policy recommendations.Research into the following five sections:The first part is an introduction, mainly introduces the significance of background, research, research methods, lack of innovation and a literature review.The second part is the basic concepts and theoretical basis. Mainly for agricultural labor, aging, the basic concept of food production was defined, and the "economic man" hypothesis, human capital theory, the theory of elasticity of labor supply theory cobweb model and assumptions, the life cycle of agricultural labor supply.The third part is the aging of the agricultural labor force status, analyze the causes and the characteristics.China’s agricultural labor force aging trend deepened, mainly for three reasons:first, seeking to maximize total family income, the agricultural labor force is aging internal drive. Second, China’s rapid economic growth, a large number of young workers into non-agricultural sectors of agriculture. Third, population and urbanization policies, accelerate the pace of aging agricultural labor. China’s agricultural labor force in the urban-rural dual economic structure "old before getting rich", and because of the lag effect of agricultural modernization, aging agricultural labor force in agriculture accumulated experience will not greatly improve agricultural productivity.The fourth part is a qualitative analysis of the impact of aging on the agricultural labor force food production, mainly in the following five aspects:First, the aging of the agricultural labor force will directly affect the level of the supply of agricultural labor force, leading to insufficient harvest and mountain foothills of the agricultural labor supply; the second is the aging of the agricultural labor force led to the production of a single species of grain; the third is the aging of the agricultural labor force to other food production capital investment since seriously restricted role, not only restricted to household food production inputs, but also limits the national and local food production inputs; Fourth, the agricultural labor aging leads to declining quality of cultivated land, mainly from fertilizers, pesticides overuse, a lot of waste and straw burning and long-term use of shallow plowing machinery, ignore the use of organic fertilizer; Fifth aging agricultural labor decreased level of self-sufficiency in food, outstanding performance for the sharp decline in soybean self-sufficiency level, mainly due to changes in food producers identity.The fifth part is based on the survey data of Binzhou agricultural labor and food production in general statistical analysis and empirical analysis. First, divide the agricultural labor into two types:non-agricultural labor and an aging labor force, followed by comparing the basic situation of food production from the aging agricultural labor and non-agricultural labor,it can be roughly seen that the different of two types agricultural labor input and output of different agricultural labor, namely, the aging of agricultural labor of the area sown to grain, grain output, grain, labor input per unit of production, and farm machinery are significantly higher than the old agricultural labor. Through the empirical analysis found that the cultivated land area is an important factor restricting food production. Agricultural labor aging makes the output elasticity of production inputs of smaller, although on the surface of two classes of agricultural labor input elements of the output elasticity of grain production were similar, this is due to the aging of agricultural labor management of cultivated land area is far less than the old land use, agricultural labor makes the aging of agricultural labor in the limited arable land area has no apparent show differences in grain with the aging of agricultural labor skills, but once aging agricultural labor of arable land and cultivated land area quite, the aging of agricultural labor aging agricultural labor is subject to physical constraints, with the aging of agricultural labor the huge difference of grain output.The sixth part is the conclusion and policy recommendations.This part of the combination of qualitative analysis and empirical results of the fifth part of the fourth part of the proposed safeguard our food production targeted and effective policy recommendations.Specific recommendations are: (1) the potential risks are to face food production, improve food production alertness (2) implementation of land management rights transfer of agricultural labor aging, promote agricultural scale operation (3) increase targeted food subsidies, increase relative earnings grain agricultural labor (4) strengthen agricultural education and training, improve the level of agricultural mechanization... |
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